You Can't Walk to America

By David Marasco

There are many half-truths and myths in baseball. From time to time it is interesting to check to see if the Conventional Wisdom holds up against the numbers. One stereotype that is heard around the leagues is that Latin Americans don't walk as much as their compatriots from north of the border. I was wondering if this was true so I did the following:

A) I went to the back of Total Baseball V where they list the everyday players for each team baseball.

B) I decided to look at the American League over 1994-1996 (NL would throw in some headaches because the #8 hitter is walked so often).

C) I went through player by player (9 from each squad) and looked at BB and BB+AB.

D) I divided the players into two groups, those born in the Caribbean and South/Central America and everyone else. Yes, this is a bit misleading because people like Jose Canseco were born in Cuba but raised and scouted in America. When people look at my Tiger Woods-type looks the first thing they ask is "where were you born?" I tell them the truth, Geneva Switzerland. It really throws them for a loop. So place of birth isn't a very good data point, but it is the easiest thing to do here.

This is what I found: The Latin American group drew 3083 walks in 34711 (BB+AB), that is 8.88 walks/100.

The other group drew 13996 in 134413, that is 10.41 walks/100.

So Latin Americans are drawing walks at about 85% the rate of everyone else.

The first explanation to this effect would be the Slick Glove theory. Many of the players from Latin America play middle infield, where a good hitting eye isn't needed. Perhaps this is skewing the numbers. As it turns out, this isn't the case. I divided players into two groups, glovemen and non-glovemen. Glovemen are people who play at positions where defense is more important that batting, namely 2B SS and C. Here are the stats:

Glovemen
Latins: 1094/15503 = 7.06 walks/100
Others: 3256/37294 = 8.73

Non-Glovemen
Latins: 1989/19208 = 10.36
Others: 10740/97119 = 11.05

So Latin glovemen are behind their peers by 81% and the sluggers by 94%. Non-Latin glovemen walk at almost the rate of the average Latin, and the Latin slugger didn't walk as much as the average non-Latin. The Slick Glove theory just doesn't hold water.

There are five possible reasons:

A) There is an old saying in Latin baseball circles - "You can't walk to America." In other words, the scouts that get sent down are looking for power rather than a good batting eye. Sammy Sosa yes, Tony Phillips no. As a result you get sluggers coming out of the islands and south of the border, but not many patient batters.

B) Latin American culture doesn't value walks. Not to oversimplify complex social science, but perhaps walks just aren't seen as being macho.

C) There is a bias among AL umpires against players from Latin America. Note that you don't see too many umps from outside of the border.

D) Drawing walks is a technique that for most people is a learned skill. This is taught in the minors, and due to language and cultural barriers, the English-speaking players receive better instruction than their Latin counterparts.

E) Then there is a possibility raised by Joe Earls, "The Latin boy, IN GENERAL, may have become, like Clemente, the classic 'bad ball' hitter, not necessarily out of a design, but out of the habit of trying to hit anything close as hard as he could, because for so many of his boyhood swings, no Little League ump or Pony League ump was giving him first after four pitches not in his 'zone' and no teammates were saying 'Good eye, Roberto!' while they waited to hit." In other words, kids growing up in America played in Little League where a little patience could lead to a free trip to first, while Latin American kids played more sand-lot games, where hitting was the way to get on base.

The real reason is probably a combination of all five. Still, even though the numbers back up this stereotype, remember that it is only a stereotype. The same forces that have guided Ozzie Guillen to 4 of the 5 lowest full-season walk totals in history haven't hurt Rafael Palmeiro. And keep in mind that greatest walker of all time was 1/4 Mexican by blood. Most people don't know that about Ted Williams.