New York Mets 2002 Season Preview

The Mets: the only thing predictable about them is their unpredictability; and never more so than in this, their 40th-anniversary season.

After all, last year seemed such an easy year to predict. Coming off the Subway Series, if it ain't broke, don't fix it, right? So they stood pat. And lost 80 games, finishing third. If there's no telling what will happen with the team virtually unchanged, what can possibly be predicted about this season, when so much is different, and so many players are unknown quantities for such a variety of reasons?

To be sure, some things are relatively certain:

? Roberto Alomar will steal 30 bases and bat .310 (Shea Stadium notwithstanding), turn a few dozen double plays and put another screw in his Cooperstown plaque.

? Mike Piazza will also continue his inexorable march toward upstate New York, and since he will get something he hasn't had for awhile - protection, from Alomar, Mo Vaughn, and Jeromy Burnitz - he should start seeing some good pitches again.

? Burnitz will get his share of home runs, and three players' share of strikeouts.

? Jay Payton will continue to disappoint, offensively and defensively, in his third straight potential breakout year.

? Roger Cedeno will steal a lot of bases and get paid too much to do it.

? Armando Benitez will make every save a nailbiter as we wistfully reminisce about John Franco.

Other than that, everything is up for grabs, starting with - of all things, for a Mets team - the pitching.

If there was one thing you could always predict about the Mets, it was consistent pitching. Not this year. After 40 years of teams built around pitching and defense, Steve Phillips has built this one around hitting. So there are no pitching answers; only questions:

? If Al Leiter is going to be the ace, won't he have to do better than the 50% (11-11) he racked up last year? And can he stay healthy? He's already missed time because of a "tweaked" hip flexor.

? Can Pedro Astacio, finally liberated from Coors and no-longer-Enron Fields, get his ERA back under 5 now that he's reunited with Piazza? And what's the deal with his shoulder, which probably should have been operated on during the off-season? Can he stay healthy?

? Who will be the number five starter? Will it be Jeff D'Amico, who - perhaps you're beginning to detect a pattern here - can't seem to stay healthy? Or will it be Bruce Chen, whom the Braves considered less of a prospect than Odalis Perez, not to mention that he has been dealt (first by Atlanta, then by Philly) at two consecutive trade deadlines?

? Why was Shawn Estes so great in 1997, so awful in '98 and '99, so great in 2000, so awful last yearŠ? How big a head case is he? Were the Giants right to pull the plug?

? Which Steve Trachsel will show up this year: the second-half Trachsel, who could win 20 games, or the first-half Trachsel, who could lose 20?

Then there are the question marks in the bullpen, newcomers all except Franco, who is 41 and, -- guess what? -- trying to get healthy. Why is Mark Guthrie still in the majors? Oh, right - he's left-handed. David Weathers fell flat on his butt as a Yankee in '96 and '97, but appears to have gotten his act together since then in Milwaukee. The middle relievers will sort themselves out during spring training (boy, we miss Turk Wendell), but the most interesting is Satoru Komiyama, a seven-time All-Star in Japan who throws six pitches. (Six pitches?)

And then there the position players. We have questions there, too:

? Will Mo Vaughn, um, stay healthy? By all accounts, the bicep tear which kept him on the bench all last season is fully healed. But at age 34, and tipping the scales near 270 pounds, injuries could come more frequently for him. For this new emphasis on hitting to work, the Mets will need Piazza-like numbers from the left side from Vaughn, and a few less strikeouts wouldn't hurt either.

? Will Edgardo Alfonzo transition successfully back to third base? So far in spring training, he's mostly thrown double-play balls into right field instead of to second. By the way, how's his back?

? How well will Rey Ordonez partner with Alomar, who is used to running DPs with the likes of Cal Ripken and Omar Vizquel? And what's the deal with his bat? Bobby Valentine can't be serious about using him in the two-hole, can he? Since Rey-Rey aged two years in the off-season, we're not holding our breath for a sudden hitting surge. (Memo to rookie fantasy managers: don't bother).

? Might a roster spot be found for Darren Bragg? Granted, he's not a starter, but he's such fun to watch, and he plays that scrappy style of baseball that Valentine loves, it would be great to platoon him in the outfield.

And we have a few general questions as well:

? How will all these newcomers mesh in the clubhouse? Franco (the captain) and Piazza are natural leaders, but what how well will they get along with the hot-headed Vaughn, easygoing Burnitz, introverted Alomar and "head case" Estes?

? Where exactly will everyone hit? Will Piazza bat cleanup so that Alomar can hit in his customary third spot? If Piazza hits third so that Vaughn can take the 4-hole, is Alomar's average wasted in the second spot? Will Valentine really try Ordonez and Alfonzo in the two-hole? Where does Burnitz fit into the 3-thru-6 slots? Should Payton and Ordonez be allowed to hit at all? If Valentine starts moving these guys around too much-and you know he will-how will they handle it?

? Can Vaughn and Burnitz cut down on strikeouts? While there's nothing statistically wrong with a power hitter who strikes out a lot, K's do hurt if you can't advance Cedeno and Alomar, especially in spacious Shea Stadium.

And finally, there's the least predictable element of all, Bobby Valentine, who leads the league in lineup changes, has picked fights with fans, and who once got tossed from a game only to sneak back to the dugout "disguised" in nose glasses. With his job on the line if the Mets don't win with their bloated payroll and depleted farm system, anything at all could happen.

Lots of questions, no answers. Which, of course, is the beauty of baseball, the reason they play the games, and the main reason we're so excited about the upcoming Mets season. So this summer, if you happen to see a couple of dorky-looking guys outside Shea yelling, "Anybody got extras?" give us a break, okay?

Ten Years Ago...

Our Mets Preview from April 1992, by Shelly Rodrigues:

Strengths: This team looks like a walking all-star team. Check out the outfield-Howard Johnson, Vince Coleman, Bobby Bonilla. The starting pitchers are a dream---Doc Gooden, Bret Saberhagen, David Cone and Sid Fernandez. The right half of the infield has Eddie Murray & Willie Randolph. old, but not in the way. Even the kid catcher, Todd Hundley, son of Randy, has all-star potential. They are planning on Dave Magadan at third. He struggled last year, but has a .294 lifetime average. Elster doesn't hit much but is sweet on defense. Infield defense is as good as outfield is bad. Newcomer Bill Pecota is a sleeper and I don't mean his constant two-day beard and droopy eyes. He will come in handy at three infield positions. Jeff Torborg is a contemporary-style manager running a hip young team.

Weaknesses: The bullpen sucks-Franco lost 9, blew 6, although he saved 30. Tim Burke was good for Montreal, but disgusting in late season appearances for Mets. It gets worse from there. The starters better go seven, while sluggers pile up 5 runs. Gooden's arm and Sid's weight are essentials. So is Torborg's handling of traditional clubhouse ego trips.

Outlook: Gooden and Saberhagen could win 45, add another 15 for El Sid. HoJo will be this year's MVP, with Bobby Bo picking up some votes. Unless the Mets led the league in injured reserves, this is their year.

Perspective: The '86 Mets were one of the finest ball clubs of the post-expansion era. For the next 4 years, the Big Scorekeeper etched them into second place. Last year the GM and M were gone and Strawman, too---end of an era. They dropped into fifth, although they were 15 games over .500 when the injury jinx hit July 21. They were 24-46 after that. New Yorkers won't stand for that again; with all the bucks and talent, it's take care of business time in the Big Apple.