Dog Days Diary

While many others fade a bit as the season grinds on, the Mariners John Olerud has a good streak, with several homeruns and multi-hit games. An older analyst, who presumably has seen both men play, says, "Olerud is so much like ol' Mickey Vernon... you know, hits those drives from line to line." The comment sparks interest and curiosity because both players are favorites. Immediately in mind are tall, left-handed first basemen who both: (a) hit .350 or better (Olerud twice and Vernon once) (b) won AL batting titles (Vernon twice and Olerud once) (c) hit 50 doubles in a season (once each) and (d) exhibited a batting average volatility similar to the recent Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The last point requires some explanation. If one takes 10-year segments out of each player's career, one sees Vernon going from a .353 championship to .265, then to .242, then back up to .290-.300 for three years, followed by a fall to .251, and then a leap to another title at .337 --- all of this without significant injury or loss of playing time. With Olerud, we see .284 followed by a .363 championship, then a four-year stay at .274 to .294, followed by catapulting to .354, then back to three years in the .280s to .290s. As of this writing, he is over .300. If he stays there, it will be the only time he has been at .300 without being over .350.

Given the numbers and all-field batting styles, it is tempting to look upon them as similar, or comparable, players. But they are very different. Vernon, at 6'2", 185, was a bigger player in the '40s and '50s. Olerud, 6'5", 215 or so, is big, period. Olerud has much more power. He has passed 200 homers in 13 seasons while Vernon finished with 172 in some 18 full seasons. Vernon ran vastly better than Olerud does, stealing 137 bases and ringing up 120 triples duriing his career. Olerud has only about a dozen of each to date. Both have good rank in runs scored; Olerud passed 1,000 in August and should be well by Vernon's 1,146 by the time he retires. Olerud walks much more than Vernon did; if this season ends as scheduled, he should be about 200 ahead of Vernon's 935. This translates to an on-base-percentage around 15-20 points in favor of the current player, well over .400 to the elder's .393. Finally, the longer balls put Olerud some 50 points ahead in slugging average, at approximately .475. There are enough intriguing similarities so that we don't have an apple and and orange here; it's more like an orange and a grapefruit.

Searching for exactly comparable players is fun, but full of dead ends. Barry Bonds will probably pass Willie Mays on the homerun list, but as he closes in there, he also approaches his godfather in several other categories, such as runs, doubles, and rbi. He has also narrowed the batting average gap to eight points, but is already far ahead in walks and steals. If many of these numbers come together by the time Bonds hangs 'em up, will we say the two are similar players? Of course not. They are markedly different, as those of us who have seen them both in action will attest. Career totals are intersting to play with in exercises such as this, but we should never discard style and personality and surrounding conditions. Ballplayers are really like snowflakes, each and every one unique, and that is one of the game's great blessings.

Alex Rodriguez explodes, hitting .571 with 6 homeruns in one week. There is much talk in support of him as the AL MVP. Maybe, but we really ought to reserve judgment until we have a completed season. Texas is not the worst team in baseball, as seven other clubs have worse records. A-Rod also has help from Pudge and Palmeiro, if not from his pitching staff, but his performance reminds us of other "Lone Rangers" from the past.

There was Lefty Carlton with the Phillies in 1972. His 27 wins for a cellar team added up to 45% of all that club's victories that year - still a Big League record. But the nomination here for the one-man team of the past 50 years goes back that far, to the 1951 St. Louis Browns.

That club was by far the worst in baseball at the time, it was the worst since the late 1930s and until the early Mets were enfranchised a decade later. It was the only team to lose 100 games, finishing 46 out in the AL and 10 behind the last of the rest. No regular player who appeared in 100 or more contests hit better than .261 or more than 15 homeruns. The highest RBI total was a blistering 55, and, yes, this was when owner Bill Veeck signed and sent to bat the midget, Eddie Gaedel.

In the midst of this wreckage stood right-handed starting pitcher Ned Garver. The man won 20 games, lost but 12, and finished with an ERA of 3.73. He completed 24 of 30 starts, leading the league in that category, and was credited with 37.5 of the Browns' victories. Most impressive, but that's not all. He also hit .305 on 29 for 95, with a homer, nine RBI and even a steal. He appeared in 16 other games when he wasn't pitching, as a pinch-hitter and -runner, and, in all, played in slightly less than one-third of all the games on the schedule.

Cynics say no good deed goes unpunished. In Garver's case, how true; the next year he was traded to the Tigers... and guess who lost 104 games and finished last?

Surely there are those, maybe from west of the Hudson River, who cannot help but gloat at least a little about the travails of the Mets. They recently lost 12 straight and Bobby Valentine lashed out at folks supposedly accusing him of wanting to be fired. Just a bit earlier, owners Wilpon and Doubleday aired dirty laundry rregarding a "rigged" value of the franchise as Doubleday sought to be bought out. Higher powers intervened, a price was agreed upon, Doubleday apologized for any "suggestions" of irregularity, but the whole affair was an embarassment and fanned strike-prone flames surging at MLB ownership and accounting.

If the Mets have been knocked off a pedestal, it's some of the Eastern media who put them there. Baseball Weekly, otherwise an enjoyable and informative publication, has been "Met-merized" since January. Mo Vaughan and Robby Alomar would slay the boring dragon from Atlanta and Al Leiter would be the new Whitey Ford. ESPN TV (not radio) was also tooting the horn. Most TDA followers know the numbers and the standings. One winces watching Vaughan's struggles around first base, and he and Jeremy Burnitz have struck out over 220 times. Alomar has been average, which isn't where he should be, and Roger Cedeno has stolen only a third of the bases expected. Who is to blame? Players, Manager, or Administration? We don't know. We do know, now, that it is not a very good team.

Let's hope they are all still playing when you read this. Jimmy Carter's nice offer to mediate was also brave, but he is not a sitting President with a good chance for reelection. George W. Bush is. Naive as it may appear, perhaps, if the 11th hour is reached, he could take a few minutes and give both sides a firm nudge.