St. Louis Cardinals 2002 Season Preview

by Oscar Lopez

Two years in a row they have made the playoffs. And this year without McGwire their chances improve. I loved the big guy, but the past two years he was more of a distraction than the powerful force he once was. He would be the first to tell you that; that's why he quit, because he no longer could produce and hadn't since '99. Hint: Remember how the Mariners improved when they got rid of big stars Griffey, Johnson and Rodriguez? It doesn't necessarily follow that any team that loses superstars will automatically become a great team, but the Cards have been a fine team the past two years even with McGwire's struggles.

Instead, the Cards are actually the beneficiaries of Jason Giambi signing with the Yankees. The arrival of Giambi left no room for Tino Martinez in New York. Tino may lack Giambi's charisma and may not quite have the power stats (.280/.329/.501 vs .342/.477/.660,) but he has driven in between 105 and 141 runs every year since 1995 except for one and last year hit 34 homers and drove in 113 runs. Some hyper-critical members of the New York press claimed he was over the hill, like his good buddy Paul O'Neil. But Tino is just 34 and will join with second baseman Fernando Vina, shortstop Edgar Renteria and third sacker and unanimous 2001 rookie of the year Albert Pujols to form one of the National's League's best infields. Vina is probably the best second baseman on D in this league and he is a rally ignitor, although it would help if he had a little more discipline at the plate -- he hit .303, but had an OBA of .357, kind of low for a lead-off man. Renteria was kind of sloppy in the field last year, but he can play better defense than he did in '01. He drove in many key runs, and he may become the type of shortstop who is good for 80 RBI. Pujols had a fantastic rookie campaign and figures to improve -- when a young man hits .327 with 47 doubles, 37 homers and 130 RBI and 112 runs, it is easy to forget he will only be 23 this year!

The outfield is rock solid, with Jim Edmonds anchoring the centerfield position. He wasn't quite as spectacular as the previous year when he arrived from the Coast, but he is about as good defensively as they come, and he was .304/30/110. We Cardinal fans will take him. J. D. Drew, who was so controversial in his early years over his contract disputes with the Phils, has settled into the kind of player most people thought he would be. He is an excellent fielder, has a shotgun for an arm, and although he missed some time due to injuries, he still hit 27 homers and drove in 73 in a mere 375 trips to the plate (BA: .323). Placido Polanco played left and also hit .300, .307 to be exact, so you have a .300-hitting outfield. But Polanco lacks power--he had only 3 homers and a puny 38 RBI in 564 at bats. Japanese import So Taguchi, in his first MLB season, may well push Polanco to play left field full time, or they may share left.

The Redbirds are only a little above average behind the plate. Mike Matheny is more than adequate behind the plate, but his average slipped to .218 last year. You can't have any regulars hitting .218 (with an equally pathetic .276 OBA) on a team that is determined to reach the World Series. Eli Marrero has good power and speed for a catcher, but he is not the backstop Matheny is, so they will probably share the catching dutires. Marrero already is the full time caddie for two Cardinal starters.

Many experts think the Cardinals strong starting seven (with an above average catcher), combined with their rotation, will be enough to carry them to the top. They may make it with their polished infield and outfield, and the pitching might come through, but there are too many questions here to just hand the Cards the flag coming out of the gate.

Matt Morris is the only one I am really counting on, and that's if he doesn't get injured again, as he did in '98-'99 when his career was just taking off, after a 12-9 rookie year in '97. But he led the NL in victories last year with 22 and had a slim 3.16 ERA. A definite ace at age 27. Now if most of the other starters pitch as well as they have at their best then you have a pretty good rotation. Andy Benes once looked like he was going to be one of the premier pitchers in the game. Injuries have nagged him throughout his career and at age 34 he no longer is discussed as a future Cooperstown honoree. Still, he was won 150 major league games. Last year, bothered again by arm problems, he was full of sevens--a 7 and 7 won-lost record with a 7.38 ERA. St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan loves reclamation projects and this is Benes, a mid-western boy, on his second time around with the Cards.

Darryl Kile is a 200-inning man and he won 20 in 200, going 16-11 last year. He is about right where he should be -- a number three starter on a good team. After him, it's all questions. Bud Smith was brought up late season to try and patch up the hole left by Ankiel, and he was 3-0, 0.43 in September with a no-hitter. But one month doesn't equate to an entire season. And what of Ankiel? He still has enormous potential, but is having another tough spring. I don't count on him for anything. They acquired Woody Williams from San Diego in August and he went 7-1 as a Redbird, so if either he or Smith pitches like they did after becoming Cardinals for the entire season, then things are looking good. Finally Garret Stephenson won 16 in 2000, but was injured most of last year. You like to have four reliable starters to win a pennant and they really only have two, Morris and Kile. Benes, Williams, Smith, even Stephenson could fill in the three and four roles but there are questions about all of them.

If they can get five or six solid innings out of most of the starters, then they have Steve Kline, Dave Veres, and the Mikes, veteran Timlin and youngster Matthews, to set the stage for newly acquired closer Jason Isringhausen, who became a fine closer in Oakland after the Mets gave up on him as a starter. As I mentioned last year, La Russa (the winningest active manager with 1,827) and Duncan always seem to find a way to carry a few former Oakland players in St. Louis--McGwire being the prime example.

A good solid club, more polished than most. If they can just get four stud pitchers, they truly could make it to the World Series.

Ten Years Ago...

Our Cardinals Preview from April 1992, by Rick Hines:

The Cardinals are coming off a surprising second-place finish in the N.L. East in '91 after finishing last in 1990. Joe Torre begins his second full year as manager.

Strengths-Infield defense of Andres Galarraga, Jose Oquendo, Ozzie Smith and Todd Zeile, catcher Tom Pagnozzi (Gold Glove winner) and center fielder Ray Lankford. Cards have veteran pitching staff, but no starter stands out, unless Magrane is fully recovered from "Tommy John" surgery. Lee Smith and Todd Worrell give them an outstanding pen.

With the fences pulled in 10 feet, the Birds should smack a few more homers. Felix Jose has supposedly been working on putting some loft in his swing. Zeile and leftfielder Guerrero should also benefit from shorter distances. Lankford is being compared to Lou Brock, and could easily crack 15 homers with 85 runs batted in.

Weaknesses-Guerrero in left and Jose in right. Lankford's tounge could be dragging by the All-Star break as he tries to cover the entire outfield. Starting pitching-There is no staff ace at this point, and Jose DeLeon, Omar Olivares, Bryn Smith, Rheal Cormier & Bob Tewksbury aren't going to scare many opposing lineups.

Outlook: If Galarraga's bat comes around, as Torre thinks it will, look for Guerrero to head to the AL as a DH, possibly the White Sox. Offensively, the outfield should improve on last year's numbers, and Zeile is starting to come into his own. The key to staying healthy is Pagnozzi. If he goes down, Rick Gedman will be the catcher. In other words, the Cards would be in trouble. Ozzie has said this will be his final season in St. Louis and he is dedicating it to the fans. If the Birds fall out of the race early, look for them to bring someone up from the farm system to play shortstop. On paper, the Mets would appear to be the team to beat in the NLE. As we know, it's not played on paper. Four team race-Mets, Pirates, Cards and Phils. Sticking my neck out, I just have a feeling the Phillies might pull- it out. The Cubs are the Cubs and Montreal is rebuilding.