Milwaukee Brewers 2003 Season Preview

by David Marasco

Let's crank up the Way-Back machine and tune it to the magical year of 1982. What were some of the big events from that year? AT&T agreed to its own dismemberment. "Late Night with David Letterman" debuted. John Belushi overdosed on drugs. Britain and Argentina went to war over the Falklands. Baseball said goodbye to Satchel Paige. ET was a big hit with movie-goers. The Center for Disease Control named a new disease - AIDS. Poland outlawed Solidarity. Ronald Reagan announced a "War on Drugs." The Vietnam Memorial was dedicated in Washington DC. The Dow Jones peaked at 1,070. And oh yes, the Milwaukee Brewers lost the World Series.

It's been two decades since the Brew Crew played the Cardinals for the title, and they haven't made the playoffs since. In that span only two other teams have also failed to make the playoffs: expansion Tampa Bay, and Montreal, who would have gone had Bud and cronies not cancelled the 1994 post-season. This isn't really fair to the Brewers, it's a multiple-endpoint comparison, designed to make them look bad. By the definition of the comparison they are one of the teams that has fared poorly. Start the counting two years earlier and they do quite well. Still, it does say something to note that so many teams have been successful since the last time the Brewers were good. Some teams, such as the San Francisco Giants, have run through several peaks and valleys in that time span.

Some Brewer partisans will object, saying that the past two decades have been very hard on the so-called "small market" franchises. Let's look at the environment since the Brewers last won the World Series, tracking playoff appearances against populations: graph.

According to this plot there is a slight correlation between population size and playoff appearances (r=0.28, about an 8% effect). Now let's remove two owners, George Steinbrenner and Bud Selig. What does the graph look like now?

Now the correlation coefficient has dropped to 0.09, meaning that there is less than a 1% effect. Yes, that's the worst way of lying with statistics, removing data points until the remaining sample tells the story you want, but it's interesting that once the Yankees and Brewers are gone the very small competitive balance problem disappears almost completely. Bud was looking for two teams to contract, maybe we've found them.

Ok, for all of those years Brewers management complained that they couldn't compete without a new stadium, and when the taxpayers of Wisconsin went out and built them a sweet ballpark, how did they respond? Well they built a team that went 68-94 in the stadium's first year. Well, they drew 2.8 million fans, and with those new stadium ticket prices, they had a boatload of cash. With that money they put together a squad that went 56-106, the worst in Brewer history. The problem is that a good chunk of the cash went into the owner's pockets, by MLB's own numbers, the Brewers were one of the most profitable teams in baseball. All that money doesn't make any difference if you don't invest it in the team.

On the other hand, given the product on the field, perhaps it was best that the money went into the owners' pockets, as they have not proven that they can invest wisely. Look at one of their big recent signing, Jeffrey Hammonds. He looked to be an up-and-coming player, but he was on the wrong side of 27, and when the Brewers signed him his numbers had taken a Coors bounce. Granted that he was injured in 2001, but in 2002 he limped to a 257/332/397 year, and spent a good deal of time as a corner outfielder. You don't get busts much worse than that. Speaking of injured outfielders, Geoff Jenkin's career has taken a nasty downturn. Two years ago he could be properly labeled as an up-and-coming young left fielder. But a few injuries, including a bad one to his ankle, has made his future a question mark. If he can find his way back to health, it will be a good sign for Brewers fans. Rounding out the outfield is Alex Sanchez, your prototypical speedy centerfielder. He has some great wheels, but hasn't figured out when to put his foot on the gas. 37 steals look fine, but 14 caught-stealings subtract from that. The potential is there, he just needs to learn how to read pitchers better.

No superstars in the outfield, how about the infield? At catcher the best they can put behind the plate is Robert Machado, who is no Mike Piazza. Javier Valentin will also get time at catcher. At first they have Richie Sexson, who at 6'8'' is "Big Sexy." He puts up numbers that look nice in isolation, but aren't stunning when compared to other players at his position. That being said, with Jenkins an enigma, the Brewers look to Sexson as their big bat. The Brewers will continue to trot out the rotting corpse of Eric Young at second, mainly because Ronnie Belliard never panned out. The Brewers did have a real star at short with Jose Hernandez, but there were a lot of bad feeling about his nearing the strikeout record, so he was allowed to walk to Coors. The Brewers have "replaced" Hernandez with Royce Clayton. Looking at Hernandez's 288/356/478 line compared to Clayton's 251/295/365, this is a major downgrade. A drop of 174 points in OPS will be noticed, even given some adjustment for parks. Over at third it looks like Wes Helms will get a shot. Another wildcard is ex-UT fee-nom turned Cubs bust Brooks Kieschnick. Yes, he played third, but this time around he's an outfielder and a relief pitcher. If his arm pans out, you have to point fingers at the Cubs for taking a good college pitcher and wasting his potential.

Kieschnick in the bullpen is an interesting story, but the relief corps is the one part of the team that doesn't resemble a freak show. Sadly, they don't get called in to protect too many leads. Look for Mike DeJean to be the closer in a strong pen. This brings us to the rotation. Ben Sheets is still a kid, but looks to be ace talent. Glendon Rusch is the next step down, but still a frontline starter. The rest of the rotation is what made Dave Stewart bow out as pitching coach. Todd Ritchie joined Royce Clayton on the Greyhound from Comsikey to Miller Park, and it's hard to believe he is as bad appeared to be in a White Sox uniform last year. Wayne Franklin is a bit of a puzzle, but pitched well to close 2002. Reuben Quevedo seems to be making backwards moves, but is still young enough to turn things around. Finally, fireballer Nick Neugebauer has hurt his shoulder and is out for the season. The Brewers are bringing back Jamey Wright for one last chance. While the top of the rotation is strong but not world-beating, the lower half of the staff should give Wright hope for a spot on the roster.

After last year's disaster there was a full house cleaning. The GM and manager were shown the door, and Wendy Selig-Prieb took a new title. Now there are new faces in management. Will it make a difference? The fans are voting with their feet, a 20% drop in season ticket sales has been reported. Sadly, there's probably more night before the dawn.