Los Angeles Dodgers 2004 Preview

by Robert Mrse

This is the end times... for baseball the "Dodger Way".

The 2004 Los Angeles Dodgers are a team in transition. Yes, in many ways team's roster resembles that of teams past: light hitting, and emphasis on pitching and defense; but the new foundation of the Dodgers, new owner Frank McCourt and new General Manager Paul DePodesta, appear on the verge to make significant changes the way the Dodgers have been traditionally run.

McCourt, a Boston businessmen, purchased the Dodgers from News Corp in January and has pledged from the start that purchase is principally about "Baseball, Baseball, Baseball". McCourt stresses innovation in ways to run the ball club and said that he was going to act quickly and decisively, even going so far as to promise a big time bat to a to a team that needs two or three. Soon, President Bob Graziano and General Manager Dan Evans were dismissed of their roles. The change had begun.

McCourt hired Paul DePodesta as the new general manager. DePodesta has admitted that he does not have all the answers yet, but was committed to work with the present Dodger brain trust to find how to best improve the team. DePodesta has worked with the Cleveland Indians and Oakland Athletics, the latter as Oakland's general manager Billy Beane's right hand man. It was there that Billy and Paul developed a strategy of player management that flies in the face of traditional Dodger methods. In Oakland, they value statistics greatly in player evaluations, and like to draft proven college players over high school phenoms, a direct contrast to the Dodger way, which has traditionally leaned heavily on scouting and have always looked to high schools as a great source of young players and pitchers. It will be interesting to see how DePodesta interacts with present scouting director Logan White, whose last two amateur drafts have significantly improved the Dodger farm system.

The McCourt sale was not approved until late January, far too make significant changes to the roster. That responsibility belonged to former GM Dan Evans. Evans did little to improve the talent of the ball club, but it is unclear whether his hands were completely tied. In his few interviews, Evans insisted that the Dodgers were under the same constraints as last year, trying to keep the payroll under the luxury tax, but the biggest contract offer was to Juan Encarnacion for 2 years at $8 million. There were reports that the Dodgers were interested in Vladimir Guerrero, but sources say that Bud Selig discouraged McCourt, who was rumored to be in constant contact with Evans, in the Dodgers pursuit of the prized outfielder, noting that he may not gain league approval of the sale if the Dodger payroll was too high. Talks were then said to be ceased and Guerrero signed with southern California rivals, the Anahiem Angels. Once again, the neighbor from the south outshined the Dodgers in the off-season; last year with the 2002 World Championship Trophy, this year with the coveted Guerrero wearing Angel Red.

The Dodgers however have some things to look forward to. Manager Jim Tracy last year took a team which had a worse offense than the lowly Detroit Tigers and, with the help of the pitching staff, made them an 85 win team. The perception of Tracy is that he is a passive manager who doesn't force the action, particularly on offense, however the Dodgers were 4th in Stolen Base attempts and 3rd in sacrifices last year. Tracy has a knack for putting players in the best situation to succeed. This was evident in the past seasons: Paul LoDuca in 2001, Eric Gagne and Dave Roberts in 2002, and Todd Martin, Guillermo Mota and Jolbert Cabraera last year. You can expect Tracy to again squeeze a couple of extra wins again this season beyond what the Dodgers are seemingly capable of.

Even with David Ross taking a load of catching games away from Paul LoDuca last year, LoDuca again faded in the stretch run. Before the all-star break, LoDuca posted .314 BA/.373 OBP/.485 Slg, however, after the breaks his numbers decreased to .255/.308/.485. To increase durability, LoDuca developed a regiment of weight training and yoga in the off-season resulting in and extra 25 pounds. This year, he will see less time behind the plate and more time at first base, platooning with Robin Ventura. Ventura hit .220 with 5 home runs in his 109 AB and, somehow, is slated as the starting first baseman. David Ross, who will catch against LH showed some impressive power numbers in limited time, hitting 11 HR in 146 AB, but minor league number show much more modest values.

On of the few moves this off season by Dan Evans was to return Tracy favorite Alex Cora to 2B. Cora will team up with shortstop Ceaser Izturis, making a capable defensive DP combination, but both are abysmal at the plate. Both hit at a .250 clip, have low walk numbers and don't hit for power. This would be acceptable in, 1984, but not in 2004. What is even more frightening is that Izturis and his .282 OBP is projected to bat second in the Los Angeles batting order.

The Dodger patience has worn thin for 3rd baseman Adrian Beltre. Beltre's OBP has decreased for the 4th consecutive year from a respectable .360 OBP in 2000 to a pathetic .290 in 2003. Also, for the second consecutive year, Beltre had started slow and waited until the Dodgers acquired a possible replacement at 3B to show his hitting prowess. In spite of this, Tracy has moved Beltre to the 3rd slot in batting order, hoping that he will see more pitches to hit when protected by Shawn Green, who will hit 4th. It would be wise to offer camp invitee Jose Hernandez, who has hit well in spring training, a roster spot to keep Beltre motivated in April.

Green is coming of a disappointing 2003 season where he kept quiet a shoulder injury which significantly decreased his home run totals from 42 in 2002 to 19 in 2003. Damage labrum cartilage was removed from his shoulder, and although the surgery was labeled a success, it is unclear whether Green will actually return to his normal 40 HR self. At a 16 millions dollar salary, the Dodgers would hope so.

Dave Roberts was granted a full-time job in 2003 but due to injury could not sustain the 2002 breakout year performance, dropping 27 points in batting average and 22 points in on-base percentage. Tracy will likely platoon Roberts again as he did in 2002, and Jason Romano is the leading candidate. Romano hit .306 in AAA affiliate Las Vegas but only managed 11 walks in 227 plate appearances.

The lone Dodger splash in the free agent market is former Marlin outfielder Juan Encarnacion. Encarnacion was bothered by a shoulder injury, but still managed 19 HR and 37 doubles. One would expect those numbers which were mostly compiled in pitcher's park Pro Player Stadium to translate similarly to another notorious pitcher's park, Dodger Stadium. Any numbers close to his 2003 performance would be a solid increase from last years LF production from Brain Jordan, Jeremy Burnitz and Ricky Henderson. Encarnacion is another Dodger who can make a impact on defense with good speed, range and a strong arm. Encarnacion will bat 5th in the order, behind Shawn Green.

The Dodgers had a pleasant surprise in the play of Jolbert Cabrera. Jolbert played 6 different positions well for the Dodgers last year, and added a .282 average with an amazing 32 doubles in only 347 AB. Olmendo Saenz will return from a ruptured Achilles tendon to be the Dodger's primary right handed pinch hitter and may see time at first base against left handed pitchers. In 2002, Saenz had a .358 on-base percentage and a .468 slugging percentage in 156 AB. The Dodger also grabbed Jason Grabowski from the Oakland A's for cash. Grabowski, 28, has put modest numbers last year in AAA Sacramento (.370 OBP, .468 SLG) and will probably make the club as a LH pinch hitter and occasional 1B replacement for Ventura.

The Dodgers are expected to improve from last in the major leagues in hitting, but the pitching staff must find a way to fill the void left by the departure of Kevin Brown and Paul Quantrill. Quantrill was signed during the great Yankee heist of 2004, and publicly rejoiced in separating himself from the surly, cancerous Brown. Sure enough, Dan Evans, doing his best Billy Beane impersonation, dealt Brown, who put it all together perhaps for the last time in 2003, and his $30 millions dollars left on his contract for New York Yankee whipping boy Jeff Weaver. Combined, Quantrill and Brown pitched 288 1/3 inning for Dodgers in 2003, with a sterling a 2.21 ERA.

In spite of Brown's success, the true ace of the staff last year was Hideo Nomo. Nomo led the team with 218 1/3 innings pitched and 16 wins while compiling an ERA of 3.03 ERA in 2003. However, Nomo turns 36 this year and is coming off season shoulder surgery this year questioning his ability to repeat is 2003 performance.

Odalis Perez was actively shopped this off-season, but is slated as the number 2 starter. Perez biggest problem preventing him from being a consistent starter is his attitude. Perez railed teammates in the press when the hitting and defense wasn't there and couldn't pitch through nagging injuries. Another year older may help Perez mature and turn in a season similar to 2002, where he pitched 222 1/3 with a 3.00 ERA

Historically, the Dodgers have a knack of acquiring the lesser brother of a baseball sibling duo. The list is substantial: Chris (brother of Tony) Gywnn, Juan (brother of George) Bell, Wilton (brother of Vladimir) Guerrero, Mike (brother of Greg) Maddux, Ramon (brother of Pedro) Martinez. The list goes as far back as Butts (brother of Honus) Wagner. We may add Jeff (Brother of Jared) Weaver to the list. Jeff was an up and coming talent with the Detroit Tigers before George Steinbrenner decided to bring him to New York. He has not been the same since. Fortunes may change for the right hander who is no longer under intense scrutiny of the Boss and the New York fans and press and now is in an outstanding pitcher's park with one of the best defenses in the league behind him. But Jeff will need quite a season to overshadow the success of his younger brother Jared, who is putting together one of the greatest collegiate pitching seasons for top 25 Long Beach State.

Kazuhisa Ishii features a low 90's fastball, a hard breaking curve and a change up, but no command of any of the three. Last year was his second season of 100 plus walks in only 147 innings. Amazingly, he posted a sub-4 ERA of 3.86. Ishii, now 30, shows little signs finding the control necessary to bring him to the higher echelon of left handers, but he still makes for an adequate 4th or 5th starter in the rotation. This spring he is working on his mechanics with pitching coach Jim Colborn. Criticism of Ishii's ability to pitch well pales in compared to his ability to come back from the line drive off the bat of Brian Hunter that fractured his skull and ended his season in 2002.

The 5th and final spot is young Edwin Jackson's to lose. Jackson, 20, made a memorable debut in the league in 2003 by beating Arizona's Randy Johnson, and kept pitching well for the rest of the season. If Jackson were to fail, the Dodgers have Wilson Alvarez who pitched exceptionally well last season with a 2.37 ERA for 95 innings. Jose Lima, a camp invitee, is trying to make the ball club, but will be hard pressed to leapfrog Jackson and Alvarez, and will likely be cut or sequestered to the bullpen as a long man and emergency starter.

Even with the departure of Major League holds leader Paul Quantrill, the Dodger bullpen is still the best in baseball. What can be said about Cy Young award winner Eric Gagne that hasn't already been said. The only concern to the Dodgers is that Gagne lost his arbitration case this off season and be making the same about of money as disappointment Adrian Belte: $5 million a year.

Guillermo Mota was arguably the most valuable set-up man in the league. Mota features a 95+ mph fastball with a slider to baffle hitter for 105 innings last year, compiling a 1.91 ERA.

Paul Shuey, Todd Martin and Darrin Driefort will round out this formable bullpen. Shuey slowed down after the all star break due to shoulder and hip problems but managed a 3.00 ERA. Martin, the lone left hander in the Dodger bullpen, was one of the best in baseball in not allowing inherited runners to score.

The Dodgers seem to have seen the light on Driefort and are pushing to keep him in the bullpen. He has always had electric stuff, with a tremendous moving fastball and a complimentary slider, but has never pitched greater than 200 innings and is 4 years removed of a solid 2000 campaign which garnered him a 5 year $55 million dollar contract. The reason Driefort was shut down last year was not because of his arm, but problem to his knee and hip, which lead to surgery on both. Considering his injury history and the fact that he is a two-pitch pitcher screams of short relief. If Dreifort remains in the bullpen, he could significantly add to this already strong group.

Without a strong team the National League West, it is conceivable to have a team take the division with an 86-88 win season. In spite of Tracy's previous success of making a team better than how they appear on paper, the Dodgers have far too many deficiencies in hitting on their present roster to win the NL West crown. With Dan Evans reluctance to trade top prospects in the system and the limitations in adding salary, Tracy is left with 4 starters which had an OBP of less than .300 and 3 more starters with an OBP less than .340. None of the starters had over 20 home runs in 2003. Many lament the lack of acquiring Vladimir Guerrero in the off season, but it would take more than on bat to make this lineup respectable. However, the Dodgers have waiting in the minor league standouts 1B James Loney and OF Frank Gutierrez, who are 2-3 years way from making an impact at the major league level. Couple that with the multitude of impressive young arms like Greg Miller and Joel Hanrahan, and the Dodger long term future looks bright. Due to the signing inactivity by the Dodgers in the past few seasons, the lone Dodger who is under contract past 2005 is Kazuhisa Ishii. The lack of long terms contracts will allow DePodesta to quickly turn this team over and build a roster to his and Frank McCourt's liking; a new Dodger team stressing OBP, not overvaluing defense and creating a better balance between hitting and pitching. Perhaps then the Dodgers will have a viable contender.