New York Mets 2003 Season Preview

Howe will he do?

Lou Costello: "Who's on third?"
Bud Abbott: "Who's on first."
Costello: "What's the name of the third baseman?"
Abbott: "What's the second baseman's name."
Costello: "I'm asking YOU. Tell me the name of the third baseman!"
Steve Phillips: "Idunno."

It could have been Edgardo Alfonzo, as Mets fans will be glad to tell you. Fonzie's a clutch hitter, a good fielder and a soft-spoken decent man. More importantly, he was home grown and loyal. He wanted to stay a Met. It's not totally clear why he's not. The Mets thought they could get a Japanese third baseman cheaper, maybe they were worried about Alfonzo's recurring back problem. What they said was that he was asking more than his market value. All fall and winter they kept talking about players coming back down to the market value. Draw your own collusions.

Last year was terrible. With winter additions and a reasonably good start, there was so much hope after about twenty games. It was their worst season in many years, just two years after they went to the World Series. It is no wonder that Mets fans are cautious going into the new season, even with the additions of Tom Glavine, Mike Stanton and Cliff Floyd. But soon it will be spring, and everyone is hopeful in the spring; so, let's look at the reasons for hope.

We can begin with the general category of "It can't happen twice in a row." Last winter, the Mets imported offense in Robbie Alomar, Jeromy Burnitz, Roger Cedeno and Mo Vaughn and every one of them had a negative career year. Will they have their two worst years in a row? Besides, Mo was coming back after a one year layoff and his stats were decent, if not spectacular, in the second half. Some of his home runs were spectacular. When his bat hits the ball just right, your imagination can take it to the scoreboard. (By the way, Mo was the slowest base runner I have ever seen in over fifty years of watching baseball - more properly a base jogger.) He did take off about twenty pounds over the winter. Alomar's pride had to be hurt with his season last year, and he has additional incentive in the walk year of his contract. The reports are that Cedeno has trimmed down and is in much better shape. Arguably, no Met regular had an above average year last year. Just a return to the mean should help.

Then there is the new manager, Art Howe. In 1984, Bill James wrote in his annual Baseball Abstract about the phenomenon of teams going on a run when a more laid back manager takes over for one known to be intense. The Orioles had just won the World Series the year after Earl Weaver retired. George Steinbrenner had tried to use the principal for a regular rotation between Billy Martin, a good candidate for the most intense manager of the century, and the laid back Bob Lemon. In recent years, Buck Showalter has been the poster boy for this theory, shaping two championship caliber teams with his compulsive style that went over the top with a more "let'em play" manager (which in his case is anyone). No one knows why the Mets performed so terribly last year, but it's as good a theory as any that this group was undone by the visibly intense leadership of Bobby Valentine. It's not that he was a control freak, like Showalter, but you just had to listen to the tension in his voice from day to day to sense the anger and tightness. The World Series team had tension breakers like Robin Ventura and Lenny Harris.

Burnitz is a particular case in point. He was known to be intense and self critical even when he was a minor leaguer in the Mets' system, and he had his worst seasons playing for Dallas Green and Bobby Valentine. With the optimism of spring, we can speculate that he'll relax and produce with Art Howe, who looks like the kind who would make jokes in a foxhole.

On the other hand, it could be Shea. It has always been a decidedly pitcher's park (Bill James used to blame it on the track lighting), and now, with so many new ballparks that favor hitters, the difference is more pronounced. Very few players make the transition from another ballpark to Shea without their offense suffering. (Keep that in mind when considering a trade for Hillenbrand.) Possible exceptions that come to mind are Rusty Staub and Keith Hernandez, and the exception that proves the rule is Piazza, who came from the other well known pitcher's park, Dodgers Stadium. His career is truly outstanding when we consider that he never had a home park that even approached being in his favor.

There is another cause for optimism for Mets fans that doesn't directly bear on this season. For the first time in years, we have genuine prospects. The shortstop, Jose Reyes is a 19 year old with exceptional pop in his bat and speed. The reports are that he has at least above average range and arm. Scott Kazmir is a young pitcher, far from the majors, who nevertheless throws in the high 90's with an easy motion and plenty of movement on the ball. Aaron Heilman, Mike Bascik and Jason Middlebrook (in order of ascending age and ML experience) will be competing with David Cone for the fifth starter spot. They also have a catcher in the system, Justin Huber, who is thought to be Piazza's eventual replacement. He certainly fits the profile: he can hit with power and his main weakness as a catcher is that he can't throw out base runners. The point is that there is new life in the system, even if the 40 man roster is still third oldest in the majors.

In terms of that major league team, the starting rotation is old, but solid, with Glavine, Al Leiter, Pedro Astacio, Steve Trachsel (the one Met who did have a good year last year) and either one of the kids or Cone. (Mets fans will remember that Coney has a good arm and was a decent batter from the left side, but can he play third base?)

The relief pitching looks even more solid, with ex-Yankees Mike Stanton and David Weathers to set up Armando Benitez. Grant Roberts (home grown) had a good first year as a reliever. Scott Strickland could snap back. The Mets also have lefties Graeme Lloyd and Jaime Cerda in camp, and maybe John Franco will be there in mid-season. Nearly all Mets fans cringe when Benitez comes in, particularly in an important game; but, my impression is that that's true of every team and every closer. Even Mariano Rivera was proven mortal in a clutch situation. Short of getting him, Troy Percival or Trevor Hoffman, you're not going to get that kind of security in a closer. When John Franco was the closer, everyone was clammering for Benitez. (I have a cousin who, if he'd had a gun, would have shot his TV in an attempt to get Franco.)

The lineup looks solid again (meaning it looked solid last spring), with Floyd replacing Fonzie and providing a little more power. It's a lineup that might be vulnerable to lefty relievers in the late innings. Five of the likely starters are either lefties or switch hitters who favor the left side. (I'm projecting Cedeno, Alomar, Floyd, Piazza, Vaughn, Burnitz, Wigginton, Sanchez.) Mo and Floyd both have a history of hitting lefthanders. Still, it was a smart move to pick up an old fan favorite, Shyoshi Shinjo, who is known to hit lefties.

It's also a good idea in terms of having a center fielder who can catch the ball. Burnitz has a good glove and arm, and to his credit never let his bad season affect his effort or performance in right field; but, he he's not fast and won't cover more than an average amount of ground. Floyd has never been known as a good outfielder. Cedeno is the most perplexing. Last year it seemed as if he dropped the few line drives he got to. I saw him drop a liner that let in what became the winning run in the last game of the Braves series in April. As the season wove on, he proved it wasn't a fluke. Now, they want to make him the centerfielder. (Go figure.) Timo Perez is also a good outfielder, although probably not as good as Shinjo.

The infield might have some holes as well. Alomar and Rey Sanchez should be at least reliable in the middle (for very young fans who watched last year, this is "Happy Rey" at short); but, Wigginton made five errors in a short stint last September and has written E5 on his glove as a reminder to focus and Mo, although surprisingly athletic at first, can cover just so much ground driving a truck (or maybe an SUV this year). Mo, by the way, is particularly theatrical with foul pops, as often as not landing on his backside with the ball in his glove. Wigginton did hit well both last September and in the Dominican League this fall. He made steady, unspectacular progress through the Mets system, always one of the better players on his team. Most of his experience, by the way, was at second base. Even with the fielding liabilities, he probably is as good or better than most of the alternatives the Mets looked at after Alfonzo and Nokamura were gone. If he does start on opening day, it will be refreshing to see a home grown rookie in the lineup.

At this point, the bench is not solid, but will probably evolve as a few starting positions are worked out. Shinjo can hit lefties and was good in the clutch two years ago with the Mets and Timo is a very good hitter against righties. They still have McEwing, and Jay Bell is trying to win the starting job at third. If Reyes gets to the majors some time this season, Sanchez will add to the bench.

All in all, they look like a solid team that could be better. They're in a division with some strong contenders. The Braves are always the favorite. Even though they lost Glavine, they brought in Hampton and Byrd (both ex-Mets). The Phillies have struck to make themselves contenders, if their still young pitching and questionable bullpen hold up. Florida has those young arms and the Expos with Vlad the Impaler, and some good young pitchers, were surprisingly strong last year.

Mets fans do have one last reason for optimism. There was a team last year that had badly underperformed the year before, finishing with almost the same record the Mets had last year. They won the World Series. Of course, if we want to use that source of hope we have to give up the mantra, "It can't happen twice in a row."

But the best news is that in just a few days of this writing, we will hear the voice of spring: "Well, hiya folks! This is Bob Murphy at Thomas J. White Stadium in Port St. Lucie, Florida where the New York Mets will play... "