Boston Red Sox 2002 Season Preview

by James Floto

Pedro and Nomar and, uh...?

Even though the Yankees feel themselves superior to the Red Sox, they respect the hell out of them. What would the Yankee mystqiue have been all these years without the Red Sox? Yet as we all know, the Red Sox have fallen short of their Next World Championship since 1918. However, I don't think this is the team to break the 84-year drought. They are not only not as good as the Yankees, but they aren't as good as the A's or Mariners, Cardinals, Braves, Giants and probably the White Sox and Indians. This year they might not even be as good as a team that has gone even longer without winning a World Series, the Chicago Cubs. The 2002 Red Sox will be yet another good Red Sox team, one that will win 85, perhaps 90, games but as New England has grown to expect, will fall short.

Pedro, when he is not on the disabled list, is probably the best pitcher in the game. But he is spending more and more time on the DL, and in fact has been on the much despised list each of the past three years. When people began predicting a Hall of Fame plaque for him about five years ago, I said, "Yeah, and they said the same thing about his brother Ramon for a couple of years. But these guys are awfully tall and skinny to throw as hard as they do and last long enough to make it to the Hall." Pedro is 132-59 (.691) lifetime with a 2.66 ERA, best by far among active pitchers. Last year he was 7-3 (.700), with a 2.39 ERA before he went down for the season, but he only appeared in 18 games. And behind that baby face he is aging, turning 31 right after the season ends. I hope I am wrong, I love Pedro, but if he is to avoid rotator cuff surgery, he is probably going to have to slow down that 98 MPH bullet he slings, and pitch fewer innings.

Nomar, on the other hand, missed most of last season due to a wrist injury that should be healed--he sat out virtually the whole season, appearing in only 21 games. The wrist bones are relatively delicate and it may take half a season or even the whole year before Nomar is back to 100%, but 85% of Nomar Garciaparra is better than almost any player in the game. Besides his very unshortstop-like bat (he won batting titles in '99 and 2000 with averages of .357 and .372. and averaged 28 homers and 105 ribbies his four full seasons) he is excellent, sometimes extraordinary, on defense.

So who will be filling out the remainder of the lineup? Johnny Damon left the west coast after an unhappy and subpar season in Oakland. He may return to the form he showed in Kansas City in the more structured Boston atmosphere. It's been awhile since the Sawks have had a lead-off hitter with actual speed. Next comes Trot Nixon (.280, 27, 88) who blossomed in 2001 and probably will keep on blooming for a few more years. Ramon spelled backwards (for real--his father, Ramon, couldn't figure out a name for him so just turned his name around) bats third, followed by Manny Ramirez. He lost 150 points in OPS after his move from Cleveland last year, was this a fluke or does it point to a more general trend? First baseman Tony Clark should have been one of the greatest sluggers of his generation. Like Ramirez, he arrives after spending his career in the AL Central, Detroit in his case. He has had some very good years (like three straight years averaging over 30 homers and 100 RBI while hitting about .280) but never a great year. He is enormous (6' 7", 245), but has been bothered with injuries the past two years. Still only 30, if Clark gets hot along with Nomar and Ramirez, watch out. It will take a lot of the pressure of Pedro and fellow starters John Burkett, Dustin Hermanson, and Frank Castillo.

The heart of the order is followed by two players who have at times been pretty awe-inspiring, themselves: first baseman Brian Dabauch (generally a 20-homer, 400 at bat man) and Jason Varitek, who was just developing into one of the game's best hitting catchers when he, like Nomar, went down for the year. If Dabauch can stay steady (a lefty, he often sits out southpaw pitchers) and Varitek can stay healthy, they can be a real force at the bottom of the line-up. Shea Hillenbrand just doesn't produce the way a major league hot corner man is expected to. 12 homers and 49 RBI just isn't good enough for a regular third baseman, and he is not a particularly good fielder, either. Finally, our old TDA pal Jose "Awfulman", as Mr. Offerman was unmercifully tagged by the denizens of Dodger Stadium where for years he supplied 2001 Chuck Knoblauch-type fielding highlights. Only his bat and above average speed kept him in the lineup. Just as this report was being prepared, the Sox announced that they may go with somene else at second. It appears Rey Sanchez, no all-star himself, will be taking over at second.

We mentioned the starting four pitchers earlier: Pedro, then Burkett, Hermanson, and Castillo. In his early days in San Francisco, Burkett had the makings of a staff ace. After winning 14, 12, then 13 games, he was 22-7 in '92 and appeared to be on his way. He was, actually, but on his way to Florida, Texas, and Atlanta rather than to ace status. He still is a servicable major leaguer, going 12-12 with Atlanta last year but with a little noticed 3.04 ERA, which means he can still win with some run support. He doesn't pitch hard, but has a good curve and a straight change-up. Maybe he can spread some of the tricks he learned from Glavine, Maddux and Leo Mazzone to other staff memebrs not named Martinez. Hermanson is another one with solid credentials but nothing fancy. Neither he nor Burkett are the type of additions that make you think "All right, that should put us over the top!" If so, Burkett would have remained in Atlanta, Hermanson in St. Louis, where their former teams are in divisional races and need all the pitching they can get. Following them is finesse pitcher Frank Castillo, who was okay (10-9) his first year in Boston last year after being okay (10-5) in Toronto, after struggling right along with the Cubs for most of the '90s. He isn't going to take them to the mountain top either.

The only way the Sox will win 90 games is if all of those potentially mighty hitters from Garciaparra to Varitek (with Ramierez, Clark and Dauback inbetween) go crazy and have excellent years. Then the three so-so guys after Pedro can be so-so and end up winning 15 games each. And remember, there is no guarantee, sad to say, that Pedro will last the entire season. Hopefully he will pitch a little easier, relying on his pinpoint control and mound presence to nail opposing batters. But he will also have to pitch fewer games, fewer innings.

That means more work for the bullpen. If having a fine closer with one of the coolest, strangest names (Ugueth Urtain Urbina--check it out: all of his brothers first names' start with U, too), means a winning year, then they are in good shape. In the three seasons before he was injured in 2000, he pitched 65-70 games a year, saved 27, 34, then a league best 41 games and kept his ERA down, in 1998 to an incredible 1.30. After coming to Boston late last year, he settled down, looking like the good old Ugueth of old, 9 saves in 10 tries, a 2.25 ERA, 32 whiffs in 20 innings.

Unfortunately, of the middle relievers, only Rich Garces is a rock. Nothing spectacular, but year after year he gets the job done. Rolando Arrojo and Tim Wakefield have both had success as starters at some point in their careers. In fact, Tim "One of the Last Knuckleballers" Wakefield was the ace by default of the Sox in '97, after Clemens left for Toronto and before Pedro showed up form Montreal. He kncukled his way to a 17-8 season, but a 4.58 ERA is not exactly Clemens/Martinez country. At 35, you can't help but think of him as an old-fashioned, washed-up starter playing out the string as a reliever. As for Arrojo, he looked good as a 14-12 rookie for newly minted Tampa Bay in '98, but he hasn't done much since, other than pitch pretty well in Boston's bullpen last year. So you have three guys that are pretty good, but nothing spectacular. A pattern similar to the rotation--one really good pitcher (Pedro, Ugueth) and a bunch of average guys, all the rest of the rotation and bullpen.

Is this club good enough to break the "Curse of the Bambino?" Every time I write about Boston I reiterate: there never was a curse. Ruth was glad to get out of Boston, he belonged in the limelight in New York. He left the once-great but falling apart Red Sox and never looked back, not even long enough to drop a curse on his old club. They don't need a curse. They seem to always come up a little bit short without any help from the Babe.

Ten Years Ago...

Our Red Sox Preview from April 1992, by Paul Rourke:

Strengths and weaknesses: The starting line-up is as good as any in the game. No easy outs here. Although new skipper Butch Hobson keeps fiddling with the order, rival AL starters will toss and turn the night before facing Boggs (lead-off?), Reed, Greenwell, Burks (new clean up hitter), young sluggers Mo Vaughn(1B) & Phil Plantier (RF), Jack Clark, Jody Reed and Tony Pena! Only SS Luis Rivera is a powder puff. Infield defense is solid, Pena is a joy to watch, Burks is one classy center fielder, which is essential, because Green well and Plantier leave much to be desired. Pitching-Frankie V! We like him. Roger's been needing some company. Don't forget Joe Hesketh-he may be Boston's Dave Stewart. After 7 so-so years, he was pressed into service as a starter and went 10-4. Young Mike Gardiner is tough. The bullpen is underrated. Reardon will pass Fingers as all-time saves leader. Jeff Grey was scrappy before his mild (?) stroke, appears healed. Greg Harris had a good year, Darwin is recovered, Tony Fossas is improving.

Weakness: No Vince Coleman's here. Lead foot runners will need all those hits to score runs. #5 starter Matt Young is a basket case. Brunansky is also on the way out and the bench isn't particularly strong. Loss of Quintana to a car accident and subsequent infection will hurt.

Outlook: Toronto, Toronto, Toronto. All I hear is Toronto. Wait until October; the Red Sox will be in the play-offs.