New York Mets 2004 Season Preview

"Those who don't know history are forced to repeat it." We all know Santayana's famous words. Unfortunately, it is not the whole truth. When we look at the New York Mets, a better quote to turn to is the one that says the generals are always fighting the last war.

As their dominant team crumbled at the end of the '80s, the Mets chose between two young assistant GM's.They took the one who was better known for his administrative skills. He tried to put together a team of big names through free agency and trades, most notably Bobby Bonilla, Brett Saberhagen and Vince Coleman. The team sank into expensive oblivion and the Mets turned in the other direction, eschewing big names and building through the farm system with Joe McIlvaine as the new GM. Once again, there were high hopes until misfortune hit them and they fulfilled the dreams of orthopedists rather than fans. The triumvirate of Isringhausen, Pulsipher and Wilson never materialized. At about the same time, circumstances and a push from Nelson Doubleday brought Mike Piazza to the team. They turned back to the established veteran system, which took them to the World Series. But as that team crumbled, the big name acquisitions, Mo, Alomar, Cedeno et al. began to look like Bobby Bo and company. Once again, the Mets are turning the other way, working from within and eschewing the expensive big name star. Every few years they turn from one extreme to the other, appearing to try to escape from their most recent mistake.

That is where we now find ourselves, entering a new era of small ball and build from within. Suddenly, one of the best young offensive players in the game, with an arm like Clemente, does not fit into "the plan." I will say more about Vladimir later. For now, the point is that there is no single formula for success. All the plans in the world do not replace good judgment. You can be stupid in many ways.

Two things are bothersome about the current Mets ownership. The first is that they seem to be addicted to bargains. A good bargain is a wonderful thing, but those who pursue bargains obsessively can pick up some incredible clunkers. Again, you have to be smart, not just pursue bargains. In one sense, their recent search for hidden gold in injured players, Astacio and Vaughn, affected their plan in terms of Guerrero, who had back trouble last year. The second troubling trend was demonstrated in their pursuit of a general manager. They did not want a single strong general manager, ie Minaya, but preferred a split role. In itself, I suppose that's a defensible structure. The concern is that it was motivated by a desire on the part of the owners not to have a strong GM who could stand up to them.

Despite all these misgivings, I think the Mets made a couple of great moves over the winter. The first was Rick Peterson, the pitching coach. I have heard it said that Peterson's success came because he had great pitchers in Mulder, Zito and Hudson, but the A's also had some role players on that pitching staff who were having mediocre careers before and after their stay with Peterson. He is particularly important because the Mets will have some good young pitchers coming up in a year or so, led by Scott Kazmir and Matt Peterson and probably bolstered by this year's draft in which the Mets have the third pick.

The second great pick-up is Mike Cameron. There are two things that are very appealing about Cameron. The first is his defense. According to the Bill James Handbook (not written by Bill James, but using his stats), Cameron has far and away the best "range factor" in the major leagues, well ahead of Andruw. It's a stat with some questions, since it probably is affected by the type of pitching staff. Fly ball pitchers will probably increase an outfielder's range factor. Nevertheless, it demonstrates his place amongst the elite centerfielders at getting to the ball. Cameron also has a hidden advantage. Mets fans are used to seeing great offensive players come to Shea and lose their ability to hit the ball. Cameron is coming from one of the few major league parks that is more pitcher friendly than Shea. Interestingly, Piazza was one of his few predecessors who also fit that mold, coming from Dodgers Stadium. We can expect at least the same offense from Cameron as he got in Seattle and possibly more. He's a real bargain.

In "Little Matsui" we have a known and an unknown. The known is his fielding. Fielding ability is independent of the strength of the opposition. If you can field well in one league, you'll field well in another. I've never seen him play, but all the knowledgeable people who have rave about his play at shortstop. The unknown is his offense. It's difficult to project offensive production from the Japanese leagues because the sample has been so small. It would seem that the smaller ball they reputedly use favors power and that the power numbers translate less well than the contact numbers. I wouldn't want to even venture a guess as to Matsui's offense, particularly at Shea; but, he'll probably do as well as the Mets collection of second basemen from last year. That's who he is effectively replacing offensively with Jose Reyes moving from short to second. Between the two of them, they should have quite a bit of range up the middle, although, I for one will be holding my breath hoping that the inexperienced Reyes doesn't get hurt at the pivot position.

The Mets plan was to emphasize pitching and defense to match their ballpark and their successful teams of the past. The problem is that their pitching staff is good, but not great. A young Glavine and Leiter would have met the formula, but now they are still very good, but no match for the young starting pitchers on the Cubs, Marlins or Astros. In a couple of years, we may have another corps of young aces. Kazmir has as high a ceiling as any Mets pitching prospect since Gooden. Let's hope when they arrive that they are of the Seaver, Koosman, Gooden, Darling variety and not Izzy, Pulsipher redux to send us back to another scramble for big names.

Glavine will be interesting to watch. The Mets are speculating that having Matsui, Reyes and Cameron behind him will help Glavine retain his form. There's sense in that. He will, of course, be a year older. We all will, but at certain points in a career it becomes more important. What is intriguing about Glavine is the question of whether he is a "Tommy John pitcher". Many years ago, Bill James wrote about Tommy John pitchers. I can't find my old copy and don't remember all the details. They were lefthanded pitchers who gave up a lot of hits, few walks, held baserunners among other traits. I'm not sure if they were ground ball pitchers. I think they did get a lot of double plays. In any case, I don't think Glavine's a perfect fit. He walks a little too many. I'm not sure about his ability to hold runners. Nevertheless, he may be close enough. What is interesting re Glavine is the one remarkable outcome measure for Tommy John pitchers. They exceed their team's tendency. With a good team, they have a won lost record better than the team's, and with a bad team they have a record even worse than the team's. It is a possible "explanation" of sorts of Glavine's wide swing from the Braves to the Mets. Indeed, he had an excellent record during the short spurt the Mets had in August when Reyes sparkplugged the team. The problem with this "analysis" is that the Mets as currently constituted, could be a .500 team, sending a Tommy John pitcher in no particular direction.

In fact, this looks like a middle of the road team at best, with decent pitching, good fielding and mediocre offense at best. No team playing at Shea will excell offensively, but this team's offense will not excite anyone anywhere. Matsui and Reyes will lead off with speed and, hopefully, a high on base percentage. The heart of the lineup will be Cameron, Floyd and Piazza. This would be adequate if Piazza was five years younger. He's a Hall of Famer and will hit well, but he's no longer in his prime. Playing some first base may help him. If Floyd stays healthy, they'll have hope of scoring runs from day to day. Jason Phillips showed a good bat last year. He won't hurt a rally. Wigginton is still a question mark offensively, although he certainly is a gritty player you like to watch. Right field will likely be a platoon of Shane Spencer and Timo/Garcia. Timo is better as a pure platoon hitter but forces your hand in the late innings because he can't hit lefties. Garcia is not a pure platoon hitter. The starting pitching is good, but not spectacular at this point, with Glavine, Leiter, Trachsel, Seo (who you hope will be helped by Peterson), and another young player or Scott Erickson (not). The new pitching coach is the wild card here. The relief pitching should be decent, but as usual will have extraordinary pressure with a team and park that leads to close, low scoring games. Looper is a power pitcher and they usually do better at Shea.

All in all, it looks like a rebuilding year, whatever they want to call it. No season begins without hope and few end with hope, but all in all this looks like a team that will surprise at times, but is not elite. If this team gets into the playoffs, then these guys are geniuses.

Finally, a word about Vlad. The Mets argued that their judgment was based on his bad back. Given their history and tendency to use it in a misguided fashion this would fit after their fiasco with Mo. On the other hand,there is a suspicion amongst fans that the owners don't want to spend on big names. It is quite apparent that Vlad is very different from Mo when the Mets acquired him. He is on target for a Hall of Fame career, and he is early in his prime. In that sense, he is closer to Piazza when the Mets first got him, although Piazza was, on the one hand, a little older, and, on the other, coming from a pitcher's park. Vlad is coming from an excellent hitter's park. On the other hand, he fits the mold of the few hitters who have done well at Shea, a contact hitter with power. I refer to Rusty Staub, Keith Hernandez (who had less of the power, but hit the gaps) and Piazza. Nevertheless, you could find a comparison that argues for not signing Vlad. That would be Mo Vaughn when the Angels signed him in the late nineties. He was also one of the most feared hitters in the game, right in the prime of his career, with a potential physical vulnerability, his weight. Unlike Vladimir, he was a one dimensional player. Ironically, Guerrero was signed by the same team that signed Mo Vaughn a few years ago. Perhaps their generals do not fight the last war.