Cincinnati Reds 2002 Season Preview

by Adam J. Ulrey

Can Griffey Jr. Lead the Reds to the Playoffs?

When Ken Griffey Jr. came to Cincinnati in a trade for what people were calling a bunch of journeyman, baseball was buzzing about the snow job GM Jim Bowden did on the Mariners. Well it's funny how times have changed since that day. The original trade was Griffey for Mike Cameron, Brett Tomko, minor leaguers Antonio Perez and pitcher Jake Meyer. At the time this was one of the lines from a Cincinnati writer, "Bowden tears of laughter now streaming down his face: Oh, Pat, stop!" Here we are two years later and who's laughing now? Personally I think you could make an argument on trading Cameron for Griffey Jr. straight up. Cameron's turned into one of the best defensive center fielders in the game and last year hit 25 homers and drove in 110 runs for the Mariners. He also brings more speed than Griffey ever thought of having, adding 58 steals to the M's attack over the last two years. He is 10 times better in the community and as a teammate the Mariners rave about his leadership and work ethic. You don't exactly hear those words coming out of Cincy about Griffey these days, do you? Dont get me wrong, Griffey is a great player, but he hasn't won jack yet and hasn't endeared himself to any of his teammates over his career. Also, Cameron is 29 and Griffey Jr. is starting to show signs of slowing down at age 32. The last two years the Mariners have been in the playoffs with at least a chance of getting to the World Series. The only chance the Reds have had of seeing the WS is buying a ticket to the games.

As for the rest of the team, Sean Casey will be back at first base for the next four years after signing his new contract, a good move by Bowden. Casey has averaged 20 homers, 90 RBI and in each of the last three seasons has batted well over .300. Hes one of those guys you want in your clubhouse as he is affectionately called a gamer. Todd Walker, who came over in a trade with the Rockies in mid-season will be back at second. He had a solid year, batting .296 with 17 homers, but remember he played 85 of his 151 games played in Coors Field. Let's see what he does in an entire season at Cinergy Field. A player we should be talking about as a future Hall of Famer, Barry Larkin, will play short. Unfortunately, due to injuries in recent years he will probably fall short of the requisite Coopersotwn numbers. Larkin is one of the best shortstops I have ever seen, the problem is lately I haven't seen him as much on the field as I have on the disabled list. In the last 11 years Larkin has played more than 130 games only four times and has played 110 or less five times. He has over 2000 hits and almost 200 homers to go along with 362 steals and a lifetime average of .299, but it won't be enough to get him into Cooperstown. Aaron Boone plays third, and over the last three years he, too, has constantly been injured. Brett Boone's baby brother has put up some terrific stats, but can't seem to stay healthy. He's batted over .280 the last three years and in only an average of 375 at bats has hit an average of 14 homers each year. Jason LaRue, who is a very good defensive catcher but has no bat, will handle the catching. They were hoping he would become a power hitter, but to this point he is nothing more than a good field-no hit catcher.

The outfield will have the great Griffey Jr., who is looking to rebound from an injury plagued 2001 campaign. Does there seem to be a theme here? Yes. This team makes a M.A.S.H. unit look like a picnic they way all the players get hurt around there. Griffey is looking to reclaim his elite status, but the question is can his body hold up? If he is healthy I would be shocked if he doesn't come back and put up a monster year, the problem is it won't matter as his team is not very good. In left field, they have the power hitting future star, Adam Dunn. In his three stops last year from Double A to the majors he hit 51 homers. He hit 19 in just 66 games for the Reds last year. The upside on this kid could be through the stratosphere. He could be the be the perfect complement to Griffey or the pitchers could catch on to him and you could see the famous sophomore slump. The right fielder will be the underachieving Juan Encarnacion, who came over in a trade with the Tigers. At times he looks like he could develop into a superstar, but most of the time he looks like he should be back in Triple A. The question for the Reds is which Juan do they get? If Encarnacion doesn't get it going look for former Texas phenom Ruben Mateo to get a look.

If you think the offense has a lot of questions, look at the starting pitching staff. It doesn't exactly remind you of Drysdale and Koufax. The ace is Joey Hamilton, who has been injured more than he has pitched over the last two years. Following Hamilton you have Elmer Dessens who was 10-14 last year and was one of their better pitchers. The next three are Chris Reitsma, Jose Acevedo and former Brewer Jimmy Haynes. Reitsma was 7-15 with a very high ERA of 5.29. Acevedo started 18 games last year for the Reds and didn't fare much better, with a 5-7 record and an even higher ERA, 5.44. The fifth starter is the often-erratic Haynes who has a lifetime record of 46-64 and an ERA of 5.48. So four of the starting five have ERAs over 5.00 and your best pitcher barely won 10 games, yeah, sure this team is going to compete with the Cubs and Cardinals. They'll be lucky to compete with the Brewers and Pirates.

The lone bright spot will be in the bullpen, where they have a stud in Danny Graves, the closer for the past three years. He has averaged 30 saves over those years and has a lifetime ERA of 3.47. He has gotten plenty of help from Scott Sullivan, who has averaged over 100 innings in relief each of the last four years. Lefty Gabe White came over from Colorado this winter. This is his second stint with the Reds and they desperately need a lefty in the pen. John Riedling, Jim Brower and Hector Mercado will also contribute, but it's not a strong group no matter how you look at it.

This is a team that has no direction. They have a minor league system full of quality players, yet they keep bringing in other peoples' problems like Encarnacion and Mateo, when they have Austin Kearns and others from their own fertile farm system waiting in the wings. Until they find some direction expect them to continue being bottom feeders. This is going to be a long season for Reds fans.

Ten Years Ago...

Our Reds Preview from April 1992, by Mike Brown:

STRENGTHS: Balance, a beautiful blend of ballplayers. Can you name a better rotation? Jose Rijo (a 26 year-old, 9 year vet, Cy winner-in-training). Greg Swindell, a .500 pitcher on a .400 club in Cleveland. Tom Browning. Ohio native Tim Belcher, home from LA. Dibble and Charlton are about all that's needed in the bullpen because these are all 200 inning guys. Offense-Bip Roberts (finally we have a lead-off man), almost-batting champ Hal Morris, Barry Larkin , one of top 5 in bigs today, line-drive smashing Chris Sabo, muscle-man Glenn Braggs, Paul O'Neill, coming off a repeatable career-year. Even Doran, who may be replaced at second by Bip following Braggs hot spring (he'll take Bip's OF spot) comes through. Good bench,

WEAKNESSES: Balance in clubhouse. Dissension racked club in '91, hopefully new arrivals are easier to deal with than cast-offs. Swindell is a Clemens-type, Belcher can be sour O'Neill is moody, Rijo blasted mates, Dibble's a wild-man, Charlton a weirdo, C Joe Oliver a cry-baby. Cincy civil war is not over. Oliver out of favor with Piniella, several back-ups fighting for his job.

GENERAL OUTLOOK-Few kids, no one over 32. Piniella loves to platoon, has 5 good OF's (reserves are Dave Martinez and Billy Hatcher). If Piniella can keep egos in line, no one will beat them. If not, a more mature Atlanta will take the West.

PERSPECTIVE: GM Quinn and Piniella were the Quinderella Boys after coming from Yanks and conquering Oakland in '90. They were bitter enemies in '91, made up after major dealing of winter. If they don't produce, Queen Marge will have their heads.