Chicago Cubs 2003 Season Preview

Sammy and a strong rotation give hope to Cubs fans

It can be very difficult for a loving and loyal and yet somewhat jaded fan to write an objective season preview. The word "hope" probably appears too much, and the word "statistics" too little. It's also very difficult to think about what the team has to do to win when experience tells you they'll find a way to blow it, no matter what. Mostly, though, it becomes increasingly difficult to root for a team that raises ticket prices twice in four years, especially when three of those four years were 90-loss seasons. But here goes:

What will be different from last year?
The Cubs have a new manager, Dusty Baker. Normally one does not consider the manager to be a team's major off-season acquisition, but that's what happened this year. The Cubs' official website called the first spring training game "perhaps the most hyped exhibition game in baseball history" because it was against Baker's old team. That's ridiculous, of course, but it gives you an idea of the deification of Baker going on in Chicago. Dusty will do a fine job with this team because he's a fine manager, and he will understand how to deal with Sammy Sosa from working with Barry Bonds for the last ten years. But will he ensure the Cubs of a pennant-winning season? Of course not.

On the field, the winter did not prove quite so kind. Mike Remlinger was the best signing of the lot, but he is getting rather grey. Finding help for the bullpen was certainly a priority, and he's really a pretty good find. A couple infield veterans were brought in, Eric Karros and Mark Grudzielanek, hopefully to back up and/or push the younger guys (Hee Seop Choi and Bobby Hill) who ought to be starting. Regardless, they are all better than DeLino DeShields and Fred McGriff. Paul Bako and Damian Miller are probably upgrades over Todd Hundley and Joe Girardi at catcher, but neither makes up for the trade of Robert Machado to the Brewers last June. Machado struck me as robust and promising at catcher, and I hope the Cubs don't regret giving him up. Shawn Estes was the final off-season acquisition worth mentioning, a starter who will have to fill Jon Lieber's 200-IP shoes. Letting Lieber go may also turn out to be a mistake. He was the most consistent starter the last four years, but arm surgery led the Cubs to let him walk, and he walked right into the Yankees' Starter-Go-Round.

What will be just like last year?
The starting rotation is a gem. Young guys who throw hard. Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are likely going to do exactly what they did last year -strike out guys, throw a lot of pitches, and leave somewhat early with double digit strikeouts and the lead. The other flamethrowing starters on this team are Matt Clement and Carlos Zambrano. Clement was so exciting to watch last year because I felt like every time he went out he might throw a no hitter. Granted, he was never like that with the Marlins, and 2002 may have been a fluke, but another good year from him would absolutely solidify the starters. Zambrano is so young there's very little by which to judge him. If he is more like Wood and Prior and less like flameout flamethrower Juan Cruz, he could take the rotation from very good to great.

Sammy Sosa is still Sammy Sosa, even if he is now the 34-year-old version of Sammy Sosa. Despite his new commitment under Baker - he showed up to spring training at the same time as his teammates this year - he can't keep slugging like this forever. But expect the same production for at least a little while longer - 50ish homers, oodles of RBIs, and a good average.

The left side of the infield is slated to be shared by Mark Bellhorn and Alex Gonzalez, both of whom are adequate but unspectacular. Bellhorn will play a decent third and give you some power - 28 homers last year. Gonzalez will field beautifully but not hit too much. Not being big name guys or even big name prospects, these may be the two to go if the offense isn't doing enough.

What will hopefully be different from last year?
One word: Bullpen. The closer saved 19 of 28 save opportunities. The setup man had a 7.33 ERA. Antonio Alfonseca and Kyle Farnsworth weren't the only problems last year, but they're the guys who will need to come back to the form of previous years if this team wants to keep the leads the starters will get. The starters will not be 8-inning guys, and somebody is going to have to step in and finish off the last three innings. Remlinger was a good start. Farnsworth may never again see an ERA like his 2.74 in 2001, but let's hope he never sees another 7.33, either. One interesting sidenote to the bullpen situation is the attempted comeback of Rod Beck. Anyone who watched the last several weeks of the 1998 Wild Card season knows the kind of clutch guy Beck could be. I'm rooting for him.

The two-thirds of the outfield not named Sosa was the other massive disappointment last year. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, I found myself wishing the Cubs had saved their money on left fielder Moises Alou. In the past, he was a very, very good player, but as the oldest position player on this team, his best days are almost certainly over. The Cubs' offense may turn on the kind of season he has. Center field will belong to Corey Patterson again, but I think a number of us are still waiting to see the Corey Patterson we heard about all through his minor league career. The most telling stat from last year was probably his .284 on base percentage, which is dismal in and of itself, but is even worse when you consider he spent a fair amount of that time batting leadoff. Hill is the favorite for leadoff this year, but if Patterson doesn't start producing, you have to wonder how much patience they'll have with him, and who could possibly play center in his place.

In short?

In short, this team is probably going to be far better than last year's team. That's not saying a whole lot. A lot will have to happen for this team to be really good, and here it is: If Alou has one more good year, if the starters do what they're supposed to, if Remlinger, Farnsworth, and Alfonseca can hold the bullpen together, if the infield lives up to its potential, and if one offensive player has a superb breakout year, they could win the division. I don't expect these things to happen, but I expect a season over .500.