Milwaukee Brewers 2002 Season Preview

by David Marasco

For years the Brewers claimed that they could not compete in the small-market environment of Milwaukee. So the good taxpayers of Wisconsin went and built Bud and family a huge domed ballpark. Let's face it, it's a nice ballpark. In fact, with its help the Brewers drew 2.8 million fans. According the MLB's own numbers, the Brewers made more money than just about any team in baseball. That's why it came as a surprise when the Brewers let go Jeromy Burnitz and his expensive bat in a trade involving the Mets that many saw as a salary dump. Why should the tax payers build this nice new place if management still pays like a small-market franchise and simply pockets the extra cash? It's a bad idea to make fans angry when you are riding a losing-streak almost a decade long.

With the loss of Burnitz, what does the outfield look like? Well, in left is the young and talented Geoff Jenkins. Strong glove, up-and-coming bat, brittle body. Injuries have limited his development, but at the age of 28 Jenkins is in his prime. After being a big free agent signing last winter, Jeffrey Hammonds spent most of last year on the DL, leaving the question of whether or not he is simply a "Coors Baby" still unanswered. He's slated to bat lead-off, but has a career OBP of .341. Not exactly what you want to see from the top slot in your lineup, but a common problem for the Brewers. Check out the Brewers with more than 300 ABs last season:

Player	OBP
Burnitz	.347
Loretta	.346
White	.343
Sexson	.342
Belliard	.335
Jenkins	.334
Hernandez	.300
Blanco	.290

In other words, the starting lineup made a lot of outs. The fact that they gave a total of 850+ ABs to a pair that had had OBPs of .300 and .290 tells that management either hasn't figured out that OBP is important or the cupboard is just bare when it comes to talent.

Alex Ochoa, who came over in the Burnitz trade, will start in right, with Alex Sanchez and Matt Stairs competing for the fourth outfielder postion.

Moving to the infield, we start at catcher. The Brewers can send out a player with no bat and a good defensive rep in Henry Blanco, or give the nod to Raul Casavova, who brings a better bat, but is recovering from an injury and doesn't have as good an arm.

Over at first is Richie Sexson, who blasted out 45 dingers last year. His case looks strong until you compare him to his true competition, his fellow first basemen. Once the weak-hitting middle-infielders are dropped from consideration, he drops towards the middle of the pack.

The middle of the infield and third base will likely be a jumble of Jose Hernandez, Houston Tyler, Mark Loretta and Luis Lopez, with Ronnie Belliard thrown in for fun. The Brewers always seem to stockpile people who can play 2B, SS and 3B, but not well enough to win a starting position on most teams. If the Brewers can tolerate Hernandez's low-OBP, he can provide some power from short. This is if Houston is playing third rather than Hernandez. Loretta might start the season at second, rather than his traditional short or even third, as Belliard has not lived up to his potential.

This leaves us with the pitching. Which is young young young. Hopefully new pitching coach Dave Stewart can instill whatever it takes into this crew. Jamey Wright and Mets tradee Glendon Rusch are both 27, while Ben Sheets and Reuben Quevedo are 23. Flame thrower Nick Neugebauer is the baby at 21. The last three give hope to fans in Milwaukee, as there is a lot of promise in those arms. They might take quite a beating getting to where they want to be though, and they probably won't get a lot of run support from their lineup. Maybe in 2004...

"Don't Panic, We've Got Leskanic" was a popular saying in Miller Park last year, but the closer had off-season surgery and who knows how he'll return? He's backed by the likes of Chad Fox, Mike Dejean and Ray King. For a team as bad as the Brewers, they have a very solid bullpen.

In the end, the Brewers will sell plenty of season tickets because they are hosting the All-Star Game this year. But they'll probably post yet another losing season. In a few years that nice ballpark that the tax payers built for the Seligs will be mighty empty.

Do Strikeouts Matter?
"I don't look at strikeouts in a vacuum, I tend to look at on-base percentage and slugging percentage rather than strikeouts." ­ Steve Phillips, GM of the New York Mets, on trading for Jeromy Burnitz (.347/.504 with 150 K's)

Yes, last year the Brewers set the all-time record for strikeouts, and even became the first team to whiff more times than they got hits (1399 to 1378). But how bad is that? People always complain that a K is a "non-productive" out, that unlike a grounder to the right-side of the infield, or a long fly ball, runners don't advance on a strikeout, and hence strikeouts are worse than other outs. Well, one third of all outs are the last out of the inning, so right away in a third of the possible cases, K's aren't any worse than other outs. When nobody is on base, why are strikeouts worse than other outs? With a slow runner on first, wouldn't a K be better than a fast-roller to the shortstop?

Let's take a look at what Steve Phillips is talking about. Suppose that strikeouts are as bad as everyone says they are. Then in theory they should have an effect on run production, no? A high strikeout team should score fewer runs than a low strikeout team if K's are so bad. Well, let's look at the relationship between runs scored and strikeouts in the American League over the past five years:

On the other hand, let's look at On Base Percentage and Slugging, as suggested by Phillips:

Next time you see "Joe Slugger needs to strike out less," toss that out the window and look at his OBP and Slugging. Strikeouts seem to have little to do with how well a team scores runs. As for the Brewers, maybe if their team OBP wasn't the second-lowest in the NL they would score more runs.

Ten Years Ago...

Our Brewers Preview from April 1992, by Henry Smith:

Strengths: Paul Molitor without the DL. Yount in center, although his bat is dying. Bosio, Wegman & Navarro, plus a part season from Higuera, who is great when not recovering from surgery, which he always is. There are several on this club who may become stars, particularly outfielders Greg Vaughn and Darryl Hamilton, the former with power, the latter a .300 hitter. B.J. Surhoff is a good hitter; watch him shed the tools of ignorance when awesome Aussie Dave Nilsson recovers from shoulder problems. Old faithful Jim Ganter is a fine second baseman and hit .283 last year, but old like Yount and Molitor (38). Doug Henry replaced Plesac as closer, rest of bullpen is modest.

Weaknesses: They need reliable starter after solid three. Gantner and Billy Spiers are good mid-field, but first and third are unstable. Lack of depth at every position, no exciting newcomers, no help on the farm.

Outlook: They may surprise and contend like they did late last summer or they may struggle. I'm going to be cautious and predict a .500, 4th place finish.

Perspective: It's been a long time since no Trbelhorn has blown in Suds Town. The Brew Crew finished the season 40-19, but were 43-60 before that. Always a streaky club, Brewer Buffs wonder which is the real team.