Oakland A's 2004 Season Preview

Will a flood of players follow Tejada's departure from the A's?

For most of the past half-decade I have grumbled that pre-season predicitions by the so-called experts have underrated both Bay Area teams. We'll touch on the Giants successful run over that period later next week, but the small market A's (whose first of four straight playoff appearances was labelled "an aberration" by Bud Selig) even have a name for their strategy, based on last year's best seller by Michael Lewis called "Moneyball." It's a cost-conscious, stat-driven approach to building a team, and it adds and subtracts several players each year. While the A's followed the formula this past winter, it appears that they lost more than they gained. That, combined with the renovation of division rivals Seattle and Anaheim, makes me skeptical about my favorite team this year.

One could say that the 2004 A's season began last April when ownership announced that they weren't even going to bother trying to sign 2002 MVP shortstop Miguel Tejada because they couldn't afford him. Tejada, who had been a member of the A's family since he was an underfed shoeshine boy in the Dominican, signed by them as a teenager and nourished and taught the fine points of baseball at their camp in the DR, went into shock at the news and took a couple months to get back on track. Although he finished with typical Tejada numbers (.278, 27, 106) and led the A's to their fourth straight post season, the damage was done.

Take the 2003 A's and subtract Tejada and you have a team badly in need of offense, especially since they also lost one of the game's best catchers, Ramon Hernandez (.273, 21, 78 and an excellent defensive backstop). They still have one of the two best rotations in the Junior Circuit (Boston being the other), but they lost number 4 starter Ted Lilly (12-10) and their third talented closer in three years: Keith Foulke, who saved 43 games, while winning 9 and dropping only one. Less dramatic losses were outfielders Chris Singleton, Terrence Long, and Jose Guillen, who flopped both offensively and defensively. While I am not as upbeat about Oakland this year as I usually am, and while the ghost of the spirited and beloved Tejada will haunt the 2004 A's, leave us not forget that they were expected to fold a couple of years back, when Jason Giambi departed for New York. Tejada carried the team on his back to the 2002 division title. Maybe this year three-time Gold Glover Eric Chavez, who has knocked 95 homers and driven in 324 runs the past three seasons and is this year's marquee free agent-to-be will turn it up a notch and become an MVP himself. Or Jermaine Dye, at 11 million per year the most expensive Athletic, will overcome his recent health problems, recover his powerful swing and hit like he did in KC and his first year in Oakland, when he too was good for 30 homers and 100+ RBI. He reported to camp in the best shape of his career, looking buffed and running like the wind. Even if these two vets come through, there are plenty of other holes that need plugging. Lacking the money to go out and purchase a super star, they are attempting to use enough good players to compensate for the loss of one great one. And it's not like they were an offensive powerhouse last season when they won 96 games. They were 12th in batting, 9th in runs and 10th in OBP, a stat GM Billy Beane deems extremely important.

So, beyond Chavez and Dye, what do the '04 A's look like? Rising star Hernandez is being replaced by the serviceable Damian Miller. In any case a downgrade from Hernandez, they hope he'll be closer to the all-star he was for the 2002 Diamondbacks than the flop who hit .233, 9, 36 last year. The generally reliable Scott Hatteberg, who slumped a bit last year but does get on base and is a solid clubhouse presence on a team full of newcomers, is the first baseman. Second baseman Mark Ellis is excellent on 'D' but was hit by the sophomore slump at the plate after showing some promise with the bat in '02. Shortstop Bobby Crosby obviously has some big shoes to fill. No one expects another Tejada, but he is a good fielder with soft hands who drove in 90 runs and hit .308 in Triple A last year. An interesting side note is that his father Ed, a one-time big leaguer himself, was the A's scout who signed Jason Giambi. The infield is rounded out with Chavez at third. Erubiel Durazo, the DH, is another hitter with power who they are hoping will improve a so-so 2003. All-time Dodger home run leader Eric Karros, in the autumn of his underrated career, will back up Hatteberg at first in his first Oakland season and will be a pinch hitter opponents will not want to face.

Dye was not the only disappointment in the outfield last year; the entire outfield was a mess. As we mentioned, three of them are gone. The A's are placing a lot of their hopes on new center fielder Mark Kotsay, who they acquired from San Diego for Hernandez. He may be the leadoff man they have been looking for. He hit in the .290s the three seasons prior to last year, when he hit .266. He's no Rickey Henderson, but appears to be an upgrade over fan favorite T. Long, particularly on defense. Left field will be manned by another newcomer, Bobby Kielty, who was traded from Toronto for Lilly. He's patient at the plate, as a .367 OBP in three seasons shows. Returnees Eric Byrnes and Billy McMillon will be the outfield back-ups, or replacements if any of Dye-Kotsay-Kielty flops.

The overall strategy is that if Chavez can have his breakout season, Dye returns to his old self, and some of Ellis, Hatteberg, Kotsay and Durazo can improve by, say, 5 homers and 15-20 RBI, and Karros and the other bench players can have an occasional breakout, then they can statistically make up for the loss of Tejada. The one thing the A's can pretty much count on is their rotation, and it is because of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito that they remain contenders. While the Big Three are as good as any trio in the game and their low ERAs (Hudson, 2.70; Mulder, 3.13; Zito, 3.30) show that they pitched well, all three suffered from bad luck last year. Hudson was 16-7, but easily should have won 20. He had eight no decisions in games that he left with a lead, only to have the bullpen blow the game. Zito had a particuarly rocky season, slipping from a gaudy 23-5 that won him a Cy Young in '02, to 14-12. Again, his 3.30 ERA shows he pitched well, but he also had several no-holds, as well as a lack of run support. Mulder (15-9) appeared to be on the way to his second 20-win season, but in a start on August 21 he left the game with a bum hip which turn out to be a season-ending stress fracture. Despite the visit from the Boogie Man, the three stars, all of whom are just reaching their prime, still went 45-28 in 95 starts, with a composite 3.03 ERA. They will continue to be tough.

The most hopeful new arrival aside from Kotsay is their new #4 starter, Mark Redman (14-9, 3.59 with the Marlins). He didn't receive much attention on the eventual world champs, what with Dontrelle Willis and Josh Beckett dazzling the public, but if he can pitch as well in the pitcher's park in Oakland as he did in Florida, the A's rotation just got that much deeper.

Even the number five spot shows promise. 2003 rookie Rich Harden (5-4, 4.46) was a little uneven last season, but had some brilliant starts after arriving late in the campaign. This could easily be a rotation with five double digit winners.

The flaw in the pitching department is the closer. Every year they seem to lose their closer--Isringhausen, then Koch, now Foulke. Why they flee is an interesting question (to which I have no answer) but this year Beane was unable to find another closer. He picked up a fire-balling southpaw from Seattle (868 K's in 883 IP), veteran Arthur Rhodes, but Rhodes spent most of his 13-year career in middle relief or as a set-up man. In the 61 save opportunities he has had, he saved only 17 games, a wretched record by any standards. There are some decent arms in this pen, especially Ricardo Rincon (8-4, 3.25), followed by Chris Hammond (3-2, 2.86), who came back after a four year absence from the majors and Chris Bradford (7-4, 3.04). Jim Mercir and Chad Harville are average. Hopefully they can hold more games for Hudson and Zito this year.

There they are, an interesting, troubled club that despite it all will be in the race, even if it is going to be harder for them this year. A great rotation, a decent bullpen, with a dubious closer, an MVP-quality third baseman, some good hitters and an improved defense, with a downgrade at catcher. It will be a good race this year in the AL West.