Boston Red Sox 2003 Season Preview

By Adam Ulrey

Jeremy Giambi is an Epstein-style addition - He brings the OBP

The 2003 Red Sox will have a whole new approach because of the hiring in the off-season of 29-year-old GM Theo Epstein. He brings a fresh and new way of looking at an organization and you can already see his influence by the off-season acquisitions. The Red Sox also made some noise when they hired long time stats guru Bill James to help in the evaluation of players. Between them and the other Boston brass they went out and brought in Kevin Millar, Todd Walker, Bill Mueller, David Ortiz and Jeremy Giambi. They all have one thing in common and that is the ability to get on base. All of them have a .350 or better lifetime OBP. The goal is too have more people on base for Manny Ramirez and Nomar Garciaparra to drive in. Plus they have also given manager Grady Little many options when it comes to putting a lineup together based on who's pitching. The bench will also be a huge improvement over Carlos Baerga, Jose Offerman and Benny Agbayani to name a few. I also think it's about time somebody had the brains to realize that closers are overrated. Epstein feels that it's foolish to be paying a closer millions of dollars to get three outs, so he has assembled a very good bullpen and you could see between three and four guys with 15 saves each. I have been saying for years that closers are overpaid and in most cases worthless. The Padres would have finished last like they have over the last three years with or without Trevor Hoffman, who they are paying 8 million a year. That 8 million could have brought you 4 or 5 players that would have helped them more than one closer ever will. This is a team to keep your eyes on. This could be their year to surprise a lot of teams. This game needs the Epsteins and James of the world to don a new way of thinking and running a team.

The infield will see as many as four different players over at first base. Kevin Millar will also see sometime in right and left field, but will probably play a lot of first. Cliff Floyd says that Millar is one of the best hitters he has ever seen or played with. He has quietly hit 80 doubles, 36 homers and batted over .300 for the last two years. He is an above average fielder so they will be fine from a defensive standpoint. You will also see David Ortiz who bats from the left side getting time there along with being the DH. Ortiz hit 20 homers and drove in 75 runs last year to go with a .275 average. Jeremy Giambi will also play first along with some time in the outfield to get his left-handed bat into the lineup. Last year he hit 20 homers in limited time and had an OPB of over .400, so look for him to get 400 or more at bats. Shea Hillenbrand could also see some time there and he will most likely be the back up to third base behind Bill Mueller. The first acquisition for Epstein was the trade that brought Todd Walker over from the Reds to play second. Walker batted .299 but showed some gap power by hitting 42 doubles and 11 homers. His bat will be a big improvement over the slew of players that manned it last year. He is not known for his glove, but it's above average. Over the last two years he has only made 19 errors. The shortstop is one of the best pure hitters in the game and is the second best hitting shortstop trailing only Alex Rodriguez and it's not by much. Last year he hit 56 doubles, had 24 homers, drove in 120 runs and batted .310 his lowest average since 1997, his first full time season. Considering that he was coming off a severe wrist injury that sidelined him for most of 2001, his season was remarkable. Third base will be Bill Mueller who since the Giants let him go have regretted it. He does nothing flashy, he just does everything well. He goes about his business and at the end of the year you realize how good of a number two hitter he is and that he has a very good glove. He also carries a good OBP of .370. The catching will be handled by Jason Varitek who had a disappointing season batting .266 and hitting only 10 homers, look for him to rebound. Lou Merloni and Damien Jackson give the Red Sox two players who can play any of the infield positions and in Jackson's case can be a valuable pinch runner in late inning situations.

The outfield will be one of the best hitting groups in all of baseball, but with Manny Ramirez and Trot Nixon you don't exactly throw Gold Glove in the same sentence when talking about these two. Left field will be where Ramirez will play, but it's his bat you need and want because this guy wakes up crushing the baseball. Every time he hits the ball it looks like that screaming baseball you see all the time on ESPN when they announce who went yard for the day. He just stings the hell out of the ball. He missed almost 40 games with a broken finger and still hit 33 homers and drove in 107 runs. He also led the league in hitting with a .349 average. It was the seventh time in the last eight years that he has hit over .300 and the time he didn't he still managed to hit .294. Between him and Nomar there might not be a better 3-4 combination in any lineup. With the revamped lineup that the Red Sox have put together don't be surprised to see Ramirez with around 150 or more RBIs. In center field you have one of the better lead off hitters in the game in Johnny Damon. One of Damon's better qualities is his durability; he has never played in fewer than 145 games in any season. He was one of only two players to have double figures in doubles, triples and homers. He also plays terrific defense and with his speed gives the Red Sox a real stolen base threat at the top of the lineup. In right field will be Trot Nixon who saw all his power numbers go up with 36 doubles, 24 homers and 94 RBIs. But his downfall is the consistent inability to hit left handed pitching batting, only .233 with just 3 homers. Look for him to platoon now that Millar has joined the team. Against right-handed pitching Nixon crushes the ball.

The pitching is led by arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Pedro Martinez. In four of the last six years he has led the league in ERA and the two times he didn't he posted ERAs of 2.39 and 2.89. He has also led the American League in strikeouts three of the last four years. When he's on he is the most dominating pitcher in the game today. If he has a concern it's that with his slight frame of 175 pounds he is starting to show a little wear missing 28 starts over the last four years with arm troubles. The Red Sox no matter how good this team is will not win without him pitching. There's no other way to look at it. When he's on the mound he intimidates teams and makes a ball do things that are just hard to imagine. His movement on his fastball is disgusting and he leaves hitters shaking their heads. Behind him is Derek Lowe who had a break out year winning 21 and losing just 8. He had the second best ERA in the AL right behind his teammates with a 2.58. The question will be can he come back and do it again. Last year was his first in any starting rotation after spending his whole career in relief. Tim Wakefield is coming off his best year since 1995 after going 11-5 with a 2.81 ERA. Being a knuckleball pitcher he fits in at the number three slot. Teams will see the flame throwers Martinez and Lowe then they'll see this guy throw the ball up in what will seem like forever before the ball gets there. Casey Fossum the subject of trade rumors all winter long will be the fourth starter. The Red Sox didn't want to trade him nor was looking to do it, but every time a trade offer came the other team wanted Fossum back. He has the ability to be a real gem in this league. He was 5-4 with a nice 3.46 ERA, but where he really showed why everybody is so excited about him is his strikeout to walk ratio (101-30). John Burkett will be back and look for him to rebound and be a solid contributor especially out of the fifth spot in the rotation. He was 13-8, but his ERA was higher than Boston would like at 4.58. You can never have too many arms and that's why Epstein went out and brought in Robert Person from the Phillies and Ryan Rupe from the Devil Rays just in case anybody falters on the staff.

This is where I really believe the Red Sox will shine and that's with their bullpen. They are doing what I believe every team should do and that is not pay a closer the money that these guys get. No one in the bullpen will be making much more than 3 million and most will be making a million. What Epstein did was stockpile the bullpen with a core of quality veteran pitchers; Alan Embree, Mike Timlin, Ramiro Mendoza the former Yankee, Bob Howry, Chad Fox, Wayne Gomes a former closer with the Phillies, Frank Castillo and possibly Willie Banks. You could see as many as three or four guys with 15 saves. Maybe one will emerge, as the go to guy, but it won't be your typical 8 million dollar closer, which is simply a waste of money. I can't tell you how many times I have seen a so called set-up pitcher come into the game and mow the opposition down only to see the team go to its closer in the ninth and get shelled. Unless you have one of a hand full of truly great closers no one should be paying anybody over 2 or 3 million to do the same job. You're just putting too much money into a guy who in most cases you're counting on for 60 games and no more than three outs a game.

The Red Sox will win big and possibly even beat the Yankees out for the division if Pedro can stay healthy and they get good production from the top of the lineup. This team is good enough to win 100 games and there are very few teams you can say that about. With over 50 games between the Blue Jays, Orioles and Devil Rays the Bosox should clean up. I really like the direction of this team and how the Red Sox have put this team together.

Disagree? E-mail Adam Ulrey.