Minnesota Twins 2003 Season Preview

by Tom Renbarger

Twins All-Star Torii Hunter

The Twins runaway 2002 AL Central crown and run to the ALCS stood in sharp relief to their being targeted for contraction by commissioner Bud Selig. The team had a rookie manager as Ron Gardenhire replaced Tom Kelly, who skippered the Twins to two World Series titles in 1987 and '91, and started the season with a number of untested players or players assuming different roles going into the season. But there always seemed to be someone to step up, whether to fill in for an injured starter, getting a key hit or stepping up with important innings from the bullpen as the Twins went 94-67. This success coupled with a new labor deal and their ability to get young stars Jacque Jones (3 years, $18 M) and Torii Hunter (4 years, $32 M) re-signed to reasonably priced multiyear deals has removed the specter of contraction from the near-term for the Twins.

The Twins project to have a starting rotation of Brad Radke, Rick Reed, Eric Milton, Joe Mays, and Kyle Lohse. A groin injury suffered in May caused Brad Radke to miss all of June and July, preventing him from reaching 200 innings pitched for the first time since his rookie season in 1995. Look for him to return to workhorse form in the 2003 season and be the Opening Day starter. Rick Reed was the most consistent starter for the Twins in '02, going 15-7 with a 3.87 ERA. Reed will turn 38 this August and there are some concerns about his breaking down, but Reed has barely thrown 1400 innings (about 250 less than Radke) in his career and has started at least 30 games five of the last six seasons. Eric Milton suffered torn cartilage in his knee after the All Star break, and this injury is still bothering him going into Spring Training. He was enjoying a solid follow up to his 15-7, 4.23 ERA 2001 season before having knee surgery in August, and there is some concern that the lingering effects of the injury will limit Milton's effectiveness. Another question mark is Joe Mays. Mays battled the effects of bone chips in his right elbow, which severely affected his performance after a 17-win 2001 season. Mays had offseason surgery but it remains to be seen if his repaired elbow can hold up to the rigors of the major league season. Kyle Lohse is better than most number 5 starters, but the question with him is whether his strong finish to 2002 portends further improvement for Lohse. In August and September Lohse had a 1.14 ratio, compared to a 1.45 ratio in his first season and a half -- a statistical aberration or Lohse taking the Next Step? His stuff indicates some regression, but he should still be a solid #5. Johan Santana started 14 games last season filling in for Radke and will be called upon to fill any gaps caused by injury or faltering performance. Santana's stuff is good enough that he would break into most rotations, and could develop into a legitimate staff ace if given a chance to start for a full season. In any event, Santana looks to be the replacement for Rick Reed when he finally moves on.

The possibility of regression to the mean is a prominent theme for the Twins bullpen in 2003. Eddie Guardado had a stellar '02 campaign with 45 saves and the Twins picked up his option for 2003 for $2.75 M. A long term deal is under negotiation. He should be still be able to do the job, but will he be as good as last year, and will contract negotiations prove a distraction? The Twins also picked up Latroy Hawkins 2003 option for $3.0 M. Hawkins flourished in a setup role after suffering from a collapse as closer in the second half of 2001, going 6-0 with a 2.13 ERA in 65 appearances. Guardado's assumption of the closer's role may have taken the pressure of Hawkins, setting up his big season last year. The question is whether Latroy Hawkins the indifferent starter/failed closer or Latroy Hawkins the excellent setup man will appear in 2003. So long as Guardado is an effective closer, the guess here is that Hawkins will perform at a high level, though maybe not quite as high as in 2002. Tony Fiore and J. C. Romero both had big years in 2002, but may come back down to earth. Fiore is the left-handed setup man for the Twins, but performed only at the level of journeyman before 2002. Romero moved to the bullpen in 2002 after three indifferent years as a starter. Like Hawkins, they will be solid if not as spectacular as in 2002. Santana is an intriguing player. If he doesn't start, his stuff is good enough that he could develop into a Frankie Rodriguez-type setup man, or even assume the closer's role if Guardado falters. The Twins signed Mike Fetters to replace the departed Mike Jackson. Fetters was once an effective middle reliever for Milwaukee in the mid-90s, but has fallen off a little since then.

The outstanding position battles for the Twins are RF and DH. The Twins released 2002 DH David Ortiz and rookie Michael Cuddyer will challenge Bobby Kielty and Dustan Mohr for the RF spot. The switch-hitting Kielty led the Twins with a .405 OBP, and his presence in the lineup gives the Twins some much-needed plate discipline. Mohr took over for Ortiz at DH as well as spot-starting in RF last season. Both Kielty and Mohr had 12 HR in 112 and 120 games, respectively. Cuddyer is thought to have a little more pop than either Kielty and Mohr, and looks to be the early favorite to win the RF job. Kielty will most likely make it as DH in this case to keep his batting eye somewhere in the lineup.

Two players coming off of disappointing 2002 seasons in the wake of outstanding 2001 campaigns are 1B Doug Mientkiewicz and 3B Corey Koskie. Mientkiewicz has an outstanding glove and is a selective hitter, but his power numbers dropped substantially in 2002 (SLG .392 vs. .464 in 2001). He will be challenged in 2004 by prospect Justin Morneau. Koskie was slowed by an early-season hamstring injury that he never fully recovered from. This showed up most in his stealing percentage: he was 10/21 in 2002 after going 27/33 in 2001. He also went from 26 to 15 HR, 103 to 69 RBI, and .488 to .447 SLG. Look for a healthy Koskie to rebound this season.

2B Jose Rivas and SS Cristian Guzman are a pair of slick-fielding, physically gifted players who need to translate their talent into better results on the field. Injuries did limit the 23 year old Rivas to 93 games last season, but he needs to improve upon his career .315 OBP in order to take full advantage of his speed. The soon-to-be 25 year old Guzman actually seems to be getting less and less disciplined each year, going from 46 to 21 (in 118 games) to 17 walks from 2000 through 2002. Guzman also backslid in many other major offensive categories despite playing 30 more games in 2002 compared to 2001 and compiled a Shawon Dunstonesque .292 OBP. The development of some semblance of plate discipline for these two will be a key issue for the 2003 Twins lineup.

Three of the brightest spots in the 2002 Twins lineup were C A. J. Pierzynski, LF Jacque Jones, and, of course, CF Torii Hunter. Pierzynski was an All-Star in 2002, and hit .300 in 130 games while handling the often makeshift rotation well. Jones had his best season in 2002, topping 20 HR and .500 SLG for the first time in his career while hitting .300. Jones turns 28 in April and is just entering his prime, so look for him to challenge the 30 HR mark this season. The biggest criticisms of Jones's game are his base stealing (28 SB vs. 25 CS career) and his patience at the plate (career high 39 BB in 2001). Hunter followed up a solid 2001 season with an excellent 2002 season. Hunter led the Twins in HR (29), RBI (94) and SLG (.524) while continuing to supply reels of highlights with his play in center. He also set career highs in H (162), 2B (37), steals (23 SB vs. 8 CS), and walks (a modest 35 BB). Like Jones, Hunter turns 28 this season, so we can expect better things from him in the years to come.

Bottom line is that the Twins starting rotation should bounce back, as for the most part the injuries suffered weren't pitching arm injuries. Should Milton or Mays be not quite fully recovered, Santana should be able to step in. The pen probably won't be quite as good as they were last year, but they won't need to be if the rotation holds up, and if the rotation does hold up, the presence of Santana should help offset other members of the pen coming a bit back down to earth. The major issue for the Twins lineup is pitch selection. Kielty, Mientkiewicz, and Koskie are all patient hitters, can others like Jones, Guzman, and Hunter learn from this? In any event, it's hard not to like the Twins for 90 wins, and an improvement on their 94-win season is within reach.