San Francisco Giants 2004 Season Preview

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The Giants, like their neighbors across the San Francisco Bay in Oakland, are underrated by baseball prognosticators year after year. This year, their chances of conquering their division are as much a function of their being in a weak division as it is that they are a good team. From the vantage point of late spring training, I predict that the Giants will win the NL West but lose the first round of the playoffs.

That is, unless the baseball gods smile on them and their two key hurlers, Jason Schmidt (17-5, 2.34, 208 K in 208 IP) and Robb Nen, who was recovering from shoulder surgery and didn't pitch at all last year. Schmidt required elbow surgery soon after tossing a two-hit shutout in Game 1 of the NLDS last year, and the Giants are dependent upon both of them being in top shape. All winter long the reports were that Nen wouldn't be ready to go on Opening Day and maybe not until the break, but he insists now that he will be ready for April 4, against the pitching-rich Chicago Cubs. Likewise, Schmidt is looking good in the Cactus League. The Giants rotation (an aging Kirk Rueter; sophomore Jerome Williams, who has a huge upside but is asked to do a lot in only his second season; newcomer Brett Tomko, 13-9 in St. Louis, but with a 5.28 ERA, who the Giants hope will improve in what is probably the most pitcher-friendly stadium in the bigs; and Dustin Hermanson who struggled in St. Louis, but pitched pretty well in 6 late season starts with the Giants) is fairly thin after Schmidt.

It's like this: if you have a healthy Jason Schmidt, you have one of the best starters in baseball, but it you don't you have a team that is going to struggle to return to the playoffs. As for Nen, the Giants let Tim Worrell, in his first year as a closer (38 saves, 2.87 ERA) after a long and successful closer as a middle reliever/set-up man, walk, laying all their hopes on the recovery of Nen. If Nen isn't ready when the season starts, they probably will have to rely on Felix Rodriguez (8-2, 3.10) who has put five fine seasons together for SF but does not have the make-up needed to close--a polite way of saying that he'll often allow a couple of baserunners before rearing back and nailing the next three batters.

Around the horn: We have Gold Glover J.T. Snow at first, lead-off man Ray Durham at second, Neifi Perez at short and Edgardo Alfonzo, along with first and third base backup Pedro Feliz, who will no doubt see a lot of duty again this year.

Snow has battled injuries throughout his career and was limited to 103 games in '03. Still, he hit .273, with a career high OBP of .387. He has hit as many as 28 homers and twice has driven in 100+ runs, but in 330 ABs last year hit only 8 homers and had 51 RBI. This will probably be his final season as a regular but he still is a gem with the glove. Durham has played well in the Bay Area, first in '02 with the A's, and last year with the Giants, after a good seven year run with the White Sox. Like Snow, he lost a lot of time to injuries last season, but otherwisee has been everything the Giants wanted: a reliable lead-off hitter who gets the job done at the important keystone position. The right side should be in good shape if Snow and Durham are healthy.

The biggest concern is the loss at shortstop of durable, long-time Giant Rich Aurilia. Neifi Perez is a creditable fielder but his bat lacks Aurilia's pop, as well as the gutsyness Rich brought to the team. Thir base is manned by Edgardo Alfonzo (.259, 13, 81), who struggled early in the season as he adjusted to his new team. His second half stats--.296 with 48 RBI--were reminiscent of the 52 homers and 232 RBI he hit with the Mets in '99-2000. Still in his prime at 30, he should be more of an asset this year. Perez is knocking at the door, looking for a regular job and last year he demonstrated his versatility, playing four positions and hitting in all 8 spots of the batting order.

The outfield, of course, revolves around Barry Bonds, who will turn 40 this summer and is jsut 56 homers short of Babe Ruth. In winning his record 6th MVP he hit 45 homers in 390 at bats. He became the first player ever to have three straight .500+ OBP years and the first since Ruth to slug over .700 three straight times. Beyond the impressiveness of the raw numbers, there is the excitement he generates every time he steps to the plate. And although he is not going to play 162 games, don't forget that last year he missed a lot of games dealing with his dying father. Having that trauma behind him, there is no reason to think he won't have another great season. The only drop-off has been in his defense.

Marquis Grissom mans center field and had a nice comeback year, enjoying being reunited with Felipe Alou, who had him in Montreal, where he had his most productive years. Marquis hit an even .300 with 20 homers and 79 RBI. At 37 he's not as fleet as in the past, but he still plays a decent center, combining great instincts with 15 seasons of experience.

Right field is as problematic as shortstop, featuring a platoon of Michael Tucker (.262, 13, 55 with KC), an average hitter but a good fielder who can spell Grissom in center. The lefty Tucker will share the position with Jeffrey Hammonds, who was highly touted when he first came up with Baltimore a decade ago. However, with the exception of a stellar season with Colorado, where even Mario Mendoza would probably hit .300, Hammonds has not lived up to his early billing. Maybe one of Tucker and Hammonds will improve under Felipe Alou but right field looks to be a soft spot in an otherwise strong outfield.