Pittsburgh Pirates 2002 Season Preview

by Matt Wall

Let's do a quick recap of exactly how awful the Pirates have been, for some perspective on the team's 2002 starting point.

They've now had sub-.500 records for each of the past nine seasons, a current Major League-worst. They tied for the worst record in the majors last year, with 100 losses, the worst record the club has had in this near-decade of futility. At one point in 2001, the Buccos were on pace to surpass the worst Pirate season ever, the unbelievably awful 1952, and were even on pace at two points in the season with the 1962 Mets for the worst season of all time. The club was second-worst in NL ERA (at 5.05) and second-worst in runs scored, at just barely four per game. The farm system is ranked as either the worst or next to worst in the majors, depending on which expert you ask.

It's enough Worsts to open a Braunschweiger factory. The conventional wisdom is that the Pirates club, therefore, is due to improve. While one can't argue with the basic probabilities involved, there are still systematic and fundamental problems with the organization that make the prognosis for better baseball poor. My best guess is that they'll lose 95 again this year, but at least look better doing it. The offense and defense will be modestly better, overall, which isn't saying much; the pitching will be ugly, albeit at least significantly younger and more promising in the long run than it has been of late.

Injuries and career-off-year drops in effectiveness among some players did contribute to the poor performance in 2001. One can reasonably expect any combination of a healthy Adrian Brown (separated shoulder), Jason Kendall (nagging wrist problem corrected by surgery in the off-season), Armando Rios (season-ending torn ACL two days after being traded from SF), and/or putative ace Kris Benson (Tommy John surgery in May, although he's not due to return until mid-May 2002 at the earliest) will result in an improved lineup.

Given the awful front office management by Cam Bonifay prior to his overdue departure from the GM's job last season, it's a wonder new GM Dave Littlefield hasn't extended the housecleaning a bit further. The frequency of injuries the Pirates suffer has been higher than the expected numbers for years, and not just at the major league level. Talented minor league hitters seem to magically lose their skills at AAA or the majors. Clearly the training, coaching, and preparation of all players and the handling of the pitchers in particular needs to be looked at. To give Littlefield some slack, though, there are so many problems, he probably hasn't had time to address even a fraction of them.

The off-season moves -- other than providing some healing time for the hospital ward -- aren't going to provide any immediate fixes.

Pokey Reese was signed as a "bargain" free agent to play second-base full-time, and he will provide vastly improved defense up the middle. But there's no reason to think he'll discover plate discipline in an organization notorious for the lack of same, playing for a manager who in his previous job was the hitting coach for these same pathetic Pirates. Reese and shortstop Jack Wilson will have the highest double-plays made to hits ratio in the majors, you can bet on it (I just invented that stat just now!) Reese, it must be noted, even with his atrocious 2001, outproduced the various Pirates' incumbents at second, who also combined to rank -- you guessed it -- worst in the league in fielding at the position. So Pokey's an upgrade no matter what.

The only other signing was Mike Williams, whom the Pirates apparently re-hired on the fallacious theory that they had to have a "proven" closer. The fact that Williams is only "proven" because he got the job by default from the Pirates in the first place apparently didn't register, nor did the fact that the more effective and cheaper Josias Manzanillo was available, nor the fact that a bullpen by committee can save or not save games just as effectively as an expensive veteran with only one pitch. So one can't really see this as much of a move, either way.

The Pirates also shipped off their best pitcher, Todd Ritchie, who threw two near-no-hitters in 2001 and was the rotation's only double-digit winner. In return they got White Sox veteran Sean Lowe and a relatively promising, youngish Kip Wells. (One suspects the Pirates would have gotten more for Ritchie had they shipped him at the deadline last year -- they did, after all, get the much higher-upside Tony McKnight from the Astros for the likes of Mike Williams, and Rios and prospect Ryan Vogelsong from the Giants for Jason Schmidt.) There's nothing wrong with Wells as a prospect, but at 24 and without a dominating fastball or a huge repertoire, he optimistically projects as a decent middle of the rotation guy in a few years.

For the long run, there are reasons for Pirates' fans to have some hope. PNCPark turns out to be a rather extreme pitcher's park -- more so than the ballpark splits would indicate, as the Pirates got a homefield advantage in dinky hits because of the vagaries of the changing field conditions. Thus improvements in defense and speed will help the club as it builds up its cadre of pitching prospects. Since Lloyd McClendon loves to run (another Pirates' worst: worst stolen base percentage in the league - a 44% caught stealing rate, including an inexcusable 9 CS at third base!) it gives the Pirates a chance to capitalize on their park while adapting to their manager's proclivities. If Littlefield can plan a roster around the park, and get the purse strings loosened a little when the Meares, Bell, and Young mistakes are paid for, he might yet be able to make a decent, even contending club in a few years.

Batting and Fielding

The lineup stacks up like this:

		Career OPS
Adrian Brown	CF	.700 (864 AB; OBP .364)
Pokey Reese	2B	.671 (.747 in career-best '99)
Brian Giles	LF	.969
Aramis Ramirez	3B	.774 (.885 in '01)
Armando Rios	RF	.860
Jason Kendall	C	.824
Kevin Young	1B	.770
Jack Wilson	SS	.550
-----------------------------
Derek Bell	RF	.757
Craig Wilson	RF/C/1B	.979

Some comments:

- At this writing, the club insanely insists that Derek Bell is going to compete for time with Rios (despite the fact Rios has favorable career platoon splits, and Bell does not). The lesson of the fallacy of sunk costs was not apparently learned from Pat Meares and Derek Bell last year -- this announcement from the Pirates' braintrust can only be viewed as hoping desperately they'll be able to get a few threads of silk out of this particular sow's ear. He likely earned his last shot by being a bit of a gamer, especially in the field, despite his almost historically-bad year. Derek has no more than a month of bad at-bats before he's consigned to the nether regions of pinch-hitting duty, though, this time permanently.

- Adrian Brown is still relatively unproven, since he's never had a full season at the position. The club is high on him, though, and he's at least an average defender in CF. He's no Juan Pierre, but expect a similar kind of game from him.

- Jack Wilson hasn't shown much sign he's going to develop into much of a hitter. Think of him as a slightly less-skilled Rey Ordonez in the field and a slighly more-skilled Rey Ordonez at the plate. In his defense, he appears to be smarter and more self-sacrificing at the plate than Rey -- more of a team player -- so he'll likely stick at the position for quite a while. I remain unconvinced this is the best use of a starting spot, however, but the Pirates' pitchers need all the help they can get.

- Craig Wilson worked on his first base defense in winter ball this year. The good news is that he apparently made some progress; the bad news is he didn't pass the Mendoza line and hit only a couple of dingers in over 100 AB in the Dominican. However, the latter might be dismissed as symptomatic of a very long year for Craig. Wilson's a for-real hitter, possibly the best on the club after Giles, despite some initial reports about his big loopy swing and propensity to go down on breaking stuff. He's just modern: he takes plenty of walks, and his doubles and homer rates are awesome (in limited playing time over the course of the season, he was behind only Barry Bonds and Mike Hampton in HR/AB percentage.) He's also faster than you might think from his minor league SB totals and slow-guy positiong in right, at first, and at catcher, and his alleged defensive problems do not appear to be that bad. When he sticks to a position, in the manner of Wade Boggs, I expect he'll grow into an adequate-or-better defender. Expect Wilson to supplant Young at first, possibly as early as this year if (paradoxically) Young has a good enough year to make him tradeable again, and certainly to slide down in the order to cleanup or fifth when he finally sticks at a position.

- Brian Giles had a truly exceptional year last year and hardly anyone noticed; I'm not sure it's rational to expect him to repeat, but somehow I do. Adding a healthy Rios behind Giles and Ramirez certainly makes the batting order much more respectable.

- With the exception of Rios, the club is all average or better defensively relative to the league, and Rios isn't horrible. Kevin Young and Aramis Ramirez have been known to struggle, but the former isn't as bad as he was last year and the latter is much, much better than his reputation (his major problem is losing concentration from time to time, a trait that was in noticeable ebb towards the end of last year.)

- A-Ram should continue to blossom. Last year was a breakthrough, not a fluke. He's hurt by the ballpark quite a bit, though.

Bench

One of the reasons the Pirates were so truly atrocious last year was one of the flimsiest benches of the decade, combined with a manager who loved to use it. This year's bench doesn't look any better.

Chad Hermansen, he of the "can't miss prospect" label, is out of options and will likely make the club as a fifth outfielder (or be released late in spring training). The club gave him a rare second tour at the Arizona Fall League this year, and he did well enough to get the plane ticket to Bradenton. When you can't beat Derek Bell out of a job, something is wrong. I don't doubt Chad doesn't still have a lot of talent, but he's not going to learn plate discipline in this organization at any level, and needs to get the heck out of Dodge. Rob Mackowiak is the likely fifth (sixth? seventh?) outfielder, an agreeable kids and who was stretched to utility roles for the Bucs last year, but really isn't a candidate for a full-time job on any team; a classic four-A player.

Abraham Nunez and Warren Morris, last year's starting duo up the middle, will continue to provide subpar defense and even worse hitting off the bench. Morris has a little pop but it's getting a bit late to expect it will develop into something useful. Nunez is occasionally pretty good in the field, but is such a zero at the plate he's likely going to be skipped over for the double-switches. Mike Benjamin and Pat Meares are still technically on the roster at this writing; Benjamin could be marginally useful since he can play three infield positions, but was never that strong at the plate in his prime. The Pirates can't afford to give Meares the roster spot he's completely uselessly occupying; I doubt seriously Meares will be on the club in mid-March.

Keith Osik returns as the least-worked backup catcher in the league, and will lose even more time to Craig Wilson and possibly JR House or Humberto Cota. For some bizarre reason, the Pirates seem to remain convinced that just because Osik can also play third base, he's extra valuable as a bench guy. He's the worst use of a roster space of any player in the league, unless you count picking up Kendall's dry cleaning as a skill.

The Pitching Staff

The rotation stacks up like this right now:

Dave Williams
Kip Wells
Jimmy Anderson
Tony McKnight
Sean Lowe (swing man)

Kris Benson will reclaim the top spot when he returns, bumping whoever's worst at that point into the bullpen or Nashville. McKnight might be considered too inexperienced to make the club out of spring training, but I think sending him back to AAA is a mistake, and perhaps the Pirates will agree: the remaining learning he has to do should be done on the major league level. I think he's the real jewel on the staff in terms of upside.

Anderson was helped mightily by PNCPark, and while one can't be very high on him at this point, improved defense and catching and even a little help from the coaching staff will help him improve to a back of the rotation guy. Maybe. He was mishandled by McClendon last year, who unnecessarily yelled at him a few times and attacked him in the press. I liked him before last year's struggles because he kept the ball around the plate, but unless he in turn limits the very high number of ding-dongs he gives up, he won't have any more chances to prove he belongs in the majors. Sticks for now because he's a lefty and the park loves lefty groundballers.

Williams is a smart, tough little (OK, he's 6' 2", but somehow he looks small on the mound) cookie who has persevered to the majors despite not being the classic pitching prospect most scouts want to see. Of course, he was helped by being a lefty and not having much competition in the Pirates' organization, but I like him. As his arm lengthens out with more IP, he could be a very good #3ish type control pitcher, and has that ultra sleeper potential if he develops another pitch (I'd like to see a better changeup from him, given the low speed fastball he tosses). However, I expect him to have wear and tear problems this year unless Lloyd manages his pitch count appropriately; he looked tired a lot late last year.

Lowe's a veteran, of course, and is best used as the long man in relief, but he'll probably win a starting job and do no worse than any other Pirate starter.

There's some talent here, but not a lot of solid experience and no reason to think there are any breakthrough candidates here. They all need experience and good coaching. In the meantime, they'll get hammered (on average). Waiting on Benson is not a great idea: recovery from Tommy John is not swift, nor was Benson fully developed as yet when he went down.

Bullpen

The relief corps is neither particularly distinguished nor experienced, and will miss the steadying eighth inning work of Josias Manzanillo (another decent free agent the club let get away).

Mike Lincoln was really outstanding in about a half season's work in middle relief. He was probably the hidden MVP of the Pirates' pitching staff (Wins and Saves are cruel numbers to middle relievers on bad clubs.) He's one of an array of converted starters in the Pirates' bullpen this year -- a good thing for a club that needs spot starters so much -- but his major credential is he came from outside the Pirates' organization. I'm pretty high on him, and he's probably destined to become a very good eighth inning man. No reason not to think he won't be the star of the pen again this year.

Bronson Arroyo is kind of a slop pitcher, and slipped in and out of the rotation last year as the Pirates looked for any kind of answer. So he'll certainly be available for long work or the occasional start. He's a likeable kid, but his career numbers and his repertoire don't suggest much upside.

Joe Beimel (L) was one of the prime beneficiaries of the spate of Pirate pitching injuries last year, getting 115 IP when he probably belonged in AA. He's a local Duquesne University product, and the Bucs have shown a propensity to hang on to local heroes maybe a bit too long (cf. John Wehner). He hangs a lot of balls out there but occasionally had the odd streak with perfect command. I don't know what to make of his long-term chances, but he's going to pile up at least another 100 IP in the bullpen this year, learning on the job.

Damaso Marte (L) is a product of the Mariners' organization, another good sign for any pitcher on the Pirates' staff. His star was once higher; he had decent K/BB and K/IP ratios in the minors but got sidetracked, traded to the Yankees, trans-traded to the Pirates, and then hurt, so at 27 his major league book is still wide open. I expect he'll settle into the spot-one-out-lefty role for the Pirates fairly quickly, and he has a better chance of sticking there than of winning a rotation spot. There's very little evidence to go on, but I do think he'll stick as a decent major leaguer.

Mike Williams (closing) has one and only one good pitch, a slider that frequently doesn't even cross the plate. He has to throw more full counts than any reliever I've ever seen, let alone a closer, and I'm counting several years of suffering through Mitch Williams. His stats are very deceptive: he dodged a ton of bullets last year, and gave up a lot of baserunners. He's the kind of pitcher who when he's off is terrible, and when he's on, a smart hitter who pays attention to the scouting reports and who lays back a little will beat. He'll still get his 25 saves, of course, because of the silly way the save rule works (did you know that 98% of all three-run leads in the ninth are protected, major-league-wide?) but he's my best candidate for an apparent implosion in his stats among the corps of suspected closers (Jose Mesa, et alia).

The Pirates also have a bunch of journeymen and four-A types among their spring-training invitees, and odds are one of them will stick on and not be particularly good.

Help from Below?

The Pirates don't have a heckuva lot ready to help them in the minors, and any roster substitutions you see will likely come from the perennial four-A / journeymen types parked in AAA or waiver wire pick-ups.

They have two really terrific pitching prospects, Bobby Bradley and Sean Burnett, who will both likely stay at AA all year (Altoona could have a better pitching staff than Pittsburgh). Josh Fogg, acquired from the White Sox in the Ritchie deal, and Ryan Vogelsong, acquired from the Giants in the Schmidt deal last year but starting the year injured, are more likely to provide some quality IP than anybody else, although probably not before 2003.

They also have two pretty decent catching prospects. The highly-touted power-hitting JR House could probably displace Kendall right away if the club had the chutzpah to ease House in as a part-timer. They won't until late season, though, or if Kendall struggles for some reason. House had an off year in AA and wasted an incredible amount of time grandstanding about playing quarterback for West Virginia, and tricked the club into signing him to a longer-term contract, despite needing more experience. But he still looks like a pretty good major league catcher, maybe eventually in the (good year) Todd Hundley mode. Humberto Cota is also an excellent defensive catcher with enough offensive skills to replace Keith Osik now.

The guy you're most likely to see make a jump up from the minors is Tony Alvarez. He hasn't been above AA yet, but he's got that speed/defense profile combined with a gungho attitude McClendon loves, and he hits .300. Too bad he walked only 15 times all last year; that .300 average will blind the Pirates to his continuing pitch selection weakness, and it seems likely he'll get eaten up by major league pitching if he gets called up too soon. Then again, what recent Pirate has ever learned plate discipine from the organization at any level? (Jason Kendall learned it someplace else, I have no doubt, and even he backslid last year.) Let us not forget the similarly-skilled but more experienced Tike Redman, who had the starting job in Pittsburgh for part of last year. He was a poor man's Adrian Brown, though, and is turning into a poor man's Tony Alvarez while the Pirates are desperate for power, not speed, so that slides him pretty far down the depth chart.

The deep sleeper is 2001 draftee John Van Benschoten. JVB was a great hitter at Kent State and an occasional relief pitcher. I think he's actually ready to hit at the major league level. Trust the Buccos to take a polished college hitter and turn him into an inexperienced minor league pitcher. Yep, he's been converted to a full-time starting pitcher, although he's allegedly going to continue to get some AB as DH in the minors. Because he's got the talent to hit in the majors now, I think perhaps the more enlightened Littlefield administration will eventually see their error, and it's always possible they could reform sooner than later.

The Bottom Line

Their health, defense, and offense are bound to improve, and the Pirates should at least have a more stable line-up. The defensive gaffes that enraged their fans and stymied their pitchers should decline. The baseball will look crisper. But the lineup is still not even close to league-average production, and the pitching staff got younger and less experienced in the off-season. It's hard to see this club winning more than 70 games, and they'll be lucky to do that only because the Brewers and Reds are in the same division.

Ten Years Ago...