San Diego Padres 2004 Season Preview

by Anthony Mrse

Trevor Hoffman - He's back

With the Padres about to begin their inaugural season at Petco Park, there is quite a bit of excitement surrounding the recently maligned organization. Stemming from the acquisitions of outfielder Brian Giles, pitcher David Wells, and catcher Ramon Hernandez, the Padres feel primed to put the 90+ loss seasons of the last two years behind them. However, the overall health of the team is questionable, and the Padres may end up being their own worst enemy in the 2004 campaign.

The first dilemma of the new Padre season is also the hot topic of discussion in San Diego: How will the fans get to the new ballpark? Petco Park's Open House was held March 6th and 7th, needless to say, the Padres' new home is very impressive. Situated in downtown San Diego, the $450 million, 46,000 capacity stadium offers views of the Coronado Bridge to one side and a view of San Diego's downtown to the other. While not original, the old meets new theme of Petco park works well. The stadium incorporates the 90-year-old Western Metal Supply Company building in left field and features a Daktronics 80' x 40' LED display scoreboard. Several specialized gardens are located throughout the stadium, and the main entrance delivers a Spanish Mission theme. However, the park is not without some disappointments. Despite the majority of aesthetic successes, Petco Park has a very commercial feel to it. When seated in the bowl of the stadium, it's hard to look in any direction without coming face to face with some sort of advertisement. Then there is the parking...

The former home of the Padres, Qualcomm Stadium, spoiled fans with a 19,000+ capacity onsite parking lot. Not only is Petco Park located in the most traffic-ridden section of San Diego, but also the total number of on-site parking spaces is just 2,500 according to an article in the San Diego Union-Tribune. There will be thousands of additional spaces which will be reserved for game-goers within a 20 minute walk or short trolley ride of the stadium, but it's clear that public transportation will be crucial in delivering fans to the games. Anyone who has lived in Southern California knows that public transportation here is very much a hit and miss proposition, and finding and using it can sometimes prove to be only slightly less painful than having a cavity filled or visiting the DMV. In some areas of San Diego, a trip to Petco Park could involve as many as three different forms of transportation: a car ride to a train station or bus stop, a bus or train ride to a trolley car, and a trolley or cab ride to Petco. Many fans will end up parking at Qualcomm Stadium, then take public transport over to Petco Park, which will undoubtedly make some question the purpose of the new stadium. To the Padres' credit, they have attempted to make the transition as painless as possible, releasing pamphlets and providing information concerning access and parking through television spots. How well restricted access and parking sits with the Friar faithful will be seen in the coming months. Of course, the hope is that fans will adapt, but there is the looming potential that the Padres will end up playing in one of the most beautiful empty stadiums in the Unites States.

To go with the new stadium, the Padres will be clad in brand new navy blue, sky blue, and light tan colored uniforms. The inspiration for the colors was taken from the local beaches and from Padre uniforms of the recent past. While the choice of colors has received support from the ball players, it is questionable as to why the Padres continue to choose to clad themselves in blue, the color most baseball fans in Southern California associate with the Dodgers. A return to the traditional Padre brown would have been nice to see, especially given the significance of 2004.

The Padre front office had a very productive off-season, keeping their keystone players while managing to address the weaknesses of the past two seasons. Here is a look at 2004 Padres around the horn. 

Starting rotation: The Padres most glaring weakness of the 2003 season was the lack of a number one starter who could effectively pitch into the late inning. The off-season acquisition of David Wells was a direct response this problem. Wells' command of the strike zone is uncanny, averaging less than a walk per nine innings pitched in 2003. His miserly approach to issuing walks contributes to his overall efficiency as a pitcher. It's this attribute that has allowed him to average 6.9 IP per start and complete 4 games last season. To put this in perspective, Wells' 2003 complete game total doubles the entire output of last year's Padre starting rotation. On the down side, Wells will be 41 this year, and with two back surgeries in his past, it's almost a given that he will break down some time before season's end. If and when this does happen, the bulk of the pitching responsibility will fall on the shoulders of Brain Lawrence, Jake Peavey, and Adam Eaton. How well these three fair will determine the sort of season the Padres will have.

While Lawrence, the ace of the Padre staff in 2002, struggled through most of last year, he managed to recover nicely over the last two months of the season. He posted a 2.66 ERA in August and September, citing the late season improvement to limiting the use of his main strikeout pitch, a hard slider, and relying more on his sinking fastball. He also experienced some elbow soreness mid-year, which undoubtedly affected his ability to retire batters. As long as he is able to avoid any ailments that limit his delivery, Lawrence should enjoy a productive season pitching out of the #2 slot.

Jake Peavey and Adam Eaton seemed to be on the same rollercoaster ride in 2003. Only two other pitchers in the National League surrendered more homeruns than the 33 Peavey conceded. While known to force things when he doesn't have his best stuff, Peavey can be overpowering when he has command of his change-up and mid-90's fastball, as evidence by his lifetime average of over 7.5 Ks per nine innings. 2003 was Adam Eaton's welcome back season after having reconstructive surgery on his right elbow. Although his numbers (9-12, 4.08 ERA) weren't spectacular, his fastball velocity reached the mid-90s: always a great sign for a pitcher returning from elbow surgery. If Eaton can manage to stay healthy and pitch consistently, he could post a 14 Win year. The last spot in the rotation will belong to recently signed Ismael Valdez, Sterling Hitchcock, or possibly Ben Howard.  

Bullpen: Rod "Shooter" Beck was a perfect 20 for 20 in Save opportunities last season. Despite missing the 2002 season after having Tommy John surgery, Beck signed with the Padres in 2003 and provided a much needed shot in the arm, stabilizing a once shaky bullpen. His split-finger fastball strikeout of Barry Bonds on route to recording a Save against the Giants was one of 2003's season's highlights. Being 14 Saves shy of 300, Beck will probably see some opportunities to close out games in 2004, however his main role will be as set-up man for Trevor Hoffman.

After missing most of the past season due to a shoulder injury, Hoffman returns as the Padre closer. He appeared in 9 games at the end of 2003, and while he managed to effectively retire batters, his mound presence wasn't as strong as in years past. As the season progresses and his arm strength increases, Hoffman should begin to reclaim his 2002 form, where he saved 38 games and was considered one of the premier closers in baseball. 

Catcher: The Padres lose the services of catcher Gary Bennett for coming season, who rejected his minor league assignment in favor of free agency. While Bennett's hitting was a sore spot in the Padre lineup, he seemed very in tune with the Padre pitching staff and showed quite a bit of defensive prowess, especially when it came to stopping pitches in the dirt. Bennett was also involved in one of the most well publicized moments of the 2003 Padre season when he mixed it up NHL-style with St. Louis outfielder Albert Pujols. The feeling going into the 2004 season is newly acquired catcher Ramon Hernandez will adequately handle defensive duties as well as provide a fair amount of offensive pop in the back half of their line-up. All in all, the Padres did quite well by trading outfielder Mark Kotsay for Hernandez and outfielder Terence Long. Kotsay had been plagued by back problems for the better part of the '03 season, while Hernandez assembled a very fine offensive season in Oakland, batting .273 and finishing 4th among all catchers in homeruns. Hernandez also brings the experience of catching an extremely talented pitching staff in Oakland, where his 3.48 catcher's ERA was the lowest in the American League. Back up catching duties for the Padres will be handled by the experienced ex-Blue Jay backstop Tom Wilson. 

Infield: The Padres will enter the 2004 season with the same infield which ended the 2003 campaign: Nevin, Lorretta, Burroughs, and Greene. After hitting a career high 41 homeruns in 2001, first baseman Phil Nevin's injuries have limited him to only 25 round-trippers over the past two years. For the Padres to be successful, their clean-up batter will have to remain healthy and continue hitting as he did towards the end of 2003, where he posted a .585 slugging percentage in the month of September.

Second baseman Mark Loretta's hitting was one of the few beacons of light during the 2003 season. His .314 batting average ranked 9th in the National League, and his hit total of 185 established a new Padre second baseman single season record. With aspirations to continue the success of last year, Loretta will bat 2nd behind Burroughs in the Padre lineup.

Sean Burroughs' .286 batting average was good enough to lead all National League third basemen. The 23 year old will bat leadoff for the Padres in 2004. Burroughs' hustle and hard playing attitude have made him a favorite in San Diego, and his glove and solid arm have gone a long way in solidifying the Padre infield. While his power numbers remain modest, Padre talent scouts feel that the 27 doubles Burroughs hit in 2003 will translate into future homeruns as the hitter matures.

Shortstop Khalil Greene joins Burroughs on the left side of the diamond. Greene has been touted for his defensive skill and quick bat, posting batting numbers of .288/.346/.442 in Portland. The Padres maintain high hopes that Greene will be their shortstop for many years to come.  

Outfield: The Padres expect to have an outfield of Brain Giles, Ryan Klesko, and recently acquired Jay Payton for a bulk of the season. However, Payton has been experiencing hamstring problems, and Klesko's preseason bating average of .219 and his zero to date preseason homerun total leads one to believe he is not 100%. Plagued by shoulder problems though most of 2003, Klesko took the last month of the season off to have surgery and get an early jump on his recovery. He moves to the outfield from first base in 2004 and is hoping to put last season's career low .252 batting average behind him.

Payton comes to the Padres from hitter friendly Coors field where he hit 28 homeruns and batted over .300. While playing at Petco, Payton will see a decrease in his power numbers, but, as long as he remains healthy, should prove to be a valuable asset to the Padre lineup.

Despite having to give up the highly touted left-handed pitcher Oliver Perez, Giles was a brilliant late season trade acquisition for the Padres in 2003. Born in nearby El Cajon, Giles is one of baseball premier hitters. Although knee problems kept him from huge power numbers in 2003, he nevertheless managed to slug above .500 and hit just one point shy of .300 in 2003. If the three stay healthy, a 3-4-5 combination of Giles, Nevin, and Klesko should keep opposing N.L. West pitchers awake at night. 

While the new-look Padres started the spring with high hopes, their success in 2004 will be primarily determined by the health of the ballclub and the performance of the Padre's middle three starters. With two weeks left to go before the beginning of the season, Phil Nevin is questionable for starting day with shoulder problems, Jay Payton has hamstring problems, David Wells has experienced tightness in his back, and it looks as if Ryan Klesko has yet to fully recover from offseason shoulder surgery. While several analysts consider the Padres be a favorite in their division, there are many pieces to the puzzle that need to align in order for the Padres to be a true post-season threat.  

Padre 2004 season record prediction: 80-82