Los Angeles Dodgers 2003 Season Preview

by Robert Mrse

Hideo Nomo - What kind of mania will the Dodgers have this year?

Oct. 20, 1988

The Dodgers capped their miracle season with a 5-2 victory over the heavily-favored Oakland Athletics to win the World Series for the sixth time in Los Angeles.  

Since then, post-season misery. 

The 2003 edition of the Los Angeles Dodgers are part of an unenviable club of five teams that have not claimed a post-season victory within the last 14 years. The other futile teams? Try Kansas City, Montreal, Milwaukee and Tampa Bay (who have only been in existence since 1998). What has happened in that time? For brevity, Orel surgery, DAR-RYL, 99 losses in 92, Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields, Billy Ball, Glenn Hoffmann? 0-6 in post season action, Murdoch, $100 million dollar request from Piazza, G.M. Tom Lasorda, Kevin "the Sheriff" Malone, Carlos Perez, 100 million dollar contract for Kevin Brown, Davey Johnson. Did I mention Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields??? It was worth noting twice. 

But it couldn't get any worse in Dodgerland than last year's Fall Classic, which pitted cross-town rival, the Anaheim Angels, against lifetime rivals, the San Francisco Giants. The lesser of two evils prevailed. 

However, the new management team of Bob Daly, Dan Evans and Dave Wallace have attempted to deflate a ballooned payroll without mentioning that nasty "r" word, and while doing so, have kept the team competitive.  

Much of the credit belongs to Manager Jim Tracy. An admirer, and many ways a facsimile of Walter Alston, the Dodger skipper has what Bill Russell, Glenn Hoffman and Davey Johnson sorely lacked from their players: respect and trust. Tracy took his first year 86-win team from 2001 who lost their best hitter (Gary Sheffield,) their best pitcher (Chan-Ho Park) and their 40 save closer (Jeff Shaw) and turned them into a 92-win team in 2002.  

This year's team resembles last year's, with one notable exception. It an obvious cost-cutting move, the Dodgers traded away LA Dodger home run leader Eric Karros and Mark Grudzielanek for former Dodger and current wash-up Todd Hundley and Chad Hermansen. The loss of Karros was bitter for some Dodger fans, but the true reason for the trade was probably unloading Grudzielanek. Gruz reportedly did not get along well with Tracy, and for good reason, he stunk. Gruz offered little more at $5mil/year than his .271 AVG., no power, uninspired defense, no speed, and .301 OBP. Vin Scully couldn't even pronounce his name right. Good riddance "Grass-se-lan-ek". 

As for this year's roster, the Dodgers will have Paul LoDuca behind the plate. LoDuca gives the Dodgers catching stability not seen since the days of Mike Scioscia. Offensively, his numbers (.281, 10HR) were down from 2001 (.325, 25HR). Considering he never hit more than 8 HR in one minor league season, expect another 2002 performance. 

First base is now upgraded with aging star Fred McGriff, who is closing in on 500 career homeruns as fast as 40 years in age. The money is on 500 before 40. Dodger Stadium will likely present a greater challenge than Wrigley Field for McGriff to hit the long ball; the power alleys are 19 ft father away in Dodger stadium, but 22 HR is well within the realm of possibility for the Crime Dog. 

After hitting .334 at AAA, second base is Joe Thurston's to lose. Comparisons have been made to David Eckstien (yes, the Dodgers are now comparing their young talent with their little brothers from the south) but beware. His low walk totals (25 in AAA last season) bear a striking resemblance to the second "slacker" he's replacing. Thurston has speed, which will push the Dodgers to bat him second behind Dave Roberts, but he'll probably translate to .260 with 30-40 walks, which make him a seventh place hitter... barely. Not eighth place, that's occupied. 

Shortstop Cesar Izturis is all glove, no bat, which suits the Dodgers just fine, who have still have not gotten over Jose Offermann. Izturis led shortstops with a .979 fielding pct last year and has good range. Think Rey Ordonez both in the field and at the plate. 

All reports have been confirmed. Adrian Beltre is a year older, but perhaps not a year wiser. Following in the footstep of Raul Mondesi, Beltre is limited only by his desire and his patience at the plate. Beltre did not turn it on last year until the Dodgers threatened his playing time by bringing in Tyler Houston. A torrid stretch followed, but he fell in the same hole at the end of the year, swinging at pitches he shouldn't even be biting at. Defensively, he has good range, a strong arm, and nullifies bunt singles better than anyone else in the league. 

Shawn Green is back with his $14 mil/year price tag, and he may well be worth the money. Green plays a flawless right field. His offense is explosive. Many thought Green would suffer sans Gary Sheffield, and his early season numbers supported that argument. The Milwaukee pitching staff was the anecdote for the early season slump and Green never looked back. As the only feared offensive threat, Green posted his second straight 40+HR, 100+R and 100+RBI season. With an aging McGriff and Brian Jordan batting behind him, Green could very well walk over 110 times this year. 

In 2001 season, the leadoff combination of Tom Goodwin and Maquis Grissom was a complete failure due to their .286 and .250 OBP, respectively. Tracy, who gave a chance to Paul LoDuca last season, turned to 29 year old Dave Roberts. Roberts, trapped behind Kenny Lofton in Cleveland throughout his early career, exceeded expectations. Although his .355 OBP was bit lower than desired from a lead off man, it was a tremendous increase from the lead off spot a year before. Roberts' speed was huge asset for a team with little power in the lineup, stealing 45 bases in 55 attempts. Defensively, Roberts is solid. He is not blessed with a powerful arm, but covers a lot of ground and makes few mistakes. With the departure of platoon-mate Grissom, Roberts will hit against lefties, which he actually has been successful against his whole career, batting .281 with a .365 OBP, however, these stats may be misleading due to their small sample size (73 PA total).

Patrolling left field is the antithesis of Gary Sheffield, Brian Jordan. While Sheffield was painted as a malcontent by the Dodger brass, Jordan is a positive influence in the clubhouse. Sheffield plays a very cautiously defense, Jordan aggressive. Sheffield put up great numbers during 2001, and then struggled in the September (.216 BA). Jordan struggled with injury thought the season and came alive with September (.968 OPS, 30 RBI). His health will always be a concern. His days of 600 PA may be over, but as the biggest RH bat in the lineup, must stay relatively healthy for team success. 

Tracy utilizes his bench players more adeptly than Dodgers managers in the recent past. The bench production was a key element to their 92-win season. Leading the subs was Alex Cora. Labeled primarily as a late-inning defensive replacement, Cora was a presence at the plate (.291 BA, .371 OBP). Chad Hermansen may have approximately 150 PA to make his impact. His 30-20 potential has not been realized at any time in the major leagues. Mike Kinkade has worn out minor league pitching and hit .380 in 50 AB for the Dodgers last season. Look for him to steal some ABs from Fred McGriff, but his defense has historically been is atrocious and will probably not be an every day player in the National League. And then there is Todd Hundley. 

Pitching remains the biggest question mark. Three of the six starter pitchers are trying to make comebacks from injury. After 2 solid seasons with the Blue Crew, Kevin Brown started to fall on hard times with back, shoulder and elbow injuries. His fierce competitiveness has been both an asset and a drawback in his rehabilitation. Determined to come back to top form, he has made significant strides, but he possibly came back too early, as his 4.81 ERA in 17 appearances and his fastball only reaching the mid 90's on occasion indicate. Brown will probably return to form, but will he be able to sustain it for the entire year and for the 4 years remaining on his unprecedented contract?  

The commitment to make Darrin Driefort a starting pitcher is one of the great mysteries in baseball. Driefort , 31, has been dogged with arm troubles for the past 10 years, and has never thrown over 200 innings in a season. Even when he's pitched over 150 innings, he has been less than spectacular. Starts are mirror images. The first time through the opposing batting order, he's at his best. His fastball moves well and he has a heavy sinker, but without a third pitch in his repertoire, in particular, a change up, hitters figure him out quickly. His best role would be setting up Eric Gagne, which would make comebacks against the Dodgers in late innings a near impossibility. Dreifort has been very reluctant to be thrown in the bullpen in the past, stating his arm is better suited for a scheduled pitching program than spot appearances and it is unlikely for the Dodgers to have a $11 mil/yr set up man. 

Ishii-mania came to a nightmarish ending after a line drive off the bat of Brian Hunter fractured his skull. Spring training numbers have shown he has been rehabilitated physically and psychologically, but he must develop control. Ishii walked 106 batters in only 151 innings, and his inability to spot his fastball led to surrendering 20 HR.  

From the question marks to the exclamation points, Odalis Perez was so impressive that it easily validates trading away one of the better hitters in baseball to the league's most dominate team for him. Perez held opponents to a .226 average while averaging 1.5 walks per 9 innings in route to his 15 wins. Most impressively, he answered questions of durability after a terrible July with a dominating August and a solid September.  

Under the blanket of Ishii-mania, Perez's breakout season and Brown's attempted comeback, Hideo Nomo regained his early-career form. Nomo won 16 while losing 6 with a 3.32 ERA. Most significantly, Hideo has turned into the Dodgers big game pitcher, going 4-0 in September. 

In the starters punctuation analogy, Andy Ashby is a very sober period. If he fills in for starter injury, the Dodgers should hope it occurs on a home stand series; his ERA in Dodger stadium last season was 2.99 and 2.24 for his career.

The Dodgers feature, arguably, the most dominating closer in baseball. Due to his transition from starter to reliever, Eric Gagne's fastball increased approximately 6 mph to 96-98 and has a humiliating change-up. Opposing hitter batted an anemic .175 while he posted 52 saves and a 7-1 K/BB ratio. 

The Dodgers feature good middle relievers in Paul Quantrill (league leading 33 holds in 2002) and Giovanni Carrara (6 wins, 3.28 and 91 IP in 2002), so it was another mystery that they traded two top-line minor league pitchers for Paul Shuey.  

With Tracy at the helm, Los Angelinos can look forward for another competitive year from their ball club. Whether the Dodgers will end the long post season drought is probably in the hands of their trainers, attempting to keep a fragile, but imposing pitching staff, together though October. If the Dodgers do get Brown back in top form, a Brown/Perez/Nomo pitching rotation in the playoffs could be what the Dodgers need to get that elusive post season win. If not, they will have to dust off the line made famous by their ancestors, the Bums from the Borough: "Wait till next year!"