Colorado Rockies 2003 Season Preview

By Paul Wysard

Can fish bloom in the mountains?

   In the decade of the 1990s, four teams and 1,800 games were added to the Major League master schedule.  41,349 homeruns were hit over ten years, 3.11 times as many as in the 1930s in just 1.75 times as many contests.  Homers-per-game rose to 1.91, with several seasons over 2 and one at 2.27, whereas the rate 50 to 60 years earlier was just a little more than 1.  We all remember the race for 70 between McGwire and Sosa, and Bonds hit 73 after that, but the most remarkable aspect of recent times has been the vast number of people who have hit between 30 and 50.

The reasons for the boom have been discussed at length.  We suspect juiced balls and bodies, we see statistics reflecting expansion-diluted pitching, and we watch strong and well-trained athletes performing within several conditions conducive to the long ball.  And some observers have said, "Of course, it's Coors."  Well... not exactly.

Colorado has never led the Big Leagues in homeruns since it came on board in 1993. It had the second-highest total twice, in strike-shortened 1995 and in 1997.  Look instead at Camden and Jacobs and the old Kingdome in Seattle --- most of the homer history of the '90s was written in those parks.  In any case, lots of runs are scored in Coors.  The huge field itself allows plenty of doubles, although it's interesting to note that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rangers have almost always hit more two-baggers than the Rockies.  Whatever... walks, and hits of all kinds, abound up in Denver, with the atmospherics and psychology making Coors a continuing nightmare for pitchers.

The dream will not be any sweeter in 2003.  Jason Jennings parlayed a commendable attitude into 16 wins and the Rookie of the Year award.  He could end up a good one, but it's difficult to foresee that number of wins as a sophomore.  Veteran Denny Neagle (8-11, 5.26) still does not seem comfortable and young Denny Stark (11-4, 4.00) is yet another sophomore.  Shawn Chacon had a fine Spring outing as this was being written, but he has been a 5-10, 5+ hurler in his first two full seasons.  Closer Jose Jimenez surprised everyone last year with 41 saves, but he also blew 6 and lost 10, so Rockies fans best not bet on a repeat.

The everyday offense remains a dangerous one.  A healthy Larry Walker, although aging, is still capable of snatching a batting or homerun title.  Todd Helton was not up to expectations last summer, i.e., 50 homers and doubles, 140 RBI, but a cranky back is apparently better, and he is Coors hitting personified.  This reviewer sees a good year for OF Jay Payton, who has both speed and power, and he may lead off in place of departed Juan Pierre, who took steals but no pop to Florida.  Jose Hernandez has been brought in to provide punch at 3rd, but will play a lot at short until the summer, as incumbent Juan Uribe is a Spring Training casualty.  2nd base presents a confusing battle between several less-known youngsters, the most versatile of whom may see time within the 3b-ss situation.

The two players to watch closely are CF Preston Wilson and C Charles Johnson.  The two came up from Florida; the former is a long-ball hitter who can run and who has reportedly put some personal problems behind him, while the latter is a recognized defensive expert with some plate power who has lingered on a bland plateau the past couple of seasons.  Colorado offers great opportunities for these two.

The bench features Greg Norton, who can play at 1st or 3rd, catcher Bobby Estallela, who has never quite broken through, and outfielders Jack Cust and Ben Petrick, hitters who always seem to be  "a year away," on the trading-block, or both.

Lineup:
Payton,           lf
Butler,            2b   (Ozuna)
Walker,          rf
Wilson,          cf
Helton,          1b
Hernandez,    ss
Johnson,         c
Stynes,          3b  (Butler,Norton)

*Note: Manager Clint Hurdle says he will alternate lefties Walker and Helton between the 3rd and 5th slots, around right-sider Wilson at cleanup.

Pitchers  ---  see above

Prediction:  Crucial injuries to the San Diego Padres'  Trevor Hoffman and Phil Nevin open the door for the Rockies to climb to fourth in the NL West.  Beyond that, there is little hope, as they will be chasing three other clubs who are several cuts above.