Minnesota Twins 2004 Season Preview

by Tom Renbarger

The Minnesota Twins are coming off back-to-back AL Central championships. But unlike last season, when they had their returning roster from 2002 remain largely intact, budgetary constraints have forced the Twins to revamp both their rotation and bullpen, in addition to trading a couple of key players from the lineup. How does this year's version stack up?

The top of the rotation will be familiar. Brad Radke will be the Opening Day starter. Venezuelan lefty Johan Santana will be the #2 starter, though he may have the best stuff of any the Twins' rotation. Kyle Lohse is a solid #3 guy. The Twins overcame a 7 1/2 game deficit in the AL Central standings largely on the strength of the second halves these three had. Radke came on strong after rediscovering his changeup, Santana was inserted into the rotation just before the Break due to injury to Rick Reed and never looked back, and Lohse overcame a midseason lull to finish the season as strongly as he started it. Santana is coming off of offseason arthroscopic surgery on his pitching elbow but is expected to make a full recovery. Each of the Twins' top three starters has the ability to make a run at a 20-win season, and the hopes of an AL Central three-peat will rest to a significant extent on their shoulders.

The back end of the Twins' rotation is a cause for concern. Gone are veterans Reed and Kenny Rogers, and Eric Milton and his $9 M salary was traded to Philadelphia. The Twins are hoping Joe Mays can regain his 17-win form from 2001. Mays is another year removed from elbow surgery that took away big chunks of his '02 and '03 campaigns. This year we'll really know whether he's really made it all the way back or not. The fifth spot in the Twins' rotation is wide open. Carlos Silva, who came over from Philly in the Eric Milton deal, will be given a shot at the #5 spot, as will veteran Rick Helling. Carlos Pulido, who returned to The Show last season with the Twins after a nearly decade-long absence, started a couple of games with for the Twins after they clinched the AL Central. His stuff is roughly comparable to Jamie Moyer's, but if he can match Moyer's brains and guts (and straight change) he could sneak into the Twins' rotation.

The back end of the Twins' bullpen has also undergone major renovation after closer Eddie Guardado (Seattle) and setup man LaTroy Hawkins (Cubs) left the team as free agents. Joe Nathan, acquired from San Francisco for All-Star catcher A. J. Pierzynski, will most likely be the Twins' closer on Opening Day. J. C. Romero and Juan Rincon will be the primary setup men for Nathan. Romero has closer's stuff but had a disappointing 2003 campaign after having a standout 2002 season. Rincon worked his way into the Twins' plans after picking up Romero's slack and becoming a steady middle reliever. Australian Grant Balfour will be in the mix along with whichever two of Silva, Helling, and Pulido that don't crack the rotation. Jesse Crain is the Twins' future closer, but may not quite be ready for The Show this season.

The Twins' lineup will be largely familiar. The infield will see Doug Mientkiewicz at first, Luis Rivas at second, Cristian Guzman at short, and Corey Koskie at third, just as in the last two seasons. LF Shannon Stewart came to the Twins at the Break last season from Toronto in exchange for Bobby Kielty. CF Torii Hunter and RF Jacque Jones round out the outfield. Rookie C Joe Mauer, he of the #1 overall pick in front of #2 overall pick Mark Prior in 2001, will replace A. J. Pierzynski. Matthew LeCroy, who led the Twins in SLG last season, will be the primary DH, and can also catch.

If I had my way, the Twins' lineup would look something like this:

LF - Shannon Stewart
1B - Doug Mientkiewicz
3B - Corey Koskie
DH - Matthew LeCroy
CF - Torii Hunter
RF - Jacque Jones
C - Joe Mauer
2B - Luis Rivas
SS - Cristian Guzman

I suspect that one of Rivas or Guzman will be slotted into the 2-hole, however. Rivas did show some surprising power while hitting in second after the Break last season. Stewart, Mientkiewicz, and Koskie are the Twins' most selective hitters. LeCroy, Hunter and Jones have the highest ceiling for SLG. Mauer in time could be as good as any of them, but he'll probably start the season around 7-8th in the lineup unless he really knocks 'em dead in the spring. Rivas and Guzman are in the lineup for the glovework they can provide up the middle. Reserves include outfielders Lew Ford, Michael Ryan, and Michael Restovich, all of whom enjoyed some success in limited playing time last season. Justin Morneau will be the backup 1B, and could see time at DH. Michael Cuddyer will start as Corey Koskie's backup, and he could also log time in the outfield. No replacements for utilitymen Denny Hocking and Chris Gomez have emerged so far, though former Cub Augie Ojeda will likely find a place on the Opening Day roster.

An interesting theme for the Twins will be to see if there are any more extra levels their regulars can reach, or have we gotten the measure of them based on their performances in the past few seasons. For instance, Torii Hunter has hit 27, 29, and 26 homers the past three seasons and he's slugged .479, .524, and .451 for those years. Is he a 25-30 homer guy with no extra ceiling above that? He turns 29 this season, so we may well find out the answer to whether there's another breakthrough for Mr. Hunter. Mientkiewicz, Koskie, and Jones have all established profiles that are similarly level over the last three seasons, and they turn 30, 31, and 29, respectively, this year. Assuming that Mauer plays like the Rookie of the Year candidate that everyone expects, the Twins' lineup will consist of a string of solid players who may or may not have another level of performance to attain. This will probably be good enough to keep the Twins in the thick of the AL Central race, but another runaway title will only happen with unexpectedly good performances from a couple of their established frontline players.