TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Wednesday, June 02, 2004

At-Bat of the Year Nominee No. 3: Pedro vs. Casey

The setting for today's at-bat of the year nominee is the MonkeyDome in lovely Anaheim, California. Formerly superhuman and now merely outstanding Pedro Martinez is on the mound, and it's the bottom of the third inning. Pedro has been off his game tonight, with only one strikeout and having given up four runs, in a large part due to Vlad the Impaler getting the best of him with a two-run homer in the first and a two-run double in the third.

Pedro is losing 4-2 as a result, Vlad is still sitting out there on second, and he's got Jose Guillen at first. He hit Guillen. Then he managed to get Jeff DaVanon and Raul Mondesi to fly out, but he's still at the brink of what you might call the precipice. Another hit, or an extra base hit, and he's down 5-2 or 6-2. And Pedro's pitch count is up to 50.

So Casey Kotchman steps up to the plate. Who? Casey, not the mighty Casey of Mudville or even the Mighty Casey of Cincinnati who's blistering everything right now. Casey Kotchman is a 21-year old rookie who was ranked by Baseball America as the Angels' number one prospect, and this in a highly-loaded farm system. He was called up to sub for the injured Darrin Erstad, even though he hasn't played higher than A ball until this year. He's hitting .254 with no homers in 67 at-bats coming into tonight's ballgame. Maybe it's a bit too early for him to be facing the great Pedro.

In the second inning, the first time he's faced Pedro, he fouls one off weakly and then taps one to the shortstop. Maybe it's a bit too early for him to be facing the great Pedro, especially with runners in scoring position.

And Pedro is sitting on strikeout No. 2499. One more and he's at 2500, a milestone shared by only 25 pitchers in the entire history of the game. When Pedro makes that K, he's going to be the second-quickest to 2500 Ks in history.

Wait a sec. Kotchman struck out on Monday -- the first time in 48 ABs. That was also a milestone of sorts -- not since the immortal Bob Bailor went his first 51 plate appearances without striking out has a rookie been so hard to whiff. And Bailor, it must be noted, completed his feat in three different cups of coffee in 1975 thorugh 1977. Kotchman did strike out again on Tuesday, and he's only walked three times. But still, we might have something to look forward to with Mr. Kotchman. He's got something in common with Cincy's Mighty Casey, and that's a good batting eye. Maybe we should call him the Mini Casey for a bit.

Up he goes against Pedro for the second time. Let us remember: he has seen a grand total of 2 pitches from Pedro Martinez, lifetime. By the end of the at-bat, he will have seen 17.

He takes the first three pitches, and Pedro's down 3-0. But Pedro is not one to give in. He throws in on Kotchman the next two pitches, and Kotchman fouls them off to go 3-2.

What's different about this at-bat from the ones from earlier in the season by Frank Thomas and Alex Cora that I have written about: in this 15-pitch at-bat, Pedro's throwing everything he's got. His slider, his fastball, his change, a curve, that little giddyup fastball, the straight overhand. He throws inside, outside, up, down, everywhere but in the zone. Kotchman is handling it all. He reaches, he pokes, he swings through. On the ninth pitch he rifles one down the left field line, a playable ball, but hit just a bit too hard for Manny Ramirez to field. Manny slides feet first, better to avoid injury, but one can't help but thinking: that would've been a good out to get. End the inning. End this long at-bat. But the at-bat goes on. On the 12th pitch Kochman gets sawed off and the bat shatters. Like a veteran, he takes his time getting new lumber, and lets Pedro stew on the mound for a bit. He fouls off number 13. He fouls off number 14.

In Frank Thomas' epic at-bat, he won against Darrell May by walking and running the pitch count up to the point where May lost it shortly. Alex Cora won his great at-bat with a homer, which ended up breaking Matt Clement and winning the game for the Dodgers.

The Mini Casey, though, has struck out. Pedro throws him a wicked, wicked change that swings up and drops nowhere, and Kotchman goes down swinging. The veteran has his 2500th career strikeout, and the rookie has his third.

Here's the complete at-bat: Ball, Ball, Ball, Foul, Foul, Foul, Foul, Foul, Foul, Foul, Foul, Foul, Foul, Foul, Kotchman struck out swinging.

Kotchman strikes out again against Pedro in the 5th: this time on three pitches. Career K 2502 for Pedro, No. 4 for Kotchman.

But this is perhaps this is a Pyrrhic victory for Pedro: he's run his pitch count from 50 to 65 in the course of the 15-pitch at-bat, and it's just the end of the third. The Sox rally for him, but he gives up more hits and a run in the fourth and is up to 98 pitches by the time he whiffs Kotchman to end the fifth.

Kotchman's going to face Pedro again someday. He's got 22 pitches of experience now. We'll see how the next confrontation goes.

posted by The Crank 8:36 PM

Tuesday, June 01, 2004

Barry Bonds has 36 intentionals. Let's put that into perspective. Throwing away all of his other walks, he would still be fifth in the league. Or how about this - the Arizona Diamondbacks as a team have 22 IBBs, and that's the most for any team that doesn't have Barry on their roster.

Now that it is June, let's update our look at Barry's OBP numbers. He currently stands a .616, and the Giants have 112 games left. Assume another 350 PA for Barry, and this is what he would have to do to hit certain OBP marks:

Target	Needs	Comments
600	590	Not impossible, but not too likely either
582	563	This is what he needs to break his own OBP record
553	520	This would beat out Thumper for #2
545	508	This would beat out Ruth for #3
536	500	If he can maintain a .500 OBP it's good for #4 in the Modern Era
512	459	This is Mantle, the first non-Bonds/Ruth/Williams in the Modern Era
500	441	He seems to have a lock on 500 at this point in the season
400	293	That could be done on his walks alone

Finally, the LA Lakers have reached the NBA Finals. Once again, the NBA has a team from one of the three biggest media markets in the country. When was the last time we didn't see an NBA Finals with either New York, LA or Chicago? 1995 when Houston played Orlando. In the past 25 years, those three markets have been missing four times. Some may say that baseball has a large market problem, but it's much worse in hoops.

posted by David 10:41 PM

Monday, May 31, 2004

Past Time for Great Summer Pastime

It's Memorial Day, and once again we're treated to a partial schedule of baseball games. The NL at least has a full slate of games, but in the AL six teams are out of action. And I'm thankful that this year there aren't any home games in Canadian ballparks. With all due respect to our friends up North, Memorial Day isn't a national holiday, except on days like today when there's a Stanley Cup game involving a Canadian team.

When I get elected commissioner, every team is going to play a day game on Memorial Day, the Fourth of July, and Labor Day, the three great holidays that define the summer part of the baseball season. The Hall of Fame Game will be between the two best teams from each league as the time of the game, and there will be no other games scheduled that day, and I'll require the game be broadcast on every local TV affiliate with a baseball contract.

I'll can starting the season in March and go back to having opening day every year in Cincinnati, during the day, and I'll demand that our TV network broadcast that game into every market. April 16th sounds like a good day: the season used to start in mid-April, anyway, and it's the day after Tax Day so Mom and Dad can start to relax a little. I'll end internet voting for the All-Star game and let the fans vote for pitchers, too. I'll continue the All-Star festival contest, but I'll feature the All-Star Futures game as a primetime event. I'll televise the amateur draft and let teams trade draft picks, live, and schedule it for a day when there are no major league games. The last Sunday of every month will be a double-header, everywhere.

I'll schedule the last game of the regular season on the last day of summer, and finish the post-season before Columbus Day, when it's time to close up the shutters on the summer cottages and watch the leaves turn color.

Opening Day - Memorial Day - Draft Day - Fourth of July - Hall of Fame Day - Labor Day - Last Day of Summer - Columbus Day. That's a season. Give fans predictable events to build their summer around, make baseball synonymous with the rhythyms of the season, I'll give you back a National pastime again.

When Memorial Day doesn't have a full schedule and is played in the shadow of a hockey game, baseball's the summer sport only by default.

posted by The Crank 6:27 PM

Sunday, May 30, 2004

Hot Bats at the Hot Corner

The Cubs did everything they could to make Pirates 3B (and proud new papa) Rob Mackowiac an All-Star, surrendering three homers and 11 RBI to him in the first three games of their series. And they might have succeeded, except that it's already a crowded field.

The frontrunners at this point have to be the Cards' Scott Rolen (.339/.398/.610, 12 HR, 50 RBI, and 29 R through Saturday's games) and the Marlins' Mike Lowell (.344/.425/.672, and 14/30/34 through Sat.). With Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds hitting in front of him, Rolen should be able to get 70 RBI by the break standing on his head (and is a decent bet for 80), and he's a Gold Glover to boot. Lowell will get plenty of chances to shine with Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo in front of him and Miguel Cabrera behind him.

Next in line would be the Cubs' Aramis Ramirez (.300/.348/.558 and 11/39/34 through Sat.) and the Dodgers' Adrian Beltre (.311/.337/.557 and 12/34/27 through Sat.). Ramirez drove in two today and Beltre had a 2-run double in the first against the D-Backs, so the beat goes on for them. Ramirez has moved up to the cleanup spot in the Cubs' lineup while Sammy Sosa has been hurt without missing a beat, and when Sosa comes back, look for Ramirez to make hay in the 5-hole as he did before Sammy got hurt. Beltre has been playing hurt all year, and his continued success will depend on his playing through pain, the return to health of Dave Roberts, and a return to form for Shawn Green and Milton Bradley.

And then there's Mackowiac, who has put up a .284/.356/.572 and 11/31/25 through Saturday. He's probably #5 on the list right now, but if he tosses in another 8-10 HRs by the break and some of the guys in front of him tail off or get hurt, he could sneak in there. I'd still bet on two (or maybe all three) of Rolen, Lowell, and Ramirez to make the cut this season.

5/31 Update

I plum forgot about Vinny Castilla, who should certainly be in the mix, though his power numbers are inflated by playing at Coors. You can take a look at Castilla's stats and splits and see the .450 disparity between his home and road OPS. Without looking at the other guys above, I think it's a good bet that none of them come close to this sort of home/road imbalance. We'll put Vinny at 5b for now, and assume that it'll be Todd Helton that goes to the ASG for the Rockies.

posted by Tom Renbarger 5:54 PM