Texas Rangers 2003 Season Preview

by David Marasco

A-Rod - Great player, great guy

Since I bought a digital camera my perspective on baseball has changed. Before then I was a real numbers-cruncher. I'd keep track of the result of every pitch on my scorecard. I knew how many pitches the pitcher had thrown, and would worry if the manager was properly handing his staff. Now I show up a few hours before the game, but instead of approaching the event as an intellectual exercise, I try to capture the best photo I can. MLB makes things tough, claiming that in-game photos are violations of their copyright, but I get all kinds of pictures during batting practice. And I get all kinds of insights during BP. That's when the players let their guards down, and let things all hang loose. Last year I caught an inter-league game between the Cubs and the Rangers. Prior to the game most of the Rangers were blowing off people looking for autographs, with the notable exception of A-Rod. He spent the better part of twenty minutes connecting with the fans, making small talk, signing anything and everything pushed in his face. He's what the callers to sports shows expect all players to be. On the field his excellence is beyond any doubt. But when the curtain rose and the lineups were announced, his name drew a huge chorus of boos. Granted, I don't think that anybody who watched his pre-game activities booed him, but the vast majority of fans arrived ten or fifteen minutes before the game, and judged him on one thing and one thing only - his contract.

Yes, he made $22M last year. On the other hand, if Barry hadn't been wearing the red cape and blue tights for the past two years we would be talking about A-Rod's bat. The man had 57 homers from the shortstop position last season. People will boo Bonds, but say it's due to his perceived personality rather than his $15M salary. Yet A-Rod is supposedly ruining both baseball and the Rangers. The claim is that A-Rod's salary cripples the Rangers, not allowing them the room to sign other strong players. But let's contrast Bonds' National League Champion Giants to A-Rod's 90-loss Rangers. Here are the players who made more than $5M on each squad:

Barry Bonds	$ 15,000,000
Robb Nen	$ 8,300,000
Jeff Kent	$ 6,000,000
J.T. Snow	$ 5,900,000
Rich Aurilia	$ 5,250,000
Alex Rodriguez	$ 22,000,000
Juan Gonzalez	$ 11,000,000
Ivan Rodriguez	$ 9,600,000
Rafael Palmeiro	$ 8,712,986
Carl Everett	$ 8,666,666
Kenny Rogers	$ 7,500,000
Chan Ho Park	$ 6,884,803
Rusty Greer	$ 6,800,000

The first thing to note here is that A-Rod's contract didn't keep the Rangers from having seven other players on the roster making over $5M. Robb Nen, the second-highest paid Giant, would be the sixth-highest paid Ranger. But more important than just salary is the return on investment. Both Bonds and A-Rod are expensive propositions, but heck, both deliver with their bats. Let's look at how the Giants' big-ticket players paid off. Bonds, obviously, earned his money. Robb Nen was fifth in the league with 43 saves, and is considered to be a top closer. Jeff Kent finished sixth in the MVP voting and provided Hall-of-Fame pop from the second base position. J.T. Snow posted a 246/344/360 line, pretty miserable for a $6M first baseman. Rounding things out, Rich Aurilia also disappointed, regressing to the mean following his outstanding 2001. The Giants big investments turned out two superstars, a front-line closer, and two guys the GM has to wonder about. Granted you want every investment to pay off, but the Giants seem to have done pretty well.

Now let's look at the Rangers. Again, A-Rod lives up to his money. Juan Gonzalez played only 70 games, and posted a park-adjusted OPS below league average. Pudge played in only 100 games behind the plate, but was able to give the Rangers the tenth-highest slugging percentage in the league, combined with league-average OBP. Rafael Palmeiro turned in another great year late in the career. How good? Try a league-sixth .571 slugging percentage and league-ninth .391 OBP. On the other hand you have Carl Everett, who had only 374 AB and couldn't get to league average OPS+ in that limited time. Kenny Rogers went 13-8, posting a 3.84 ERA in 211 IP. Given the league average ERA of 4.91, Rogers' ERA doesn't look too bad. Not what you would want from the highest-paid pitcher on your staff, but not bad. Compare those numbers to Chan Ho Parks' 5.75 ERA over only 145 IP, for a 9-8 record. Rusty Greer rounds this crowd out just shy of 200AB, yet another player not getting his head above league-average. So in the Rangers group of eight, we have one superstar, two frontline position players (although I-Rod's games played was not up to par), a solid pitcher, a less-than-solid pitcher and three wasted roster slots. Worried about A-Rod's $22M? Add up Gonzalez, Everett and Greer and you get $26.5M. Compare these two lines:

Name	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
A-Rod	624	125	187	57	142	.300	.392	.623
JG/CE/RG	850	109	237	46	114	.279	.333	.428

Of course, A-Rod is producing these numbers from shortstop, while these other people are playing in traditional batting slots: corner outfield, first and DH. Granted that every team has contracts that they regret, but the Rangers have lots of sunk costs in terms of bad contracts.

Looking at last year's salaries, the Rangers no longer have Kenny Rogers. Sadly, that was one of the better big-money investments. Same with Pudge, his salary is no longer on the roster, but he wasn't one of the black holes. Einar Diaz won't earn the money, but won't fill his shoes. Juan Gonzalez will hopefully bounce back from his thumb injury, but who knows what runs through Everett's head? Chan Ho Park is pencilled in at the top of the rotation, but you have to wonder about a team that makes that statement. A cheap investment, Mark Teixeira, might make big waves in the Rangers' future. But of course, for years to come, the big name will be Alex Rodriguez.