Chicago White Sox 2003 Season Preview

by David Marasco

Bartolo Colon - Did the Sox find their ace?

In the year 2000 the White Sox had more wins than any other team in the American League. They mixed seasoned players like Frank Thomas, Ray Durham and Jose Valentin with emerging stars like Magglio Ordonez, Paul Konerko and Carlos Lee, and tossed in a rotation full of kids for some lightning in the bottle. Going into 2001, GM Kenny Williams made the trade he thought would advance the Sox in the playoffs - David Wells moved from Toronto in exchange for Mike Sirotka, Kevin Beirne and Brian Simmons. The swap was a bust for both sides, injuries tore up the principles in the exchange and the throw-ins didn't pan out. Still, the White Sox got stuck paying big bucks for an "ace" that didn't produce. Going into 2002, Kenny Williams decided that the team needed another solid arm in the rotation. So Todd Ritchie came over from the Pirates in exchange for Kip Wells and Josh Fogg. Ritchie went 5-15 with a 6.06 ERA. The 30-year-old was released and is now in baseball Hell, Milwaukee. Meanwhile, Fogg went 12-12 with a 4.35 ERA, and Wells went 12-14 with a 3.58 ERA, the only two Pirates with double-digits wins. As the pair are in their mid-20s, the Pirates might have a good chunk of their future rotation courtesy of the White Sox. The White Sox made some big deals this off season, should Sox fans be covering their eyes?

The White Sox were in the middle of a blockbuster this past winter. First they sent Antonio Osuna and Delvis Lantigua to New York for El Duque. Yes, Delvis has left the building. They then turned around and packaged El Duque with Rocky Biddle and Jeff Liefer for Bartolo Colon and Jorge Nunuz. The positives - Colon should fill the role that the Sox had hoped for David Wells and Todd Ritchie, the Sox didn't have to give up great prospects, and unlike Williams' past ace-grabs, it wasn't a trade that aged the team by much. The negatives? The 1000+ innings over the past five years would be a little more concerning if his Dominican age wasn't revised from mid-20s to late-20s in a post-9/11 document check. More troubling is the fact that he's in the last year of his contract; while that might motivate him, it also means that the White Sox are either playing rent-a-player or they will cough up some big bucks for Colon next year.

In any case, Colon will sit at the top of the Chicago rotation with Mark Buehrle, who at 24 has a career record of 39-21 with a 3.52 ERA. His arm has seen a lot of work, but he looks like the real deal. The White Sox have youth in the rotation, adding 23-year old Jon Garland, who went 12-12 with a league average ERA last season, 25-year-old Danny Wright, and a surgically-reconstructed 24-year-old 6'10'' Jon Rauch. There's a lot of promise here, and if things can click in this rotation, the White Sox could go far.

The other big move in the off-season was the swap of Keith Foulke for Billy Koch. Foulke lost his job as closer in Chicago, and the A's gobbled him up. Koch walked far more batters and had a higher ERA last season, but is probably a happier camper. Foulke always wanted to be a starter, and made this clear to management. The White Sox have found a closer, but might have given up a better pitcher to get him.

The team-building competence of Kenny Williams is the big question that's been batted around the South Side for the past few years. The other puzzle has been "What happened to Frank Thomas?" Let's take a look at Frank Thomas from 1991 to 1997, using the PRO+ statistic. More or less OPS+ compares a player's OBA + SLG to league average, adjusting for home park (a score of 100 would be a league-normal player). For those interested in the nuts and bolts, see Baseball-Reference's Batting Glossary. Here are Frank's and Barry Bonds' best seasons from 1991 to 1997 sorted from best to last:

Player A	206	205	186	182	170	168	161	AVG - 182.6
Player B	212	181	180	178	178	177	174	AVG - 182.9

Which one is Frank and which one is Barry? These players are pretty evenly matched. But one of them became one of the two or three greatest hitters ever late in his career, and the other has fallen on hard times. Both finished second in the MVP race in 2000, and we know what has happened to Barry in the past two years. Who is Player A and who is Player B? Here's your answer:

	2000	2001	2002
Player A	191	262	275
Player B	160	95	117

Could we really expect Frank Thomas to follow Barry's career path? Of course not, but the point is that Frank was once one of the great bats in baseball. And yet this off-season management was able to trigger a "diminished skills" clause in his contract. In the end Thomas met with team owner Jerry Reinsdorf, and the two agreed to a contract restructuring that allowed both (mainly Frank) to save face. For the past few years there has been optimism, a hope that Frank would bounce back from his injuries and divorce to become the player he once was. But going into 2003 the mood seems a little different, that perhaps the Frank Thomas of the 1990s is gone forever. Farewell Big Hurt.

Frank Thomas's role as the big bopper in the White Sox lineup has been assumed by Magglio Ordonez, who has been overshadowed by Chicago's other excellent right fielder. For those of you who believe in batting average and homers, he's hit .300 with 30 dingers each of the past four years. By the new-fangled numbers, he's posted a rising OPS+ of 119, 125, 135 and 152 over that time span. He's learned how to go back on fly balls and developed into a good defensive player. Over in left field is Carlos Lee. When the White Sox moved this third base prospect to the outfield they hoped that he would remind fans of Albert Belle. So far he has done this only with his glove. While he has a high ceiling, he has not approached it. Over his four seasons his numbers haven't varied too far from his career averages of .335 in OBP and .475 in SLG. While his 75 walks (second on the team to Frank Thomas) are encouraging, he's just not cutting it for a corner outfielder. Completing the outfield are Aaron Rowand and Joe Borchard in center. Rowand made management unhappy by injuring himself on a dirt bike in the offseason (at least he didn't claim he was washing his truck), and should be more careful considering he has a prospect like Borchard waiting in the wings.

For the first time since 1994 Ray Durham won't be holding down the infield. Young Dominican D'Angelo Jimenez now plays second in his place. Jimenez is young, but is now on his third team. Another player on his third team is All-Star Paul Konekro, who rose quickly up the Dodgers chain, spun his wheels the Reds, and finally hit stride with the White Sox. To be honest, when I sat down to write this preview, I was going to pour praise on Konerko. But after a closer look at his numbers, it wouldn't be fair to label Carlos Lee as a disappointment while lauding Konerko. Compare Lee's .282/.335/.475 to Konerko's .287/.348/.483. Corner outfield and first base are roughly the same on the defensive spectrum, so no breaks for glovework. Given the hype piled on Konerko as he rose up through the Dodgers chain, if Lee is a disappointment who needs to show improvement, then so is Konerko. The only gray ink on either of their careers is Konerko's 7th place finish in HBP in 2000. Granted they are both young at 26, but they really should do more with their bats given where they play in the field. A prospect who looks like he will blossom is third baseman Joe Crede. White Sox fans have been hearing this name for a few years now, and he looks like the real deal. In the small sample size of 200 AB in 2002, he managed to knock out 12 homers. The downside of this was 8 walks to 40 strikeouts. The perceived lack of plate discipline might have just been a rookie adjustment, he had a more decent 26-48 ratio in the minors, showing similar power numbers. After two years of the Royce Clayton experiment, Jose Valentin moves back to short. While he's no A-Rod, he has nice power for a short stop, although he needs to improve on last year's .311 OBP. He makes fans cover his eyes with his glove from time to time, but he does have a flair for hitting in the clutch. At 32 he's one of the veteran players on the squad. At catcher the White Sox have brought back veteran Sandy Alomar Jr., a good move with so many youngsters in the rotation. However, the man the Sox are counting on in the future is Miguel Olivo, who put up great numbers in AAA last season.

So where will the White Sox go this year? It's hard to say, they always seem to either disappoint or surprise, with very little middle ground. With KC and Detroit is an unhappy morass, and Cleveland rebuilding, perhaps the White Sox can challenge the Twins for the central. In the end it will come down to how well Kenny Williams' moves pay off and which Frank Thomas shows up to play. And those are two big question marks.