60! - But Is That the Important Number?

Yawn. So Barry got to 60. It was pretty much a forgone conclusion for most of the season, besides, with the recent works of McGwire (70, 65) and Sosa (66, 63), these 60-homer seasons just aren't that impressive any more. Sure, Barry's having a good year, but lots of people have been hitting home runs in the past few years

Right?

Yes, there has been a glut of home runs in the recent past, but perhaps people are too hung up on numbers like 60 and 70 to recognize what kind of year Bonds has been having. As the sun set on his 60th homer, Barry's stats looked like this:

Games	132
AB	414
R	106
H	129
2B	28
3B	2
HR	60
RBI	115
BB	145
OBP	.498
SLG	.824
OPS	1.322

Yes, the 60 stands out like a sore thumb. After all, it does position him well on the single-season homer chart:

1.	Mark McGwire	70	1998
2.	Sammy Sosa	66	1998
3.	Mark McGwire	65	1999
4.	Sammy Sosa	63	1999
5.	Roger Maris	61	1961
6.	Barry Bonds	60	2001
	Babe Ruth	60	1927

That means that to take the top slot Barry will have to hit 11 homers in the remaining 22 games. That's a pretty tall order, but Barry has always had strong Septembers. Hitting 6 in the last 22 games seems almost like a lock, and that would tie Bonds with Sammy for the #2 slot.

But the last four numbers are also a good indicator of what kind of season Bonds is having. Take a look at the single-season walks chart:

1.	Babe Ruth	170	1923
2.	Mark McGwire	162	1998
	Ted Williams	162	1949
	Ted Williams	162	1947
5.	Ted Williams	156	1946
6.	Barry Bonds	151	1996
	Eddie Yost	151	1956
8.	Babe Ruth	150	1920
9.	Jeff Bagwell	149	1999
	Eddie Joost	149	1949
11.	Jim Wynn	148	1969
	Eddie Stanky	148	1945
13.	Jimmy Sheckard	147	1911
14.	Mickey Mantle	146	1957
15.	Barry Bonds	145	2001
	Barry Bonds	145	1997
	Harmon Killebrew	145	1969
	Ted Williams	145	1942
	Ted Williams	145	1941
	Babe Ruth	145	1921

Unlike homers, where he tends to be a little streaky, Barry cranks out the walks like clockwork. With 22 games left he'll make a run at Ruth's record of 170, and needs but 18 walks in the last 22 games to re-take his NL record from McGwire. Note that Barry will join Ruth and Williams as the only men to ever post more that one 150+ walk season.

I've calculated On Base Percentage as (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF), so it differs slightly from what is listed at ESPN (I'n not exactly sure what they are using). In any case, let's take a look at the Modern Era (post-1900) single-season OBP chart:

1.	Ted Williams	.5513	1941
2.	Babe Ruth	.5445	1923
3.	Babe Ruth	.5319	1920
4.	Ted Williams	.5256	1957
5.	Babe Ruth	.5156	1926
6.	Babe Ruth	.5126	1924
7.	Babe Ruth	.5123	1921
8.	Mickey Mantle	.5120	1957
9.	Rogers Hornsby	.5072	1924
10.	John McGraw	.5045	1900
11.	Ted Williams	.4993	1942
12.	Ted Williams	.4985	1947
13.	Rogers Hornsby	.4983	1928
14.	Barry Bonds	.4982	2001

You can look at the homer chart and wonder if Sosa and McGwire will stand the test of time. Maris is looking a little tarnished these days. No such problem with this chart. Ruth, Williams, Mantle, Hornsby, and McGraw are mighty fine company to be hob-nobbing with. Also note the dates here. Nobody has had a better season for OBP in almost four and a half decades.

Well, if being worse that a select group of hitters in OBP and posting the best numbers in nearly 50 years is impressive, then let's look at slugging percentage:

1.	Babe Ruth	.8472	1920
2.	Babe Ruth	.8463	1921
3.	Barry Bonds	.8237	2001
4.	Babe Ruth	.7722	1927
5.	Lou Gehrig	.7654	1927
6.	Babe Ruth	.7644	1923
7.	Rogers Hornsby	.7560	1925
8.	Mark McGwire	.7525	1998

That's right, only Babe Ruth has had slugging seasons bigger than Barry's this year. Barry is on pace to become the second person to ever post an .800+ slugging year, something not done in 80 years. To put this into perspective, Ruth was leading the Yankees to their first Pennant when it was last done. Bonds seems like a lock to break Hornsby's NL record, something that McGwire couldn't do in his 70-homer season.

OPS is simply OBP+SLG, a quick-and-dirty method of ranking players. Take a look at the modern top-ten:

1.	Babe Ruth	1.3791	1920
2.	Babe Ruth	1.3586	1921
3.	Barry Bonds	1.3219	2001
4.	Babe Ruth	1.3089	1923
5.	Ted Williams	1.2860	1941
6.	Babe Ruth	1.2582	1927
7.	Ted Williams	1.2566	1957
8.	Babe Ruth	1.2530	1926
9.	Babe Ruth	1.2517	1924
10.	Rogers Hornsby	1.2449	1925

Again, third all-time on a chart dominated by Ruth and Williams. Sixty is a nice number, seventy is even better, but there's so much more to Bonds' amazing season if you avoid getting caught up in the homers.