Cincinnati Reds 2003 Season Preview

by Adam Ulrey

Remember this Superstar?

If you're a fan of the Reds or baseball period this will be a fun lineup to watch. On the other hand if you're a fan of winning baseball this will not be the team to watch. The Reds have seven guys who will probably hit 15 or more homers. The problem will be that their pitchers will not be able to get anybody out. When your number one starter is Jimmy Haynes and his lifetime ERA is 5.24, you're in big trouble. Look for Bob Boone to be the first manager fired this year. He's one of the worst managers around. How this guy who never has had a winning season in six years as a manager still has a job is mind-boggling. Then add in the fact that he doesn't want Griffey Jr. and lobbied hard for Phil Nevin to come over in a trade for Junior. It also doesn't help when GM in Jim Bowden hasn't figured out what a major league pitcher is. He keeps going out and bringing in everybody else's castaways. There's a reason these guys have been let go, it's because they're bad. This was once a proud organization and along with the Orioles we have watched management turn both of these teams into bottom feeders.

The one good move that I will give Bowden credit for is playing the few good young players they have in their minor leagues. Sean Casey, who is looking to rebound from an injury-plagued season, will handle first base. For the first time in his career he failed to reach the .300 plateau and double figures in homers. Aaron Boone finally had the kind of year that the organization had hoped for. The big reason was he finally stayed healthy and will be playing a new position at second. He played all 162 games hitting 26 homers, 38 doubles, 32 steals and 87 RBIs. The only disappointment was his low .241 batting average. The veteran Barry Larkin who has become known as band-aid man with all his injuries will play shortstop. Larkin is making 9 million a year and is a shell of the player he used to be. This is another one of Bowden's dumb moves. I understand loyalty, but he gave Larkin 27 million over three years even though Larkin was 36 and on the downside of his career. With Felipe Lopez who came over from the Blue Jays and a much better player at this time. It's a shame he'll be on the bench so the Reds can trot out 39 year-old Larkin. This team needs to find at bats for Lopez who during spring training was crushing the ball. The new kid on the block is third baseman Brandon Larson. He has tremendous power, but that's at the minor league level. The Reds though are counting on him for 20 homers and steady play at the corner. Jason Larue is the catcher and last year had a solid year with the bat hitting 12 homers and batting .250.

The outfield could turn out to be the best hitting tandem in all of baseball. Adam Dunn, who stands 6'6 and weighs 240 pounds, will hit some towering homers, but needs to raise his average up from .249. He still hit 26 homers and does have a very good eye with a .400 OBP. The one area where he can hurt you is on defense where he made 15 errors last year. In center will be hopefully a healthy Ken Griffey Jr. So far this pre-season he has shown no signs of any lingering problem. Look for him to rebound and be in the neighborhood of 50 homers. He has a chip on his shoulder and he also has too much pride to not prove that he's still one of the best players in the league. Over in right field will be Austin Kearns, another monster standing 6'3'' and weighing 230 pounds. He batted .315 with 15 homers and 56 RBIs in just over 100 games. This outfield has the potential to hit around 100 homers and possible drive in over 350 runs. The one weakness could be Dunn and Kearns as outfielders as neither is considered more than average.

The team turns ugly when we look at their starting pitching. Haynes had by far his best year ever last year and it still wasn't anything to jump up and down about. He was 15-10 with a team leading 4.12 ERA. Ryan Dempster, who came over at the trading deadline to help try and get the Reds into the playoffs, was a major bust. He will be second in the rotation. He was 5-5 with a 6.19 ERA after coming over from Florida. His upside though is very high and the Reds hope they see it this year. Converted closer Danny Graves will now try his hand at starting where at the end of last year he did very well. Overall he was 7-3 with 32 saves, but a very nice 3.19 ERA. The Reds are hoping he can become a good starter like his days in the minors with the Indians. This is where it gets really ugly for the Reds. Former Pirate lefty Jimmy Anderson will bring his 8-13 record and another high ERA of 5.44 to the rotation. If the Pirates are letting him go what does that tell you? Paul Wilson who pitched last year for the Devil Rays will now become the fifth starter. He was 6-12 with a 4.88 ERA and walked 67 while only striking out 111.

The bullpen will be good, but it will have to be with all the innings their going to have to work. The staff is going to get hammered so that makes the bullpen even more important. Scott Williamson will be the closer a position he held three years ago before blowing out his arm. He's finally back to the level he was back then before the injury. When he's on you could see the radar gun hit triple digits. The rest of the pen will be solid if not spectacular at times. Scott Sullivan has averaged over 100 innings 4 of the last 5 years. Lefty Gabe White has become fairly reliable out of the pen to get out the tough lefty hitters. He was 6-1 with a 2.98 ERA. Josias Manzanillo who missed most of last year because of injuries was tremendous for the Pirates back in 2001. If he is anywhere close to that the Reds will be thrilled. Veteran lefties Kent Mercker and Felix Heredia will help along with the one youngster in the group John Riedling.

This is not a team you'll see in the post season, but like I said earlier they will be fun to watch hit. If this team ends up at .500 then they have over achieved. I wouldn't be surprised if they finish behind the Pirates, who have better pitching. So for all those loyal Reds fans this could be a long season. 

Another view on the Reds
By Vladimir Larrovitch

This year the Cincinnati Reds move into the Great American Ballpark. No doubt on paper management saw a great team led by Ken Griffey Jr. ready to roost on top of the NL Central. That hasn't been the way things have worked recently. The big bats of Junior and Barry Larkin have been silenced by injury. During the off-season the Reds tried to deal Griffey, but couldn't put together a deal. Like it or not, they still have the superstar they planned to build around.

Injuries have plagued the team recently. Griffey is the big story because he came with such hype, but Barry Larkin also seemed like a Hall of Fame lock a few years ago. Larkin is now long-of-tooth, so he's a question mark even if he does come back healthy. History will probably be kinder to Junior and Barry than the present, but it would be nice to see Larkin put together another good season or two before he hangs up his spikes. Austin Kearns was batting .315 in about a hundred games before his hamstring also went kablooie. Brandon Larson, who looks like he'll be playing third, only played 103 games last year. Yep, injuries. Remember that great Reds team from the 1980s? Eric the Red, Kal Daniels and the like? Seemed like all of them had injury shortened-careers. Maybe there's something in the water.

OK, with Junior and Kearns that's two thirds of the outfield. Completing the story is Adam Dunn, who generated his power at the cost of 170K's. Don't think he's a free swinger though, he also had 128 walks. He's an up-and-comer, if the other men in the outfield can come back, it will be a real strength for the Reds.

Larking and Larson make one side of the infield, the healthy side consists of Aaron Boone at second and Sean Casey at first. Boone has had injuries in his past, but played the full slate last season. He provides nice pop for the middle of the infield. Casey hasn't lived up to his potential. Again, if things go well for the Reds, the infield could look rosy, if not, disaster area. The same can be said for Jason LaRue, who holds down the catching position.

While the position players are mainly veterans who may or may not be broken, the pitching staff can't claim the proven vet tag. The best of last year was Jimmy Haynes, who posted a 15-10 record. The other double-digit winners? There was none. It's so bad that the Reds have moved their closer Danny Graves into the rotation. He had nice numbers, but there is always the question as to how a closer will convert to a starter. Super-prospect Ryan Dempster came over from the Marlins, and posted a 5-5 record despite not pitching very well. Paul Wilson has come over from Tampa Bay, who really knows what that means? The bullpen is decent, but will see far too much work this year.

If the Reds manage to do anything in their first season in the Great American Ballpark, then perhaps the team trainer should be the MVP. They have lots of good pieces, it's just a question of how broken they are.

Lots have things have gone off the road in Cincy recently...