Atlanta Braves 2003 Season Preview

by Paul Wysard

Parting is such Sweet Sorrow... But I wish Ted was still around

Let's begin by sharing some conspiracy theories. First, the club was willing to have Tom Glavine back, but only at the same salary, or with a token boost, for one to two years. Anything beyond that was unacceptable because: (a) Someone (Leo Mazzone?) saw something at the end of 2002 and in the post-season that indicated the franchise southpaw and symbol since the miracle of 1991 was at least beginning to move over the hill (b) Upper management was irked at Glavine's union activities in the sense that his time and energy were sapped, thus exacerbating the problem mentioned in (a) above and (c) Ownership couldn't care less about baseball as part of the now- crumbling AOL/Time Warner empire; Glavine or Maddux could be kept, but not both, and if the two of them defected, no tears would be shed. Say or believe what you want about Ted Turner, who has just "left the building," but he was willing to spend to win --- for the fans, the TV audience, and his own competitive spirit --- and he surely would have developed another scenario, such as he did with the acquisitions of Maddux and McGriff years ago. And then Maddux fooled everyone a bit; he went to arbitration, which meant another potential high salary, Millwood, had to go, leaving... Estrada.

As for Glavine himself, recent reports hint that both he and some in the leadership were saddened by the divorce, that he would have preferred to stay. If so, why was he so adamant about a four-year deal? Why not compromise? One has to suspect that the southpaw's tough stance was at least in part influenced by his position, status and visibility within the union. He felt compelled to show the flag for the larger cause of players' independence.

But those who look forward to the Braves' demise should not celebrate too soon. This is a very resilient organization, and, when given the tools to do the job, General Manager John Scheurholz can sniff out deals and talent in concert with Manager Bobby Cox and Mazzone. In fact, one of the best off-season moves was to tie down the latter with a nicer contract, because now he can work with new starters Mike Hampton, Paul Byrd, and Russ Ortiz. Hampton is young enough, healthy enough, and feisty enough to make a good comeback in a knowledgeable and winning environment. Byrd worked once before in Atlanta and he obviously wanted to return. Critics said Ortiz was tiring and "short-arming" at the end of last season; if that in truth was the case, Mazzone's "long-toss" training regimen cannot be anything but helpful.

The arrival of Robert Fick at 1b is as good as can be hoped for in the quest for more power at the position. A decided weakness has been the lack of run production there for what seems like many years, since McGriff's heyday. Other proven power resides with the Jones guys --- Chipper in left field has 7 consecutive 100-RBI seasons going and there is no reason not to expect an 8th; Andruw in center is already a Hall-of-Fame caliber fielder and 30-homer man, but he presents an interesting case. He will be 26, with lots of post-season and other experience, the same age as when other greats had become firmly established, i.e. Ruth, Williams, Mays, Aaron, Musial, Ott, Mathews, and Frank Robinson. Will he move, more or less permanently, into that milieu --- .300, 40-45 hr, 125 RBI, 110 runs, 25 steals --- or will he remain simply very good at .260, 30, 100, 100, 15. Fans wish for the higher totals, but numbers somewhere in between would make the playoffs most reachable. And then there is Gary Sheffield in right. If he stays healthy, he should contribute statistics among all of those mentioned above.

The left side of the infield is an enigma as we look at it as Spring Training begins. SS Rafael Furcal can be an offensive force, with superior speed and good contact hitting, but realistic fans may well cringe when they envision him booting a ball in a tight situation in the post-season. Ozzie Smith, he ain't. Aging Vinnie Castilla can, amazingly, still pick and throw from 3rd, but the bat and the legs have slowed, and the prediction here is that he will be probably the first to be replaced during summer. Mark deRosa has shown that he can hit. He has played at 3rd, and could step in if Castilla falters, but that would leave 2b open, where deRosa is currently slated to start. That leaves Marcus Giles, very attractive to Fantasy players at the Keystone, but not so to Cox. Go figure.

Javy Lopez says he is in the best pre-season condition in years. If true, that is a plus of the first magnitude for the team. Otherwise, the catching will be shared with Henry Blanco, a superb defender who can cut down prospective base-thieves. And Fick could be a third receiver if trouble occurs; that is a good situation. The bench is not inspiring, truth be told, with journeyman Darren Bragg and the two Francos --- old Julio and under-used Matt. If young SS Wilson Betemit is kept up, he will sit, which won't help in the short or long run.

There is much discussion of a decline in the bullpen. Some good folks departed, but Darren Holmes is still there, and newcomers Ray King(L) and veteran closer Roberto Hernandez(R) and someone else Mazzone is sure to develop will be more than ready to set up John Smoltz, whose stuff, style and 55 saves last season cannot be ignored by predictors or pretenders.

Prediction: The Braves win their 12th straight Division Title, holding off the improved Phillies(a possible Wild Card) by 3-4 games. Beyond that, this reviewer and fan of this team for almost 60 years has a long memory, cold feet, and... no comment.

Projected Lineup:
ss Furcal
2b deRosa (Giles)
rf Sheffield
lf C.Jones
cf A.Jones
1b Fick
3b Castilla
c Lopez (Blanco)
sp Maddux, Hampton, Ortiz, Byrd, Marquis
rp Holmes, King, Hernandez
cl Smoltz