Boston Red Sox 2004 Season Preview

By Matt Wall

Nomar - Boston's Great Shortstop

In the eternal duality of the universe, suspended between being and non-being like so many ephemeral quantum particles, there are a few constants that reappear in our dim attempts at describing the order of the cosmos. Good versus Evil. Yin versus Yang. Woman versus Man. Cat vs. Mouse. Red Sox versus Yankees. How is it that in understanding the future 2004 prospects of a fantastic ball club that did exceedingly well in 2003, instead of looking within we are instead constantly looking at another? Because this is the Red Sox, and them's the Yanks.

But I'm going to buck the trend here and not talk about the ballyhooed acquisitions of Curt Schilling, Keith Foulke, and new manager Terry "Friend of Curt" Francona; I'm not going to discuss the A-Rod deal (directly); we're going to discuss the nuts and bolts of a winning ballclub that has improved itself, which is the 2004 Red Sox. What the Red Sox make of that position in the great mandela of the baseball universe is as unknowable as the place and time of a person's death. That it will be seriously competitive is not in doubt.

OK, we'll talk about the Yankees just a little bit, but no more than that, I promise. One of the features of the Yankees that's been overlooked in all this chicken-with-head-cut-off squawking about the Evil Empire's ability to buy stars willy-nilly is the role that the utility player, the role player, the spot reliever, and the general supporting cast have played in the club's success. It's one thing to go buy a Javier Vazquez or a Curt Schilling on the open market, it's quite another to have Enrique Wilson or John Flaherty at hand just when you need him. And it is in this area that I believe the Theo Epstein era in Boston has been successful and will be especially so in 2004.

Last year it was David Ortiz, Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar, Todd Walker, and yes, despite their problems, most of the bullpen by committee - Mike Timlin, Alan Embree, Scott Williamson, and even poor Byung-Hung Kim (when he was the swing man, not the closer) - that made the Red Sox a hardcore competitive team. The near-record offensive year wasn't because Nomar and Manny were hitting, it was because they had some pretty decent non-stars around them in the order. Insofar as the no-ace-closer experiment failed (Bill James has his limitations, especially when under the thumb of Grady Little's management-by-rustic-folkbelief tenure), the Red Sox still had one of the best sets of arms available for situational relief pitching in the modern era.

The obvious failures of the post-season came down to some failures to match the Yankees' depth more than their stars: poor infield and outfield defense, bad luck, and worse management.

All of Epstein's Heroes are back this year save Walker, whose defensive liabilities finally got to be too much even for the Sox. Replacing Walker is Pokey Reese, an infielder whose finesse, range, and great capabilities as a gloveman are matched only by his complete bafflement at the outlines of the strikezone. As such he'll be the Anti-Todd, a useful asset in the field and an occasional weapon on the basepaths. Since the Red Sox had an excess of runs scored and a similar surplus of unearned runs scored against last year, such a player is the kind of addition that may make bitter Octobers into a sweet November.

The clubhouse chemistry and karma is a serious question for 2004, with the superstars Manny Ramirez, Nomar Garciaparra, and Pedro Martinez seriously ticked off at management - with some cause - and the latter two gents in the last years of their contracts. How Terry Francona deals with the inherent problems of this situation will be the true test of his management skills, now that the thorny Grady-era problem of whom to close with has been taken off his to-do list by the acquisition of Foulke.

Yet I see another off-season Epstein acquisition as a positive sign in this era: inviting Ellis Burks to spring training. Ellis once was touted as a future-hall-of-famer, the kind of guy who could do it all, but only after he left Boston did he finally have true star seasons. He left misunderstood by the press and to an extent by the fans, but still well-loved. Ellis shows every sign of being a great bat off the bench, and in a part-time DH role will provide the kind of oomph that Tony Clark - now mysteriously a Yankee, by the way - could not.

Mark Bellhorn joins the club as the utilityman, replacing Damian Jackson (who has died and gone to Coors). Jackson was useful as a guy with some offensive skills - probably more than Bellhorn - but as a defensive replacement in the OF and IF, he provided flexibility but not superior skill.

Keeping Doug Mirabelli as the No. 2 guy behind the plate was also an extremely smart move. He's got a useful bat, he's a solid defender, and managed to be flexible (and was nearly Tim Wakefield's personal catcher for a stretch, which probably put ten points on Jason Varitek's batting average).

I also like Gabe Kapler as a defensive outfielder in the Darren Bragg mold, although his skills and the Red Sox' depth will be put to the test now that Trot Nixon's injury will apparently keep him out until May or later.

So when we look up at the bench, and see these kind of quality additions, and then look at a lineup that's essentially the same, a rotation that now has Curt Schilling at the top and a great veteran bullpen that now has Keith Foulke at the back - it's got that whiff of a winning ballclub. Chemistry, injuries, and repeat performances from the career-year guys (David Ortiz, Bill Mueller) notwithstanding, optimism is warranted.

The rotation will be set as Martinez, Schilling, Derek Lowe, Tim Wakefield, and Bronson Arroyo as the swing man until Kim heals. The bullpen will have all-star credentials aplenty: Mike Timlin, Alan Embree, Scott Williamson, and Ramiro Mendoza and as yet-unnamed extra lefty getting the ball to Foulke. As I pointed out during last year's closer-by-committee experiment, unlike most other committees, last year's club had over 500 saves historically among the candidates. This year's is still pretty close (minus Todd Jones), but the difference is they'll have a full year to work together, defined roles, and a somewhat less-lunkheaded manager in Terry Francona to work the problem.

Damon will lead off again, followed by Bill Mueller, Nomar, Manny, Ortiz, Millar, Varitek, Kapler/Nixon, and Pokey Reese. Damon's OBP numbers could use some help north to be truly effective, but with Pokey in the 9 slot it gives the Sox the rare feature of having back to back speedsters. By some lineup theories -"the two leadoff men" school of thought, at least - this will give the Red Sox some new tactical options in close games.

This is a veteran line-up, of course, and veteran line-ups mean injuries. It means the manager will have to manage the lineup for the strategic day off. It means the bench will have to contribute. And inevitably it means the Sox will have to keep adding a few players by trade for injury and supplementation. But Theo's been stocking up AAA with some Four-A players that might be on Billy Beane's scouting report, and that's the kind of move we want our wunderkind to make now for the chess game down the stretch.

Since there's no help to be had on the farm - the bad old days of Lou Gorman and Dan Duquette's win-at-any-cost short sightedness have taken the farm down to No. 23 in Baseball America's ratings, with utterly no impact players on the short- or mid-term horizon - Epstein's bag of tricks in-season is going to be limited to two things. One is his native wile, which while not entirely tested, will probably focus on more of the same kind of neglected but useful supporting player he's been so good at acquiring to date. The second is the purse strings. The Yankees (dang, I said I wouldn't mention them again, but there we go) having already approached $200 million in payroll commitments (if we count in their very expensive manager, Joe Torre) may not in fact have that checkbook as wide open as the Red Sox. Where this will come in handy is in three- and two-month rentals of star players being unloaded by uncompetitive teams. I expect at least one major name to be added to the Red Sox by the trade deadline, exact nature and name to be determined by context.

The frustrations of Red Sox fans may have been stretched to a new fever pitch by the A-Rod debacle, and their furious venom will be felt on A-Rod's neck, no doubt, at least in aural form. To my mind, that puts all the pressure on the Yankees this year, and with as strong a team as has been put together in the playoff era, the Red Sox may yet finally strike and kill the snakes for once. Matter will become anti-matter, day becomes night, the universe as we know it will come to an end, and the Red Sox will win the World's Championship.