HOUSTON ASTROS--Paul Wysard

The view from here prior to 2000 was that the team would not return to playoff contention. Things turned out that way, and no significant upward movement is likely in 2001.

In the late '90s, Houston controlled its division and was a challenger for the NL title. It capitalized on good pitching and the offensive work of the "Killer Bees." Recently, the better pitchers have left, are in slumps, or resided on the DL. The big gun no, Jose Lima, went from winning 20 games in '99 to nearly losing 20 in Y2K. Shane Reynolds, who own 35 games in '98-'99, and Billy Wagner, who saved 69 during that same period, were both hurt last year. Wagner is reportedly back to throwing heat again, but Reynolds' progress is not as evident. Good stuff was expected from young Scott Elarton. He was 17-7, but a 4.81 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP are suspicious. Octavio Dotel, another youth, showed some punch, with 16 saves and 1.13 K/IP, but he also yielded a hit per frame with a 5.40 ERA. Will he start or relieve? Either way, he must mature, and the rest of a perfect scenario is mandatory for improvement. Lima must cut the gopher balls, Elarton has to repeat, and Reynold and Wagner need strong comebacks. All of the above is not likely to happen. Is the new ballpark the problem? Is it another Coors cloud hanging over the mound? Balls certainly went out of there like popcorn. This second year will be important in discerning whether the staff was simply off the mark or in a hostile home environment.

Two of the Killer Bees remain. One, Jeff Bagwell, is a hornet, stinging repeatedly: .310, 47, 11132, with a whopping 152 runs scored, among the best totals in that category over the past two decades. He won't steal as much anymore, but newer thieves, such as Richard Hidalgo (13 swipes) and Julio Lugo (22) should be able to take up some of the slack. Speaking of those two 25-year-olds, they now represent what could be promising production for the franchise. The former is becoming a premier offensive outfielder (.314, 44, 122, 118 runs). The latter, at 2B or SS, showed average (.283) and some pop (10 HRs) in 420 at bats last year. One also has to like Lance Berkman, 25, who was .297, 21, 67 during roughly two-thirds outfield duty last year. Daryle Ward (20 HRs) has obvious power, and Chris Truby (.260, 11, 59) had a commendable half-season as a rookie at third.

All these younger players must step up in big ways -- either starting or of the bench -- in order for the Astros to be a serious threat.

The other Bee seems the be of the honey variety now: once they sting, they die, and that is where we are with second baseman Craig Biggio. Just three years ago he was rated among the top three keystoners at the plate and on the bases. His lines in the mid and late '90s were typically .300+, 20, 80, with 125+ runs and 35-40 steals. He is 35 now and last year was showing his age and hurting, so a full rebound seems too high.

Catchers were swapped within a larger trade in the off-season. Returning Brad Ausmus is a leader; departed Mitch Meluskey was a better hitter. In sum, Houston has not improved enough. Look for no more than a battle with the Brewers for third in the NL Central.

STATS A FACT: Bagwell is moving into Hall of Fame company. 10-year average line is .308, 31, 109, 107 runs,with 163 hits.