Chicago Cubs 2004 Season Preview

Kerry Wood is one of a handful of aces in the Cubs' rotation.

The Cubs find themselves in the unfamiliar position of being one of the preseason favorites in the National League for 2004. This expectation comes thanks to a deep run in the playoffs last year that saw the Cubs a scant five outs away from the NL pennant in Game 6 of the NLCS, and an offseason that saw Chicago fill in the holes of their pitching staff and add some quality depth to their lineup. But are they really the class of the NL, or even their division?

An old friend comes back to the Cubs' rotation to complement their stable of young studs. Greg Maddux replaces Shawn Estes after signing a two-year deal with a third year voidable if Maddux doesn't pitch 400 innings over the next two seasons. Nice upgrade, huh? And plenty of time for Maddux to get the 11 wins needed for him to get 300 for his career and put a bit of frosting on that cake. Maddux should slip in the #2 slot in the Cubs' rotation behind the franchise, Mark Prior. After a 6-6 rookie effort in 2002, Prior assumed leadership of the Cubs staff, finishing 18-6, including going 10-1 down the stretch after a stint on the DL after the All-Star break. Kerry Wood would probably be the ace for half the teams in the league, but he figures to be second or third in the Cubs' rotation. We'll put him third. Wood has compiled back-to-back 200 inning seasons with ERAs in the low to mid 3's, making his 1999 elbow surgery look like ancient history. Matt Clement and Carlos Zambrano round out the starters. Zambrano had a breakout season last year, finishing 13-11 and 7th in the NL with a 3.11 ERA. Clement's 4.11 ERA in 2003 was actually half a point higher than his 2002 mark, but he was particularly effective after a slow start, going 12-6 with a 3.72 ERA from the beginning of June onward. Juan Cruz would have most likely been tabbed as the fifth starter had Maddux not signed, but instead he will be the long reliever and spot starter, much as he was when he was on the parent club last year.

The Cubs also bolstered their bullpen, bringing in free agents LaTroy Hawkins and Kent Mercker to replace Dave Veres and Mark Guthrie. Hawkins is one of the premier setup men in the game, and will be the guy the Cubs turn to to make the bridge between the starters or middle relief to closer Joe Borowski. Borowski had a surprising 33 saves last season for the Cubs, relying as much on guts and guile as pure stuff to get outs in the ninth. Kyle Farnsworth has dominant stuff but has trouble locating his slider at times, as well as serving up the occasional arrow-straight fastball that catches a little too much of the plate. Nonetheless, Farnsworth was reasonably effective in both middle relief and as a setup man, but he always seems to fall a little short of meeting expectations based purely on his stuff. Dependable lefty Mike Remlinger rounds out the 'pen.

The Cubs' lineup looks to shake out something like this:

CF - Corey Patterson
2B - Mark Grudzielanek
RF - Sammy Sosa
LF - Moises Alou
1B - Derek Lee
3B - Aramis Ramirez
SS - Alex Gonzalez
C - Michael Barrett

A healthy and productive Corey Patterson is a key to the Cubs' playoff hopes.

Patterson comes off a torn ACL but claims he's 100% heading into the season. He's the closest thing they have to a true leadoff hitter, but he's also the only lefty regular in the lineup, and has the punch to hit lower in the order. You could hit Grudzielanek leadoff, but then who hits in the 2 slot? Derek Lee replaces the trio of Hee Seop Choi, Eric Karros, and Randall Simon, and is a clear upgrade both with the bat and the glove. With the cozy power alleys of Wrigley he could make a push for 35 homers. Sammy Sosa hit 40 in spite of missing 24 games due to injury and suspension for brain lapse. He should be fine. Aramis Ramirez had a big stretch run and a postseason in which he amassed quality at-bats (remember that laser he hit a foot foul off Josh Beckett in Game 4 before striking out on pitch #10?). He's a key player in the Cubs' lineup; if he can slug somewhere around .500 for a full season he will rack up the RBIs with Sosa, Alou, and Lee hitting in front of him, much like Corey Patterson did in the 6-hole last May (though it was Choi hitting in the 5-hole in front of him then).

The bench is stocked with quality veteran help. Todd Walker signed as a free agent from Boston and will be ready to fill in or platoon with Grudzielanek if he falters. Todd Hollandsworth will see time at first and the occasional corner outfield start in addition to being the Cubs primary pinch-hitter. Tom Goodwin can fill in at center, and Ramon Martinez can play three infield positions. Paul Bako is the backup catcher, and is probably the weakest link on the team at the moment.

So, what's not to like? One thing is the heavy workload shouldered by Prior and Zambrano in particular. Including the playoffs, both these guys worked about 230 innings last year, by far the most either had thrown in a season. Might be something to watch out for. Wood, Zambrano, and Clement all also have a tendency to lose the strike zone from time to time. I think there's still a question whether Borowski is the solution at closer, but as long as he gets the outs in the ninth, who cares if his fastball is a few mph slower than most other closers?

For the lineup, it is decidedly tilted to the right side of the plate unless Todd Walker displaces Grudzielanek in the lineup. Most of the guys the Cubs have are known quantities, but the keys are the youngsters in the lineup, Patterson and Ramirez. They each put together a pretty good two to three month stretch, Patterson before his injury and Ramirez after his trade from Pittsburgh. Can they post that sort of production for a full season? The difference between yes and no may very well turn out to be the difference between the Cubs defending their NL Central crown and scrapping it out for the NL Wild Card berth.

Too pessimistic a prognosis? Consider that the Cubs' and Astros' rotations are so close to each other that whether one is better than the other depends on how many guys you are considering. Prior is probably the single best, but do the Cubs have the one-two punch to match Oswalt and Pettitte, for instance? Prior Maddux and Wood might be better than any three Astros' starters, but the Astros' top four probably edges the Cubs' top four. As a five man set, give the edge back to the Cubs, but the Astros' fill-in (Jeriome Robertson) is better than the Cubs' (Juan Cruz). That's how close they are.

A similar analysis could be done for both the bullpens and lineups. But if Ramirez can chip in with a .500 SLG for a full season from the 6-hole and Patterson can develop just a touch more patience at the plate, that might be the edge the Cubs need to lift them to their second straight division title. And given the improvement of both the Astros and the Cubs in the offseason while the other teams in the NL Central stood still for the most part, the Wild Card could very well come from the Central this year.